Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2016 PGA Championship

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for the 2016 PGA Championship

The 2016 PGA Championship Fantasy Sleeper Preview

The final major tournament of the 2016 season is upon us as a large field of talented golfers set their sights on taking down the PGA Championship in Springfield, New Jersey.  The site of this year’s event is Baltusrol Golf Club, a par-70, 7,400-yard course which will be the host of this prestigious tournament for the second time, the first coming back in 2005.

So far, the first three major have provided some tremendous entertainment between the come-from-behind victory by Danny Willet in the Masters, Dustin Johnson finally locking down a major with a gritty win in the U.S. Open, and finally, one of the most amazing Sunday match ups occurred in the Open Championship when Henrik Stenson out-dueled Phil Mickelson to claim his first major victory.

Since the last time that this tourney was held here, there have been winners from six different countries, including the likes of Rory McIlroy (2012, 2014), Martin Kaymer (2010), Yang Yong-eun (2009), and Padraig Harrington (2008) from outside of the United States. Most recently, though, was Australian Jason Day, who captured this trophy last year amongst his flurry of victories which inflated his world ranking to the top. He was able to complete this task thanks to an amazing four days, resulting in 20 shots under par and defeating runner-up, Jordan Spieth, by three strokes. The last visit to Baltusrol came in 2005 and it was a dogfight from the beginning as the players battled bad weather throughout the event and needed a Monday finish to finally decide things in the end. Phil Mickelson was the eventual winner in that installment, holding at least a share of the lead each day while fending off Thomas Bjorn and Steve Elkington by a single stroke as he captured his second of five majors to date.

Mickelson will make his way back to Jersey as he looks to build off the heartbreaking runner-up finish at the Open Championship a few weeks ago and will of course be surrounded by elite talent. All eyes will be on frontrunners Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, and Jordan Spieth as they attempt to get back in the winner’s circle after watching current Official World Golf Rankings No. 2 golfer, Dustin Johnson, light up the leaderboards of late. Joining this field at the top of the odds will be No. 5 Henrik Stenson, fresh off of his Open Championship win, and a trio of talented players from outside the U.S. in No. 8 Adam Scott, No. 10 Sergio Garcia, and No. 11 Justin Rose. All but three of the golfers from the OWGR Top 100 will be in attendance this week, with No. 91 Charles Howell III and No. 94 Ian Poulter sitting out due to injury while No. 69 Jaco Van Zyl continues prep for the Olympic Games.

Jhonattan Vegas proved once again that you do not need to be a favorite to win a PGA TOUR event after nailing down the RBC Canadian Open, and he was joined by a few other underdog names (Jon Rahm, Martin Laird, Rickey Barnes, Alex Cejka, Steve Wheatcroft, Geoff Ogilvy, Jard du Toit) in the Top 10.  The majors are the toughest to scope out true underdogs who have a real chance given the strength of the field, but even looking at the Open Championship, where the likes of Tyrell Hatton, Andrew Johnston, Matthew Southgate, and Andy Sullivan were in the Top 12, proves that each of these players has the talent to put up a huge performance on any given week. Below are a few names that should make their way up the leaderboard despite little faith from Vegas.

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The 2016 PGA Championship Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The PGA Championship Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

Jason Dufner – Vegas Odds 66/1 – Dufner had struggled over the previous two seasons, ranking 90^th and 88^th in the FedExCup standings, before getting things back on track in 2016. He currently sits in 17^th thanks to 19-of-22 (86%) cuts made and five Top 10’s, including his fourth TOUR victory at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am back in February. He heads to New Jersey on the heels of eight straight visits to the weekend and did great in both of the majors during that stretch, tying for eighth at the U.S. Open and 22^nd in the Open Championship. Overall, Dufner has six Top 10’s in 30 career major appearances, and certainly knows how to win one as he did so at the 2013 PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club, beating out Jim Furyk by two strokes behind 75% of GIR hit. He will look to nail a ton of greens once again as he currently ranks eighth in the category (69.44%) while also showing an accurate drive (63.57%, 50^th on TOUR), leading to a scoring average of 70.170 (16^th on TOUR). Dufner is not afraid of the tough talent he will face this week and will certainly compete for his second PGA Championship trophy come Sunday afternoon.

