Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2017 CareerBuilder Challenge

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for the 2017 CareerBuilder Challenge

The 2017 CareerBuilder Challenge Sleeper Preview

The PGA TOUR returns to the mainland this week with the Careerbuilder Challenge; formally known as the Bob Hope Classic (until 2012).  This event is unlike most during the year as it features a 54-hole cut after the players have each played a round on one of the three featured courses.

Both PGA West’s Nicklaus Course, a par-72, 7,204-yard venue, and La Quinta Country Club feature a par-72. 7,060-yard layout will be played once as the players put most of their focus on getting to play the PGA West Stadium course (par-72, 7,300 yards) a second time on Sunday.

After two weeks in Hawaii, the players will feel a lot better about their chances here thanks to current FedExCup leader Justin Thomas taking a week off.  The 23-year-old pulled off a Hawaiian sweep between the Tournament of Champions and Sony Open, earning his third and fourth career victories while posting a ridiculous combined score of 49-under in the wins.

With the format of this event once going five days behind the heavy contingency of celebrity players, many of the top names would shy away from making the trip to California, and as a result the past decade hasn’t seen many of the elite golfers taking home the trophy here.  The likes of Charley Hoffman (2007), Bill Haas (2010, 2015), and Patrick Reed (2014) certainly prove that some more established golfers have done well among a typically weaker field that has also allowed D.J. Trahan (2008), Mark Wilson (2012), and Brian Gay (2013) to dominate.

It takes a lot of scoring to top the leaderboard here as the victor has averaged nearly 27 strokes under par with five of the past seven installments ending with either a playoff or a one-shot difference.  Last year was no different as Jason Dufner posted a final score of 25-under-par and held off David Lingmerth over two extra holes.  It was Lingmerth’s second playoff loss in this event since 2013.

We will have the privilege of watching Phil Mickelson’s first start of the calendar year as the two-time champion (2002, 2004) looks to add to his 42 career PGA TOUR wins; none of which have come since his Open Championship victory in 2013.  Another former champion, Patrick Reed, represents the top player from the Official World Golf Rankings, coming into this week ranked ninth after being bumped a spot thanks to Thomas’ recent hot streak.

Some the other well known golfers teeing it up this week include top-50 players No. 16 Paul Casey, No. 25 Emiliano Grillo, No. 33 Francesco Molinari, No. 37 Zach Johnson, No. 41 Kevin Kisner, No. 42 Bill Haas, and No. 47 Kevin Na.  Of course we will need to continue keeping an eye on 22-year-old Jon Rahm out of Spain who has four top-10s in a mere 15 career starts.

With so few big names on the entrants list this week, the door will be open for a few sleepers to make their way to the top of the leaderboard.  Over the last few seasons we have seen Park Sung-joon, Steve Wheatcroft, Robert Garrigus, and John Mallinger all come in as the runner-up here despite owning a single career win between them.  That said, below are a few long-shots we think could make some noise in Cali and outplay their Vegas odds come Sunday.

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The 2017 CareerBuilder Challenge Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The 2017 CareerBuilder Challenge Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

Lucas Glover – Vegas Odds 50/1 – Glover has had a poor recent stretch of seasons with zero finishes within the top-100 of the FedExCup rankings since his 45^th back in 2011.  Last year was his best since then, coming in at 106^th after 15-of-23 made cuts (65%) and six visits to the top-25.  The 37-year-old has really taken off this year, though, and through just four events already has two top-fives; including a his first top-three finish since 2011 with a solo third at the Shriners Open behind four rounds of 69 or better.  His ball striking has been immaculate with 78.97% of greens hit in regulation (9^th on Tour) leading to 15^th-most strokes gained total on the field (1.802).  He currently ranks in the top-50 in both driving distance and driving accuracy, leaving putting as his only weak point.  Glover has done well here in the past with three top-20s in five starts since 2009 and should be able to continue his nice beginning to the 2016-17 campaign.

Jon Huh – Vegas Odds 66/1 – Although Huh has not taken off like it looked like he would after starting his career with consecutive seasons finishing in the top-45 of the FedExCup standings, he has remained a consistent force on the PGA TOUR and made it to the weekend 53 times over 87 starts (61%) between 2014 and 2016.  His steady play has allowed him to kick off the New Year in fantastic fashion, going 6-for-6 in cuts made with a top-10 at the Shriners Open.  He’s been under par by double-digits at each of his last four starts and is currently riding a streak of eight consecutive rounds in the 60s due to his ability to scramble (72.22%, 12^th on Tour) and gain strokes with his approach to the green (0.761, 26^th on Tour).  He should stay out of trouble this week and improve on his start last year when he came away from this event in 24^th.

Sean O’Hair – Vegas Odds 66/1 – O’Hair is a four-time winner on the PGA TOUR, and despite not taking down a tournament since 2011, he has been close with three runner-ups.  He quietly put together an impressive 2015-16 season with a final finish of 27^th in the FedExCup and has had nearly identical seasons over the past two years with 18 cuts made out of 26 events in each campaign.  O’Hair hopes to get back to the winner’s circle at some point this year, and thus far has given himself a chance with three visits to the weekend in his first three starts, following up a tie for 10^th at the Shriners Open with a tie for 11^th last week in Hawaii.  It is no surprise to see those finishes given he has had a lethal combination of driving distance (311.6 yards per, 12^th on Tour) and putting (0.861 strokes gained, 21^st on Tour) over his 12 rounds.  The 34-year-old has never done much in this event, but he is a nice pick given he generally flies under the radar and is hot at the moment.

Adam Hadwin – Vegas Odds 80/1 – We’ve seen a lot of potential in Hadwin since his first full season on Tour in 2015 when he had seven top-25s over 30 starts and finished just outside of the top-100 in the FedExCup.  He improved last season, making 20-of-27 cuts (74%) while jumping into the top-100 with an 85^th in the final standings.  The 2016-17 campaign will be a year in which the Canadian competes for wins a few times and this will be a nice place to get started as he is coming off of a sixth place finish here last year thanks to hitting 75% of both greens in regulation and fairways and going 20 shots under par.  Hadwin has an all-around game with his driving being his biggest weakness, but he can make up for that with his ability to save strokes around the green (0.385 strokes gained, 40^th on Tour) and hit greens consistently (75.4%, 52^nd on Tour).  The win is coming and we would not be at all surprised if it came when Sunday rolls around at PGA West.

Alex Cejka – Vegas Odds 120/1 – Cejka has now tallied 330 starts on the PGA TOUR since his first outing in 1996 and has just a single win to his name.  That victory came recently after he topped the leaderboard at the Puerto Rico Open in 2015 and that has aided him in finishing the past two years in the top-85 of the FedExCup standings while matching career-highs in top-10s (4) and top-25s (9) last year.  The German hasn’t exactly torn it up thus far in the new season, but going back six events, Cejka has played all four rounds five times with three top-25s.  He knows how to do well here with a 13^th in 2011 and 15^th in 2015 and will be able to navigate these greens thanks to his 0.692 strokes gained putting (32^nd on Tour) through the first few tourneys of this year.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the 2017 CareerBuilder Challenge here.

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