Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – Wells Fargo Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2017 Wells Fargo Championship

The Wells Fargo Championship Fantasy Preview

After the ‘time out’ moment of the Zurich Classic last week, it is nice to return to individual strokeplay golf and standard DFS action.

The vast majority of daily fantasy sites are still unable to offer contests for team-based or matchplay events – remarkable given that we are able to accomplish space travel, but still unsure of how to score such an event.  DraftKings have said that they are ‘working on it’ for next year, so hopefully gamers will be able to get their kicks at the Zurich in 12 months time.

Notes to take away?  In-form players (Kevin Kisner, Jason Dufner) and those who recorded top-tens at the Texas Open (Brooks Koepka, Bud Cauley, Kevin Tway, Ryan Palmer, and Cameron Smith) were the smart picks for Zurich; these guys all finished top-10 in their respective teams.  Kisner and his partner Scott Brown could not be separated from Smith and his teammate Jonas Blixt after Kisner’s ridiculous chip-in from way downtown, and they had to contest a Monday morning playoff to see who would take the honors.

And it was Smith and Blixt who triumphed with a birdie on the second extra hole.  That meant heartache for Kisner, who for the second time in a matter of weeks has to settle for a runners-up spot.

When the dust settles on that attention will turn to this week’s Wells Fargo Championship, where an excellent field will commence their preparations for June’s second major: the US Open.  Dustin Johnson will mark his return from the back injury that kept him out of the Masters, and he will be joined by fellow world top-20 stars Jon Rahm, Adam Scott, and Patrick Reed.

hil Mickelson and Paul Casey will look to build upon decent showings at Augusta, while Wes Bryan will return to action after claiming the first – and probably not last – title of his career at RBC Heritage.

We have bad news for course form aficionados: this year’s Wells Fargo will be played at a one-off substitute course, Eagle Point, rather than the usual host Quail Hollow, which is well underway with renovation work ahead of the PGA Championship.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results from the Valero Texas Open

With no DFS for the Zurich last week, our team focused instead on the European Tour’s Volvo China Open where our top pick, Bernd Wiesberger finished with a solid T4.  Although not the most popular event on the European Tour’s event, the Volvo China Open served as an adequate DFS hold-over while DraftKings took a hiatus from the Zurich Classic.

So let’s recap the week before in Texas.  The good news is that all seven picks made the cut and we finished the week with four of our seven picks in the Top 22 including Palmer (T6) and Walker (T13).  Unfortunately our Top Tier pick Charley Hoffman turned out to be a disappointment.  The heavy hitter was on cruise control before the weekend bit him hard with a 73-74 finish.

Our Sleeper Report’s lowest two tier players (the super-sleepers) had am impressive week with their T6 (Sung Kang) and T10 (Bud Cauley) finishes.

With the PGA TOUR season in full swing and one major already under our belt perhaps our most significant statistic is the fact that 40% of our total picks have finished in the Top 25 (62/154) and 75% (115/154) have made the cut.

The 2017 Wells Fargo Championship Field

DJ will be hoping his crocked back has healed nicely for his first competitive start since he took a tumble in Augusta, and you sense he might be desperate to make up for lost time here.

Jon Rahm has shown his proficiency for playing well at courses he has never seen before, while the likes of Adam Scott, Paul Casey, and European Tour star Alex Noren tend to travel well wherever they play.

Recent Tour winners Wes Bryan, Hudson Swafford, and DA Points have the current form angled covered, while defending champion James Hahn will be hoping for some more Wells Fargo magic this week: he had missed eight cuts in a row prior to his victory a year ago!

This Week’s Course Preview

Little is known about Eagle Point Golf Club; which opened in 2011, as it is yet to host a competitive tournament.

Based in Wilmington, North Carolina, Eagle Point measures around 7,400 yards – long in these windy conditions, with Bentgrass greens, gentle contours, and tree-lined fairways, while some holes offering a particularly difficult challenge: the Par 5 fourth measures 640 yards!

Some photos available online suggest that many of the greens are tiered in nature with some severe run-off areas, so accurate iron/wedge play will presumably be essential.

Most intriguing for TV viewers could be the eighteenth hole: a 580-yard Par 5, some players will be able to make the green in two; although beware, as the putting surface is flanked by a pond along its right and back sides – perfect for some Sunday evening drama!

A post shared by Wells Fargo Championship (@wellsfargogolf) on Apr 30, 2017 at 4:51pm PDT

Weather Forecast for Wilmington, NC

Batten down the hatches: we could be in for a rather windy week of golf.

While minimal rain is forecast which is always welcome, the players could be buffeted by strong winds that will reach 18 mph in a meteorological sense but far more severe at localized level.