Steve Stricker – Vegas Odds 100/1 – Stricker may being near 50 years old, but he is by no means slowing down, as the 12-time PGA TOUR winner ranks 88^th in the FedExCup standings after four Top 11 showings in his last seven outings. In that time, he nearly grabbed a win with a runner-up in the St. Jude Classic and proved he can still hang with the best after a tie for fourth in the Open Championship. Stricker has always enjoyed playing on the biggest of stages, as evidenced by his 31 career Top 25’s over 66 majors, but he has yet to get a win. He’s made the cut in his last six PGA Championships, with an average finish of 14^th, and has two sevenths (2012, 2014). What Stricker lacks in distance (275 yards per drive, 192^nd on TOUR), he makes up for with one of the best putters in golf (0.930 strokes-gained putting, 2^nd on TOUR) while being the best at saving strokes around the green (68.11% scrambling, best on TOUR). He does not get into trouble often, and will throw his name in the mix once again when he hits the links at Baltusrol this week.

Gary Woodland – Vegas Odds 100/1 – Woodland has made it his business to be one of the best golfers on TOUR who cannot lock down wins. He does have two from 2011 and 2013, but has failed to grab one in the past three seasons (68 starts) despite getting four runner-up finishes amongst 31 Top 25’s. He had another second place in 2016 at the Barracuda Championship and will look to continue playing well this week after four finishes in the Top 21 over his last five outings, including a fourth at the Memorial Tournament and a tie for 12^th at the Open Championship. A huge drive (306.5 yards per drive, 9^th on TOUR), tremendous approach game (68.49% GIR, 21^st on TOUR), and the ability to score on par fives (4.54 average, 3^rd on TOUR) has kept Woodland in the Top 45 of the FedExCup standings since 2013, and he should be able to add to his 14 cuts made over 19 major tournaments with the outside chance at a Top 5 finish.

Bill Haas – Vegas Odds 125/1 – While Haas does not generally perform well in the U.S. Open and Open Championship, he has done great in both the Masters and the PGA Championships, with 11 straight cuts made between the two. He even put up his best effort in the Open Championship a few weeks ago with a tie for ninth, giving him his first career major Top 10. With that confidence on his side, Haas should be able to build on a solid 2016 campaign which has seen him go 15-for-19 (79%) in cuts made with nine Top 25’s, two of which were in the Top 3. He nearly pulled in his seventh TOUR win with a playoff loss in the Valspar Championship and a third at the Quicken Loans Nationals thanks to improved putting on those weeks. The flat iron isn’t typically his calling card, so when it is on, he can take advantage of his 66.93% GIR (51^st on TOUR) and put up a better score than his already solid average (70.303, 20^th on TOUR). Hass has always done a decent job in majors, but will aim to prove he can do more than just make the cut and instead give the elite a run for their money.

Andy Sullivan – Vegas Odds 125/1 – At 29 years old, Sullivan is somewhat of a late bloomer, and just began competing in PGA TOUR events during the 2015 season after playing exclusively overseas previously. In 2015, Sullivan earned three victories on the European TOUR as he found his swing, and 2016 has also been a productive year, with two Top 25 finishes in three major starts. After a 23^rd at the U.S. Open, Sullivan pulled it together for an even better showing in Scotland, where he tallied a score of one-under and came in 12^th. Overseas, he has shown to be at the top of the game in a wide range of areas, ranking 23^rd in GIR (71%), 55^th in Putts Per GIR (1.772), and 12^th in Sand Saves (68.4%). Watch out for Sullivan to continue a run of six consecutive finishes in the Top 23 between the two tours when he finishes his four days at the PGA Championship.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the PGA Championship here.

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