Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – The 2017 U.S. Open

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for the 2017 U.S. Open

The U.S. Open Fantasy Sleeper Preview

It’s June and that can only mean one thing: the US Open….and what an intriguing contest we have in store.

The action will unfold at a brand new course, in a professional golf sense of the word, at Erin Hills in Wisconsin, and with several plotlines rather clouding who we might expect to lift the trophy. Dustin’s a new daddy, Rory’s got a new putter and Jordan’s….well, just being typically inconsistent Jordan.

Throw in to the mix recent missed cuts for the likes of Rickie Fowler, Jon Rahm, and Henrik Stenson, plus a probably absent Phil Mickelson, and we can lick our lips at the prospect of a wide open competition.

That’s good news for sportsbook punters then, as most of you will already know the majors are ripe for a long odds winner. Both Danny Willett and Jimmy Walker were priced at 100/1+ by the bookmakers when they took down The Masters and the PGA Championship in 2016.

The outstanding item on the agenda this week is this Erin Hills course, which will make its Tour level bow this week, let alone its first major hosting. The track welcomed the 2011 US Amateur Championship, where Kelly Kraft took victory over Patrick Cantlay (Jordan Spieth was knocked out in the early rounds), but other than that it is very much a venture into the unknown. Worryingly, the general consensus isn’t great, although apparently it’s not as bad as Chambers Bay. So that’s something.

This is the US Open, so we shouldn’t expect an easy course, and that’s the word on the street this week too. It’s devilishly long, and while yardage will fluctuate from round-to-round we’re expecting something around the 7,600-7,700 yard mark across the board. At least it will play as a Par 72; the first time the US Open has had a such a mark since 1992.

The fairways have been described as wide enough, but the devil is in the detail: there’s only a couple of yards of shorter rough on most holes, which then blends seamlessly into the kind of fescue that you could lose a small child in. Distance AND accuracy is the key off the peg this week.

Erin Hills is built into a typically rugged Milwaukee landscape, with the architects staying true to much of the original formation of the land. The upshot is that many of the greens sit either in bowls or on top of mounds, with undulating fairways providing plenty of run too. Approach play could be the trophy winner this week, with bump-and-run from around the green a risky strategy given the speedy Bentgrass surfaces.

This course will provide a stern test of credentials on any given day, and that’s before we mention the rain (scattered thunderstorms predicted) and wind (stiff breezes too). A brilliant major awaits us this week….but it might not be pretty for the players.

So with all that in mind here are five fantasy sleepers who could go well given what we know about Erin Hills:

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The U.S. Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The U.S. Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

Paul Casey – Vegas Odds 55/1 – Would it be a surprise result if Paul Casey wins the US Open? Possibly, but only because he’s not a prolific winner on tour. Based on pure ability, PC would have notched a big one already.

Tournament organizers have been quick to stress that Erin Hills is a classic heartland course, rather than links-style, but the impressions of those who have visited in the past few days is that links protagonists will feel very much at home. Casey is one of those, and with three major top-10s to his name in the past year (Masters 2016 and 2017, PGA 2016) we have nothing to fear.

Can he get over the line though: It’s a fair question, and with no wins on the PGA TOUR to his name in nearly a decade clearly that’s a factor. But the tee-to-green game is in place, and lest we forget the US Open has played host to plenty of surprise winners down the years.

Alex Noren – Vegas Odds 60/1 – While golf fans across the pond are yet to see the best of him, there really is something truly special about Alex Noren.

The Swede won the BMW PGA Championship at the end of May – about as prestigious an event as the European Tour has to offer, and that was his tenth title worldwide and fifth since July 2016.

So the 34-year-old is blossoming late in his career after missing more than a year with tendinitis in the wrist in 2014, and maybe now is the time for him to break through. Tenth last time on American soil at THE PLAYERS Championship, Noren truly is up there with the best on the planet right now.

Kevin Kisner – Vegas Odds 66/1 – If anybody was in any doubt, Kevin Kisner proved himself to be the real deal when taking down the Dean & Deluca Invitational in May. Incredibly, that’s 12 top-ten finishes since the start of 2016 for the South Carolinian.

Kisner will be looking to make the next step in his career with a big showing in a major, and in finishing T12 at the US Open a year ago he showed that the game is there to compete on the grandest stages of them all.

He might just lack a fraction of length off the tee, but if we are proven wrong and Erin Hills begs for accuracy off the tee rather than distance then Kisner is as well placed as anybody to take the title.

Thomas Pieters – Vegas Odds 66/1 – There’s a swagger about Thomas Pieters that suggests he might just take down a major one day, and as we know youthful exuberance could be a factor this week given the physical examination the players will face.

The Belgian offers a hefty bump off the tee and yet is surprisingly good when finesse is required, with a healthy GIR stat of 66.9% an indicator of that.

A prolific winner on the European Tour, there is something special about Pieters; will he prove it this week?

J.B. Holmes – Vegas Odds 150/1 – After being part of the successful US Ryder Cup team, we had predicted a big year for J.B. Holmes in 2017….and he hasn’t delivered, in truth.

He is yet to finish inside the top-ten of a strokeplay event this year, and that’s a worrying downturn from a highly skilled player.

But what we do like is that the Kentuckian is able to turn it on for the majors – he finished top-five at both The Open and the Masters in 2016, and his obvious power off the tee could be a huge advantage if the winds get up in Wisconsin.

Holmes could join the lengthy list of surprise winners at the US Open this week if he can find some of his best form from a year ago.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the U.S. Open here.

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