Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – Travelers Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2017 Travelers Championship

The 2017 Travelers Championship Fantasy Preview

What looked like a debacle for fantasy players everywhere after many of the world’s top golfers missed the cut line turned into something magical for a handful of our main picks; including our Top Sleeper Pick; Brooks Koepka.  But before we dissect last week’s results from Erin Hills, lets preview what’s in store for this week’s event at TPC River Highlands.

Moved in the schedule last year to accommodate the Olympic Games, the Travelers is usually played a week after the U.S. Open and has that lull feeling to it.  Some good players have lifted this trophy in recent times – Russell Knox last year, Bubba Watson 12 months prior to that, Marc Leishman in 2012 – so let’s hope those involved this week can shake off their apathy.

An angle of attack this week may be to draft those players not in the U.S. Open field.  They face a 1,000 mile trip from Wisconsin to Connecticut – or four hours on a plane – and after playing in a tough major that is quite some ask to get acclimatized to the East Coast.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the U.S. Open

First off, before we celebrate the Koepka win, let’s start with some of the bad news.  With so many big names struggling through Erin Hills it should come as no surprise that we lost three of our seven picks to the cut, including our Top Tier pick, Jason Day.  But thankfully the playing field was leveled as most people’s fantasy rosters we’re crippled by Day, Rory, and Dustin missing the cut, not to mention Spieth’s rocky performance.

With so many “top tier” guys on the fall, our next-in-line picks certainly produced the fire power to keep us in the money.

With Day exiting Wisconsin on Friday, our next in line was Hideki Matsuyama.  Here’s a guy who shot a “terrible” 74 in round one only to bounce back with 65-71-66 over the next three days to finish second overal and bank 108 fantasy points.  After Matsuyama, we had Justin Thomas who we we’re passionate about picking him at Erin Hills.  His record-tying 63 Saturday was epic and despite his collapse on Sunday, JT still banked 95 fantasy points at a $8,300 price tag.

 
Finally, our shining star.  Our top sleeper pick last week was the winner Brooks Koepka.  Let’s recap our reasoning behind picking Brooks last week:

Brooks Koepka (Odds: 45/1, FPPG: 59.4, GPFP: 66.51 Salary: $9,000)

He’s not your traditional sleeper by any means, but many DFS gamers may miss Koepka this week given that he is surrounded in the listings by more fashionable or recognizable names.

Missing out on his exceptional record in majors would be foolhardy though. His T11 at Augusta earlier this year continued a fine trend for Brooks in majors; since the start of 2014, his record in the four big ones reads 21-13-4-33-18-10-5-4-67-15, so you will be getting plenty of bang for your buck.

Most interesting is that Koepka has been able to change his game based on requirements, faring well in attritional editions of the US Open and Masters and scoring well in the PGA Championship and at Augusta when conditions suited.

Needless to say, our predictions for Brooks were right on the money.

Furthermore, take a look at our Key Fantasy Stats, a tool that allows fantasy players to sort stats of only those players that are in the current week’s field.  In this particular example, we we’re looking at the longest hitter with the highest Strokes Gained Putting on these tough Erin Hills greens between $8,500 and $9,500 salary.  Let’s see what the algorithm spit out:

You guessed it…Koepka!

With Brooks’ big win we have now successfully picked 6 winners out of 28 events (1 out of 5) this season, along with holding onto a 75% “made-cut” percentage.

The 2017 Travelers Championship Field

A bunch of fresh new faces including World No.2 Rory McIlroy and No.3 Jason Day will be in town this week testing out the track for the first time.  As mentioned earlier, both names departed early from the U.S. Open after carding disappointing first round scores.

Jim Furyk (Mr. 58) will return to the course where he made history and will join defending champion Russell Knox at the top of the TPC River Highlands field.

 
Along with those names we’ll see Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, and Paul Casey in Connecticut this week, as well as past-champion Bubba Watson in what should be an epic field for the Travelers Championship.

This Week’s Course Preview

Once again the Travelers Championship will be hosted by TPC River Highlands, which happens to be one of the shortest tracks on the PGA TOUR at “just” 6,841 yards.  It’s very much a different test to that experienced at Erin Hills – good news for those with aching shoulders and legs.

TPC River Highlands is originally a Robert J. Ross design dating back to 1928, but is barely recognizable from then given that it has enjoyed not one but two overhauls since then courtesy of Pete Dye (1982) and Bobby Weed (1989).

 

TPC River Highlands is fairly nondescript in its looks and character.  It’s very short and features a number of different hazards, but greens are average sized and fairly slow, so really there aren’t that many demons lurking.  Strategic shot placement and course management is the order of the day here.

For spectators and anybody watching at home, the so-called ‘Golden Triangle’ of holes from 15-17 can serve up plenty of drama.  They meander around a large lake, so water is very much in play, with a risk-reward driveable Par 4, a Par 3 pitching over the water, and approaches played to the left and then back over the drink on the seventeenth.  It’s a pretty fun way to close out a round of golf….although maybe not for these guys.

