Fantasy Golf Predictions – Open de Portugal

European Tour Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions for the Open de Portugal

The Open de Portugal European Tour Fantasy Preview

Ah the European Tour: it giveth with one hand and then take with the other.

A week after delivering a gimmick-heavy but enjoyable enough event in the Golf Sixes, something of a trial team-based format with shot clocks and fireworks, they go and blow any momentum they may have gotten from introducing a new fanbase to golf by staging a ho-hum tournament co-sanctioned by the European Tour that lacks any star quality whatsoever.

To make matters worse for daily fantasy punters, the host venue – Morgado Golf Resort – was only built in 2011 and has never hosted an event of any worth so far.

All that we know about it is that it plays to the public at Par 73, with five Par 5s, at around 6,400 yards – yep, you read that right.  You suspect that extra tee boxes will be added to lengthen proceedings, but realistically this is as short a golf course as you will see in a professional event.  But with the European Tour website being so devoid of useful information, we’re left clutching at maybe’s rather than definites.

From images on the web we can say that this looks to be a links-style course, and the fact that it was designed by the team at European Golf Design (responsible for renovation at Wentworth, Castle Stuart and Le Golf National) bears that out.  Flat fairways are punctuated by deep pot bunkers and adjoining lakes, with large, sympathetic greens an indicator that a low winning mark could well be possible.

The sportsbook favorite this week, Ricardo Gouveia, told the Challenge Tour website that he had played Morgado ‘lots of times,’ and his assessment was that it is a short but challenging course where the wind can be a factor – again adding fuel to the ‘Links’ fire.

Our six picks this week all have a common bond: they are either a quality Links-style operator or have shown up well in full European Tour events this season, with any form in Portugal or on European Golf Design courses an added bonus.

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Our Open de Portugal European Tour Fantasy Picks and Predictions

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The Open de Portugal European Tour Fantasy Picks

Ricardo Gouveia – $11,600 – He’s the only player remotely approaching a ‘must pick’ this week, with a number of trends converging rather nicely.

As a Portuguese playing in his home tournament, Gouveia has been effusive in his happiness that his homeland has a tournament to call its own again.  “It’s great for the Challenge Tour because it’s going to be one of the biggest events of the year for them, one of their Majors, and the fact that it’s in Portugal just makes it a bit more special for me,” was what he told the Challenge Tour website.

The 25-year-old has played pretty well in Portugal in the past, finishing T22 in the Portugal Masters of 2016 and the Madeira Open of 2015; the former being a fully sanctioned European Tour event with a decent field.

His form is good too, with a trio of top-40s in main tour events marking him out as one of the elite players in this field: T19 at Trophee Hassan, T26 at Shenzhen International, and T36 at the China Open.  He and playing partner Jose-Filipe Lima also reached the quarter final of Golf Sixes, playing some decent stuff along the way.

Gouveia burst to prominence in 2015 when he broke the record for most prize money earned in a season on the Challenge Tour; a run which featured three wins and 12 top-ten’s in just 18 starts.  He will be hoping to land his first European Tour trophy this week.

Aaron Rai – $9,900 – Currently ranked first on the Challenge Tour after winning March’s Kenya Open, Aaron Rai will be looking to make a massive statement here in only his fourth European Tour start.

It’s been a case of so far, so good for the 22-year-old on the main tour, with a pleasing T45 at the Australian PGA Championship backed by a really eye-catching T7 at the Jo’burg Open and T34 at Trophee Hassan.

He’s shown form on Links-style tracks too, finishing T11 at the Scottish Hydro and T10 at the Irish Challenge (both Challenge Tour events in 2016), so if Morgado does play in a windy, parkland fashion then the Englishman should be well placed.

Short off the tee, Rai has hit 81% of fairways and 73% of greens this term – very handy indeed.

David Drysdale – $9,200 – A two-time European Tour winner, Drysdale hasn’t really kicked on in his time on the main tour, but an event like this could provide an excellent opportunity to do just that.

He’s made the cut in four of his last five European Tour starts, which is a help, and even in missing the weekend at the Volvo China Open last time out he was only one shot shy of the cutline.

Drysdale has complied a trio of top-20 finishes this term, landed five of the same last season, and has eye-catching returns at the Portugal Masters of 2015 (T16) and Scottish Open 2016 (T13) to his name.  If conditions get windy here, the Scot should feel right at home.

Eddie Pepperell – $7,900 – There are two reasons we’re drafting Pepperell this week: his excellent record in Links golf and a performance earlier this season which suggested he was playing decent golf.

The Englishman led the Indian Open after 36 holes back in March, and while he fell away slightly from there conditions were brutally tough at the hugely testing new course they had built there.

Otherwise his season has been in a disaster, but in a field like this that is so short on quality it might just be worth taking a punt on Pepperell.

He has played well on parkland and Links courses in the past, finishing T8 at the Irish Open and T22 at the British Masters in 2016, plus a pair of top-five’s in the Irish and Scottish Opens of 2015.

The 25-year-old won a Challenge Tour event in 2012 and was crowned Portuguese Amateur Open champion in 2011. Could those good memories spur him on this week?

Sebastian Soderberg – $7,200 – Many DFS gamers will be taking a leap into the unknown this week with so many unfamiliar players to them, so steal a march on those guys by drafting Sebastian Soderberg.

The Swede has shown up fairly well as a rookie in his three European Tour starts this term: T11 at the Jo’burg Open, T26 at the BMW SA Open, and T48 at Trophee Hassan.  Most pleasing is that he averaged 15.66 birdies per event, which suggests he could be a key asset for daily fantasy aficionados this week.

A former Challenge Tour event winner, Soderberg finished T4 in his last trip to Portugal (Madeira Islands Open ’15).

We’re unsure how this Morgado course will play of course, but Soderberg’s key stats this season – average driving distance 302yds, Greens in Regulation 67%, average putts per GIR 1.78 – suggest a skilled all-round game.

Joel Stalter – $6,800 – The Frenchman won on the Challenge Tour in 2016 in Sweden, and he has shown enough promise in main tour events to suggest he is one to watch this week.

He burst out of the gate with a lovely trio earlier in the campaign: 23-14-7 at the Alfred Dunhill Championship, Hong Kong Open and BMW SA Open respectively.

Then came four consecutive missed cuts, which is obviously a huge worry, but he seemed to return to his best at the Trophee Hassan in his last start with a T19 finish.

Stalter was something of a star in the American collegiate golf system, winning five titles, appearing in the amateur Palmer Cup and even being as highly thought of as contemporary Brooks Koepka for a while.  He could cash in on that potential in Portugal.

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Cover photo via Instagram