There is very little to distinguish the four days of the tournament; each will be sunny with some cloud, with these strong gusts being the standout feature in what is sure to be a tough test for the players.

Last Year’s Results from the Wells Fargo Championship

It is extremely satisfying when a player wins an event when they *should* – they are in form, have played well at the course before and are just seemingly well-placed to lift the trophy.  That assurance gives DFS gamers and sports bettors alike confidence that this darn sport can be predictable in its outcome.

And then we have James Hahn.  A year ago at Quail Hollow he made a mockery of all that, triumphing ahead of the likes of Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, and Justin Rose despite missing eight consecutive cuts prior!

There was nothing in Hahn’s game that suggested a big performance was likely, and he asserted the narrative that sometimes when it clicks out on the course, anything is possible.

He had previous having tasted victory at Riviera in 2015, but his victory at Quail Hollow – which came in a playoff against Roberto Castro – was made all the more sweeter by the fact he hadn’t made the weekend of an event in some 13 weeks.

Hahn should have won in normal time, but a three-putt bogey at the eighteenth sent the tournament into overtime.  There he held his nerve after Castro rather helpfully drove into the creek on the first extra hole to hand Hahn his second PGA TOUR win in a year.

[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YhwgMWpsCSY[/embedyt]

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Wells Fargo Championship this Week

DraftKings was one of the DFS sites to have the week off last time out, so they’ve bounced back in style in time for the Wells Fargo Championship.  Not least the return of Fantasy Golf Millionaire!

• PGA $3.5m Fantasy Golf Millionaire: The top 25% of players win a minimum of $50 here.but that’s a drop in the ocean compared to the $1 million top prize!
• PGA $425K Fore: A steady $30,000 is up for grabs to the winner in this $4 entry contest, with the top 40 players home earning a rather tasty $500.

Remember, FanDuel has also jumped into the fantasy golf realm and although their format is a bit unconventional there’s plenty of action to be had there this week as well.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Wells Fargo Championship

In truth, we have very little to go on this week in that Eagle Point has never hosted a Tour-level event in the past.

We’re looking for players proficient on Bentgrass greens and in windy conditions, and any previous form in Carolina – North or South – is welcome.

Other than that, we’re relying on the views of the players to help identify areas of interest.  “It’s a great golf course and fun to play,” so said Harris English, who went on a scouting mission to Eagle Point with Hudson Swafford, Brian Harman, and Patton Kizzire recently.  “There’s not a blade of grass out of place.  It made me want to stay longer than two days.”

The likes of Webb Simpson and Bill Haas are known members of the course, while Carl Pettersson – fresh from a top-20 at the Texas Open – holds the course record of 62 at Eagle Point.  In tournaments like this, a little course knowledge is generally better than none at all.

[membership level=”0″]

Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Wells Fargo Championship

You must be a Premium Member to view our exclusive fantasy golf picks.

Already a member? Sign in Here.

[/membership]

[membership level=”1,2,3″]

Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Wells Fargo Championship

Please Note: Due to the limited events played in 2017, some players have not yet accrued enough stats to qualify for an accurate GPFP.

Top Tier Pick #1: 

Jon Rahm (Odds: 12/1, FPPG: 88.3, GPFP: 113.89 Salary: $11,000)

We’re turning to Jon Rahm as our top-tier pick this week and with good reason: in his first full season as a PGA TOUR campaigner he has been extremely consistent at courses that he would not have played on before, and that’s a good sign ahead of this trip to Eagle Point.

What do we know about the Spaniard?  He drives the ball miles, makes plenty of birdies and can handle tough and windy conditions – he bagged top-five’s at Pebble Beach and at the WGC Mexico, and made the cut at Augusta; not bad considering that the venue tends to chew up debutants and spit them out with relish.

The truth is that we are making a leap into the unknown with our draft this week, but in taking on a player with a near 50% success rate in finishing in the top ten (5 of 11), we’re banking on Rahm’s consistent approach to reward us with another excellent performance.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 6th
• Greens in Regulation – 15th
• Driving Distance – 21st

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Webb Simpson (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 61.4, GPFP: 58.93 Salary: $9,700)

Another North Carolinian, Simpson has been practicing at Eagle Point since Friday according to his Twitter…he’ll be nicely in touch by Thursday’s first tee.

Playing on home soil seems to suit the 2012 US Open champion well; he led the 2012 Wells Fargo Championship after 54 holes and the 2015 edition after 36, so clearly he doesn’t feel the pressure of playing in front of a partisan crowd.