Weather Forecast for Cromwell, Connecticut

It seems to be that time of year on the PGA TOUR where hot weather and thunderstorms are irremovable bedfellows.

It’s the same theme in Connecticut this week, with downpours and sunny spells predicted in the days leading up to Thursday’s first tee. It’s worth monitoring this because as Mr 58, Jim Furyk, showed here last year, conditions are infinitely easier when the greens are softer.

It’s a case of suck it and see for Thursday-Sunday, again with sunshine and showers expected. Consult the forecast again late on Wednesday to get a more accurate read ahead of the action unfolding.

Last Year’s Results from the Travelers Championship

The history books show that Russell Knox won the Travelers Championship in 2016 by a shot over local boy Jerry Kelly, but the main event was undoubtedly Jim Furyk firing the first round of 58 in PGA TOUR history.

It was the second title of Knox’s career, and he showed tremendous courage to get over the line.  He sunk a 12ft par putt on the last to confirm victory; that was the beginning of a stellar campaign for the Scot.

But it’s hard to look past the achievements of Furyk as the standout moment of the week, who took advantage of the soft greens on Sunday after overnight rain to post his 58 and move into a tie for fifth place.

Another player who enjoyed the agreeable conditions on Sunday was Justin Thomas, who made nine birdies and five in a row on the front nine to finish T3 alongside Patrick Rodgers.

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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Travelers Championship this Week

Hopefully you’re not suffering to bad from a DraftKing’s “Millionaire Maker” hangover this week.  But don’t worry, both DraftKings and FanDuel are bouncing back with plenty more action for this week’s Travelers.

• PGA $350K DOGLEG [$50K TO 1ST] $33 Entry:  This 12,261-player contest has a total prize purse of $350,000 and will payout to the top 3,010.  Looks like all you need to do is finish in the top 25% to cash in.  We’ll take that chance any day.  And don’t forget,  first place wins $50,000.
• FanDuel $100K Thu PGA Eagle ($20,000 to 1st) $4 Entry:  This field of fantasy players will be around 30,000 and payouts will go to the top 5,825 players.  Those again are some excellent payout odds…especially with our picks in your back pocket!

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Travelers Championship

Last year we had a top five that comprised of Russell Knox, Jelly Kelly, and Jim Furyk; should you need any further persuasion that short, accurate hitters are the way forward here then that is it.

It’s noticeable that the bombers tried to rein in their natural instincts off the tee last year and were found wanting, while those that still gave it a bump didn’t quite get into the mix; none of the top five in the Driving Distance stat – Gary Woodland, Bubba Watson, Tony Finau, Bryson DeChambeau, and Jason Kokrak – finished any higher than 25th.

Knox was solid off the tee (24th for Distance, 30th for Accuracy), but did his best work from then on, ranking fifth for Greens in Regulation and eighth for Putting Average.  With the slow nature of the greens, getting your ball anywhere close gives ample birdie opportunities.  Knox’s winning mark of -14 is around the norm for TPC River Highlands

The Strokes Gained metrics confirm the point, with the Scot racking up his best numbers from Tee-to-Green (+2.175) and on Approach (+1.468).  One angle for daily fantasy gamers to pursue is to dig out the SG stats from last year, find those that performed well from tee to green but perhaps didn’t putt so well; as we know, form with the short stick can come and go in a heartbeat.

If you want more all we can say is, give us a try.  Evan recently did and he went out of his way to brag to the Twitter-verse how great our service is.  Thanks Evan!

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Travelers Championship

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Travelers Championship

Top Tier Pick #1: 

Justin Thomas (Odds: 15/1, FPPG: 78.41, GPFP: 90.95 Salary: $10,200)

We understand that TPC River Highlands doesn’t traditionally give long ball hitters an edge.  Also, accuracy and putting are huge stats this week to focus on.  However, keep in mind we are heading into summer and the season is becoming electric, and that’s because a lot of these guys are in perfect form right now; and that certainly includes JT.  

Justin Thomas is one of the most improved players in golf and from tee-to-green here a year ago, JT clipped +2.376 shots on the field.  After an impressive 63 at Erin Hills and a chance to win it Sunday, there is no tighter player in the field this week than JT.  We don’t mind benching the top three this week to make JT our stud.  It will certainly allow more room for higher priced players. 

After a natural downturn in his heroics of the early season – that’s to be expected from a young man enjoying the first flushes of success – his form seems to be picking up a little.  Aside from the U.S. Open, his T4 at the Memorial Tournament showed his appetite for good golf has returned.

Excellent from tee to green and somebody who can pepper greens from all angles, JT should go well this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach-the-Green – 4th
• SG: Total – 6th
• Birdie Average – 1st

Top-Tier Pick #2:

Patrick Reed (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 62.06, GPFP: 63.30 Salary: $9,500)

Consider Reed and Thomas a 1-2 punch this week on an easier course.  The greens here are a lot slower than what they putted on all last week and Reed’s game is yet another that has come alive recently.  After a three missed cut streak in April, Reed found his swing and returned to form quickly with four of five Top 22s including his T13 last week at the U.S. Open.

