Fantasy Golf Picks & Predictions – 2017 Italian Open

European Tour Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions for the 2017 Italian Open

2017 Italian Open Fantasy Preview

Tyrrell Hatton confirmed that he is the European Tour player to watch in 2018 by successfully defending his Alfred Dunhill Championship title in treacherous conditions in Scotland last week.

The Englishman compiled a tally of -24 across the three Links courses to take the honors by three shots from the fast-finishing Ross Fisher, who was in danger of becoming the first player on the European Tour to shoot a round of 59 before three pars to finish condemned him to a -11 round of 61.

We had recognized Hatton’s upturn in form in our preview for the British Masters, where he again played well to hold the 36-hole lead before falling away. Maybe we should have kept the faith in him for just one more week!

After a two-week UK jaunt, the European Tour returns to continental Europe this week for the Italian Open, where local boy Francesco Molinari will be looking to defend his title.

The PGA TOUR stalwart held off the advancing Danny Willett to claim an emotional win on home soil and become the first Italian to taste success in their own national championship.

Francesco Molinari of Italy waves to the crowds after winning the the…

Francesco Molinari of Italy waves to the crowds after winning the the Italian Open at Golf Club Milano – Parco Reale di Monza on September 18, 2016 in Monza, Italy. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Molinari is back in the field this week, and he will do seriously well to hold off the challenge of what is a high-quality collective by European Tour standards. There’s Masters champion Sergio Garcia for starters, plus his highly rated countryman Jon Rahm, while a strong British charge will be led by Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry and Hatton.

Factor in other European favorites such as Alex Noren, Bernd Wiesberger and Martin Kaymer, plus the last five winners on the tour such as Lucas Bjerregaard, Paul Dunne and Romain Wattel, and we can see the size of the task facing Molinari as he attempts the unlikely this week.

Our host venue is the Golf Club Milano in Parco di Monza, and if you saw pictures only of it you would be convinced it was located in England. It’s a standard lush parkland course that is tree-lined and covered with smatterings of bunkers. The fairways are tight (although the rough is fairly forgiving) and the greens are smaller than average – it really does look similar to tracks like Wentworth to the naked eye. Perhaps it’s no surprise that six of the first eleven home here 12 months ago were from England or Scotland.

Actually, just on that Wentworth link, it is noticeable that Molinari and Rikard Karlberg, the last two winners of the Italian Open, have both finished second in the BMW PGA Championship, while Martin Kaymer, Romain Wattel and Jorge Campillo have recorded top-15s in both events in the past two years alone. Just a thought….

Playing at around 7,150 yards for its Par 71, the Golf Club Milano is a fair course that rewards straight hitting. While the stats are less than affirming, the average rankings of the top 11 last year were as follows:

• Driving Accuracy: 28.00
• Driving Distance: 31.27
• Greens in Regulation: 23.82
• Putting Average: 22.27

Those numbers are hardly enlightening, other than to say a decent all-round game is required, as are plenty of birdies – with opportunities aplenty.

There are three Par 5s here and all average under par last year. Indeed, the fourteenth saw 30 eagles and 309 birdies made over the course of the week, as opposed to just eight bogeys.

Timing is key too, with three of the first four holes averaging under par in 2016 and yet three of the last four holes averaged over par, so it could be a tricky conclusion to what could well be a closely-fought battle.

The Italian Open has been moved to later in the European Tour schedule this year after having a rather nomadic presence last year (it took place in the gap just prior to the TOUR Championship 12 months ago). As a result, the field is stronger and we are expecting plenty of low scores to be made.

So who are we drafting for the Italian Open? Let’s have a look…

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This Week’s Italian Open Fantasy Picks & Predictions

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This Week’s Italian Open Fantasy Picks

Matt Fitzpatrick – $9,600 – With course form of 16-3, it is easy to get excited about this future star anyway, but when you factor in that he played excellently last week and has a decent turn at Wentworth to his name, Fitzpatrick is ticking plenty of boxes for us this week.

He was excellent from tee-to-green in extremely windy conditions last week, ranking tenth for Driving Accuracy and seventh for GIR, and given the strength of the breeze we’re happy to see that the Englishman’s confidence will not be dented.

That T15 at the Alfred Dunhill Links followed T11 at the British Masters and victory at the European Masters, and with a T12 at Wentworth earlier this year we’re happy enough to take the in-form Fitzpatrick over the arguably rusty Rahm and Garcia.

Tommy Fleetwood – $9,400 – When a golfer becomes a father for the first time, it can have one of two impacts: it propels them to a new level of excellence, or they take their eye off the ball and regress to also-ran status for a couple of months.

The early signs suggest that Tommy Fleetwood will fall into the former camp. The new dad smashed the course record at Carnoustie last week with a 63 in trying conditions – a astonishing round of golf, and no mistake – and while he couldn’t quite capitalize beyond a T25 finish he still ranked rather smartly in the European Tour’s mangled tee-to-green standings (7th for Driving Distance, 31st for Accuracy, 20th for GIR).

T7 here 12 months ago, we are of course hoping that Fleetwood’s parental hangover doesn’t kick in this week. But don’t forget he leads the Race to Dubai standings, and has spoken of his determination to finish the season as Europe’s top player.

Martin Kaymer – $8,500 – While his formline has not been mind-blowing, Martin Kaymer has featured nicely in the Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green standings on the European Tour for a number of weeks – especially on the UK swing, where he ranked 1st and 20th for GIR in consecutive weeks.

So it’s the age-old problem of getting that putter hot that separates Kaymer from higher finishes, and perhaps a return to a venue where he has finished in the top-20 in each of his last two visits (T20 last year, solo second in 2015) will provide the catalyst.

The German finished T7 at Wentworth last season.

Alexander Levy – $7,600 – If you add together the rankings for Driving Distance, Accuracy and GIR from the Italian Open in 2016 and divide the number by three – a very crude SG: T2G measure if ever there was one – nobody scored lower than Alexander Levy, who finished T7.

The Frenchman finished T7 at the Alfred Dunhill last week as well, and that was a performance based upon some excellent form with the putter – he ranked tenth for Putts per Round.

So those are some nice converging trends, and we’re happy to take what appears to be a bargain price for an in-form, proven winner on the European Tour.

Nacho Elvira – $7,300 – The Spaniard has shown up nicely for our crude SG: T2G measure of late, ranking top-10 at both the Portugal and British Masters on his way to T7 and T11 finishes.

He’s not somebody that particularly thrives in windy, Links conditions, so last week’s missed cut does not overly concern us – and even then he only missed out on playing the Sunday by two strokes.

This is a guy who typically saves his best performances for mainland Europe – see his T3 at this event 12 months ago, and all in all he’s delivered five top-20 finishes in his last eight starts.

Nicholas Colsaerts – $7,200 – The big-hitting Belgian is just starting to hit some form, and after being co-leader through 36 holes at the Alfred Dunhill he will head to Italy with a spring in his step.

He missed the cut at the British Masters, but that sandwiched T12 at the Portugal Masters and T25 at the Alfred Dunhill, and it is that latter performance that catches the eye. He ranked fifth for GIR in less-than-pleasant conditions, and that suggests his iron game is heating up rather nicely.

Colsaerts has finished inside the top-25 in each of his last two visits to Wentworth, including solo third earlier this year, and while he is yet to dazzle at Golf Club Milano at least course form of 38-20 is a solid platform on which to build.

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