Simpson’s form has been up and down since his second place finish at the Phoenix Open, with three missed cuts in seven starts but, helpfully, an excellent T11 at RBC Heritage last time out signalled a return to his usual outstanding ball striking.

Here’s a little insider information: According to the website myrtlebeachonline.com, Simpson has been a member at Eagle Point for more than a decade.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach-the-Green – 5th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 18th
• Scoring Average – 36th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Bill Haas (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 62.4, GPFP: 49.94 Salary: $9,500)

Bill Haas is a fully-fledged member at Eagle Point, which suggests he has played many rounds at the course over the years.  That gives him a huge advantage over many in the field.

The North Carolinan has shown glimpses of excellent form this season, connecting six consecutive top-10s between October and February.  A semi-final spot at the WGC Matchplay, plus a decent showing at The Masters, kept up the good work, and while a missed cut at the RBC Heritage last time out is a black mark against his name Haas has had time off to get his game in top condition before this event on home soil.

Not the longest driver, Haas’ experience at Eagle Point should give him an edge in terms of course management; negating the lack of power off the peg.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 8th
• Greens in Regulation – 13th
• SG: Approach-the-Green – 32nd

Mid-Tier Pick #3:

Hudson Swafford (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 59.3, GPFP: 70.61 Salary: $7,700)

Swafford joined Harris English, Brian Harman, and Patton Kizzire on a scouting mission to Eagle Point earlier in the season, and that suggests he is ready to launch an assault on another PGA TOUR event.

A winner earlier this year at the CareerBuilder Challenge, the 29-year-old has since followed up with top 10s at the Arnold Palmer and the Houston Open, and a round of 65 alongside partner English was a nice way to sign off at the Zurich Classic.

Not somebody lacking in confidence, Swafford is capable of majorly outperforming his salary here.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 12th
• Greens in Regulation – 29th
• Total Driving – 30th

Low-Tier Pick:

Carl Pettersson (Odds: 225/1, FPPG: 34.7, GPFP: 27.72 Salary: $6,200)

In a week of known unknowns, getting on board the course record holder – who just so happened to record a top 20 in his last strokeplay outing – is a no-brainer this week.

Pettersson studied at North Carolina State University, and so naturally he has played plenty of golf in the state and countless rounds at Eagle Point.

The Swede has made just four cuts of fifteen events this season, and that is hardly going to get the juices flowing for DFS gamers – so ownership should be helpfully low this week.

But T16 at the Texas Open is hopefully some kind of sign that Pettersson is striking the ball well at present.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 52nd
• SG: Putting – 61st
• Approaches from 225-250 yards – 96th

Sleeper Pick for the Wells Fargo Championship

Brian Gay (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 64.4, GPFP: 51.50 Salary: $6,900)

On the back of a pair of top-ten finishes in windy conditions, Brian Gay is a real sneaky sleeper this week.

Both T6 at the Texas Open and T6 at the RBC Heritage, plus T13 at the Sony Open and T28 at the OHL Classic, Gay clearly thrives when there’s a wind blowing – and as the early forecast confirms, a mighty old gale will rattle the bones of the players in North Carolina.

What we particularly like about the 45-year-old is his putting, and on Bentgrass in particular.  He gained more strokes on the field than anybody else on the greens at the Shriners, and so if he can get the ball to the dancefloor in timely fashion this week he should have planet of scoring opportunities.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 5th
• SG: Total – 50th
• Birdie Average – 65th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Wells Fargo Championship

Alex Noren (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 55.7, GPFP: 44.56 Salary: $6,600)

It’s easy to forget that Noren is ranked 12th in the world according to the OWGR, and it’s well-deserved too in a career that features eight European Tour titles.

The Swede has a history of playing particularly well in windy conditions, including wins at Links-style settings at the British Masters, Scottish Open and the European Masters.  All in all, he landed an incredible four titles in 2016.

He missed the cut at The Masters but that followed a quarter-final berth at the World Matchplay, so there is enough form in place to suggest that Noren can deliver one of his best performances on US soil.

Key Stats (European Tour):

• Greens in Regulation: 78.47%
• Driving Distance: 289.13 yards
• Average Putts per Round: 30.13

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineups

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

Sample Lineups

[/membership]

Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2016-2017)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”8.44%” bar_text=”13 out of 154 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”21.42%” bar_text=”33 out of 154 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”40.26%” bar_text=”62 out of 154 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”22.72%” bar_text=”5 out of 22 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”9.10%” bar_text=”2 out of 22 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”74.68″ bar_text=”115 out of 154 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2017 Wells Fargo Championship with other Premium Members.

---

Cover Photo via Instagram