This spot is likely to see Casey as the favorite and most fantasy players will roster him after his play last week.  However, Reed looked sharp as a tack last week until the closing stretch and he still managed to put up 77 fantasy points in the process.

Patrick ranks 32nd on TOUR in Strokes Gained Putting and we feel that is the most important stat to look at this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 32nd
• Going for the Green – 37th
• Birdie Average – 51st

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Brian Harman (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 68.17, GPFP: 77.03 Salary: $8,900)

Talk about another guy in rare form.  Although bogeying the final hole to drop to 3rd place is not how you want to finish a major, we don’t think that should phase him coming into this week.

Although he ultimately couldn’t maintain it, Harman dit hold the U.S. Open 54-hole lead.  He’s also played well here in the past with a 3rd place finish two years ago and he’s probably one of the most accurate guys in the field; which works well here (just ask Furyk).

Given that putting is such an important stat this week it’s obviously also worth noting that Harman ranks 11th on TOUR in Strokes Gained Putting.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 11th
• SG: Total – 38th
• Birdie Average – 24th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Jim Furyk (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 39.05, GPFP: 31.24 Salary: $8,500)

If shooting a 58 tells you anything it’s that Furyk’s game couldn’t be better matched for this track.  However, Furyk is just not on a lot of people’s radar this week due to his price tag so we like picking him up in this spot.  The PGA TOUR veteran ranks fist in the field this week in Driving Accuracy; a crucial stat that leads to success here.

Most people will probably opt for a Bubba Watson in this salary range, but we’re sticking with Jimmy this week and his deadly accuracy.  If anyone can navigate this wet Connecticut track, its Furyk.

We understand he’s a crapshoot this week but given the possibility of a similar weather patter to last year and the fact that accuracy and putting are so key, we just can’t pass on Mr. 58 this time around.

Key Stats

• Driving Accuracy – 2nd
• Total Putting – 35th
• Proximity to the Hole – 22nd

Low-Tier Pick:

Chad Campbell (Odds: 100/1, FPPG:48.06, GPFP: 38.05 Salary: $8,000)

Campbell is another super-short hitter that has been playing really nicely of late, posting T13 at Byron Nelson and T10 last time out in the St. Jude Classic.  It was a close call between Knox and Streelman for this spot but we’re liking the potential out of Campbell this week.  The fact that he ranks in the Top 10 in the field in GIR is a real standout.

Even though Streelman birdied out from hole twelve to shoot a 62 and win two year ago and yes, Russell Knox won here last year, we see a form trend in Campbell especially after his T10 in Memphis two weeks ago.  So here again we another dark horse that will be played less than Knox and Streelman.

This guy feasts off of Par 70 golf course and didn’t have to make the trek from Erin Hills to Connecticut so he’ll be well rested going into Thursday.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 26th
• GIR – 35th
• Scoring Average – 25th

Sleeper Pick for the Travelers Championship

Chez Reavie (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 51.73, GPFP: 41.39 Salary: $6,900)

We’re taking sub $7,000 sleepers this week mainly in order to fit a lot of these mid and top tier players on our rosters.  That said, Reavie has been playing some excellent golf of late with a T4 at the FedEx St. Jude Classic and just last week he notched a T16 at a difficult U.S. Open (scoring 71.5 Fantasy Points along the way).  With so much attention going to the big names making the trip to Connecticut Chez is perfect ‘sleeper’ material this week.

Even with a top-heavy field this is the kind of event that a player like Reavie could win.  He ranks 3rd in the field in Driving Accuracy and if his flat stick comes alive he’ll be a force to recon with at TPC River Highlands.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 76th
• SG: Putting – 50th
• SG: Approach-the-Green – 41st

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Travelers Championship

Webb Simpson (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 59.57, GPFP: 57.19 Salary: $6,900)

Here’s another sub-$7,000 players that has shown plenty of good form on short courses of late. Webb comes into TPC RH with a T16 at the Players, T11 at RBC Heritage (Par 71) and fifth at the Dean & Deluca (Par 70).

Last year he gained +2.268 strokes on the field from tee-to-green, but ended up finishing T34 by virtue of a cold putter.  Webb ranks top 25 on tour for SG: Tee-to-Green (25th), SG: Around-the-Green (18th) and SG: Approach the Green (11th).

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach the Green – 11th
• Scrambling – 12th
• Scoring Average – 34th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

Sample Lineup

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2016-2017)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”8.16%” bar_text=”16 out of 196 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”20.91%” bar_text=”41 out of 196 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”39.80%” bar_text=”78 out of 196 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”21.43%” bar_text=”6 out of 28 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”10.71%” bar_text=”3 out of 28 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”75.00″ bar_text=”147 out of 196 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the Travelers Championship with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram