Fantasy Golf Predictions – 2013 PGA Championship

Fantasy Golf Predictions for the 2013 PGA Championship Aug 8 – 11, 2013

Last Week: Last week we picked Tiger to dominate at Firestone, and he did just that.  With that win, our staff successfully picked the winner in the last 4 tournaments – and 5 of the last 8, including 2 majors and 1 WGC event.   That’s pretty impressive being that in those 3 top events the world’s elite make up the field.

This Week’s Preview: As the final major of 2013 kicks off this week, we have a lot to look forward with FedExCup playoff race heats up as well.  A scorching Woods, Mickelson and Kuchar will be in the field this week among most of the same faces we saw at Firestone last week.  Players will be fighting their way through Oak Hill to earn last minute FedExCup points before the playoffs begin on Aug 22. Oak Hill Country Club will be playing host to the event and defending champ Rory McIlroy will be in the attendance.  Rory has struggled through most of the 2013 season and has yet to pick up a win this year.

The Course: Oak Hill Country Club (East) measures 7,163 yards and plays as a par 70. The course was built in 1926 on farmland and has received much acclaim for its brilliant design.  Oak Hill has played host to the U.S. Amateur, U.S. Open, PGA Championship, Senior U.S. Open, Senior PGA Championship and Ryder Cup. Lee Trevino picked up his his first professional win at the 1968 U.S. Open at Oak Hill and Jack Nicklaus won the PGA Championship Oak Hill by a record seven shots when the venue made its PGA Championship debut back in 1980.

Photo by OakHillCC.com

The Weather at The 2013 PGA Championship in Rochester, NY (from weather.com)

• Round 1: Thursday (Aug  8) 77 degrees, 30% chance of rain, isolated T-Storms.
• Round 2: Friday (Aug 9) 81 degrees, 10% chance of rain, partly cloudy.
• Round 3: Saturday (Aug 10) 75 degrees, 10% chance of rain, partly cloudy.
• Round 4: Sunday (Aug 11) 74 degrees, 20% chance of rain, partly cloudy.

2012 Results: Rory McIlroy absolutely dominated the field last year to claim his second major win in record fashion – eight shots clear of his nearest competitor.  The young Irishman shared the lead with Vijay Singh until terrible thunderstorms halted play during the third-round at Kiawah Island.  Rory put an exclamation point on the victory when we drilled a 25-foot closing birdie for his final shot (one better than Jack Nicklaus’ seven-shot win at the 1980 PGA Championship).   Rory hasn’t been playing the same golf since his dominating season last year…some say it’s the new Nike clubs, but we feel that he simply fell out of his groove and until he finds it again, we’re going to stay away from picking him.

Notes: It’s easy enough to go with Tiger this week, but we’ve seen him win 5 non majors this year all the while striking out at the major events.  What is it about Tiger at majors? Our guess is that the big stage has become a bit of a mental obstacle, but with his “lights out” level of play last week, that’s certainly not enough of a reason to count him out this time around.  Rory McIlroy arrives at his title defense still seeking a win this year and a chance to compete at the FedExCup. We all heard him acknowledged being “brain dead” while missing the British Open cut, his third MC in six starts since May.  So the concern there still lingers.  Looking around the rest of the field there’s no question we love Mickelson and Scott in majors this year so keep a sharp eye out for them.

Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2013 PGA Championship

• Tiger Woods (Golficity Odds 5/1): Tiger is super fresh off of his win at Firestone where he ran away with a huge lead from his record-setting second round.  Woods ranked T11 last week in fairways hit, second in GIR, first in proximity and first in par-4 scoring. He has 2 top-6 finishes in majors this year but we feel his 5 year major drought will end very soon with the way he is playing. We’re all in on Tiger this week at 5/1 odds on the Oak Hill track.
• Phil Mickelson (Golficity Odds 12/1): Phil is going to need his driver at Oak Hill, no doubt about it – and he’s been lights out without it. Phil is one of, if not the hottest player on TOUR right now, ranking eighth in strokes gained-putting, and inside the top 15 in par-3, par-4 and par-5 scoring.
• Adam Scott (Golficity Odds 18/1): The 2013 Masters champ seems to eek his way into our Top 5 quite often but has disappointed since Augusta. He tied for 14th at the World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational where he ranked sixth in total driving, T16 in greens hit and 18th in strokes gained-putting.  Scott is a dominant player and loves showing up major events.
• Hunter Mahan (Golficity Odds 30/1): Hunter is making his first start as a father. As you may remember, he recently had to withdraw midway through the RBC (where he was leading the tournament) to jet home for the birth of his daughter. He had placed T9 at Muirfield the previous week. Mahan’s game has been pretty consistent this year and he’s a major contender for sure.
• Bill Haas (Golficity Odds 32/1):  Hass finished T7 at the WGC-Bridgestone which was his fourth top 10 in six starts and a TOUR-leading ninth on the season. With one win already this year, Haas has been heating up before playoff time. He ranked T12 at Firestone in greens hit, 10th in strokes gained-putting and T3 inside 10 feet. Vegas has Haas around 55-1 but we don’t feel that’s quite generous enough for how he’s playing right now.

Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win:

• Keegan Bradley (Golficity Odds 38/1):   Bradley went T2 with Stenson last week while trying to defend his WGC title. Keegan has five top-four finishes in 2013 and is beginning to heat up as well.  He actually led the field at Firestone in total driving and greens in regulation and can hit the big stick well…a key factor at Oak Hill. Vegas has him about 35-1 as well.
• Henrik Stenson (Golficity Odds 45/1): Stenson finished co-runner-up at Firestone with Keegan Bradley and that makes him no worse than a T3 in his last three starts worldwide. He also ranks sixth on the PGA TOUR in fairways hit, second in greens in regulation and seventh in adjusted scoring.  We love this guy and Vegas has him at a 25-1 which tells us that he could possibly win this thing outright. We just don’t see it as a lock – pick cautiously.

Last Week’s Fantasy Golf Predictions Results (2013 WGC Bridgestone Invitational)

• Tiger Woods (Golficity Odds 8/1): WINNER
• Phil Mickelson (Golficity Odds 12/1):  T21
• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 18/1):  T27
• Brandt Snedeker (Golficity Odds 25/1): T33
• Adam Scott (Golficity Odds 32/1):  T14

Last Weel’s Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win:

• Lee Westwood (Golficity Odds 40/1):   T40
• Henrik Stenson (Golficity Odds 50/1): T2

Oh, and just for a laugh, here’s how our man Bubba Watson is practicing for the 2013 PGA Championship:

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(Cover Photo Credit)