Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – Farmers Insurance Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2017 Farmers Insurance Open

2017 Farmers Insurance Open Fantasy Preview

Overall not a bad week having picked the winner of the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and Mr. 59, Adam Hadwin who put up a TON of fantasy points.  We’ll break down last week’s results below, so first, let’s get prepped for Tiger’s 2017 debut at The Farmers Insurance Open.

With such a thin field and occasionally hazardous weather conditions, it was always possible that a surprise winner – possibly even a maiden – would prevail at the CareerBuilder Challenge, and so it proved with Hudson Swafford taking the title just ahead of the latest member of the 59 Club, Adam Hadwin.

Swafford, a birdie machine at his best, has long been fancied to get over the line in a Tour event but has never quite lived up to the promise: his -20 in such a chaotic pro-am event is testament to his promise.  His T13 at the Sony Open seven days prior confirms the poorly-kept secret that all DFS managers should abide by: current form is key in unlocking future champions.

The players will be hoping for better weather in California this week, and San Diego specifically, for the Farmers Insurance Open, which was one of the most downright bizarre events of the 2016 calendar.  Treacherous storms caused untold damage to the Torrey Pines course and forced a Monday finish, with Brandt Snedeker eventually prevailing at -6 with the average final round score a remarkable 77.9 – the highest in PGA TOUR history.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the CareerBuilder Challenge

Last week we ran with Bill Haas as our horse pick and he certainly did not disappoint.  The veteran finished the week with fifty-three pars, sixteen birdies, one bogey free round, only two bogeys all week,  and two (3-hole) birdie streaks.  Add in 5 points for the 17th place finish and Haas banked a total of 86.5 fantasy points for the week.

You might also remember that our two sleeper picks last week were Martin Laird (T9) and Chez Reavie (T12).  Laird had an impressive outing with 99.5 fantasy points while Reavie closed with 90.5.

The Tuesday “Long-Shot” Sleeper Report saw three of the five picks make the cut including Sean O’Hair (T9) and Adam Hadwin who had a phenomenal fantasy week with forty-four pars, twenty-four birdies, three bogeys and a 2nd place finish.  Hadwin banked fantasy owners a whopping 117.5 fantasy points and was dirt cheap to own coming in at 80/1 Vegas odds.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship

We killed it last week overseas with five of our six European Tour picks making the cut including 4 top 13 finishes and the winner picked!  Our Tommy Fleetwood pick was the silent killer that help many of our Premium Members cash in nicely.

 

Fleetwood’s forty-eight pars and nineteen birdies combined with his 1st place finish banked him 120 fantasy points which was a must have to win big in the stacked field last week.

The 2017 Farmers Insurance Open Field

The two-time champion here Brandt Snedeker will attempt to defend his crown in an excellent field that features Tiger Woods, on his full return from back surgery that has more-or-less kept him sidelined for a year and a half.  Torrey Pines was the scene of his famous US Open win of 2008, and Tiger still holds the 72-hole record here of 266 set back in 1999.

They will be joined by an illustrious cast of competitors, with Dustin Johnson – fresh from his second place in the Abu Dhabi Championship on the European Tour – as well as former Farmers champ Jason Day, Hideki Matsuyama, and Rickie Fowler adding the polish to an outstanding early season field.

Phil Mickelson will also tee off at his hometown course – a track where he has missed four cuts in his last five starts – alongside his Ryder Cup colleagues Brooks Koepka, Jimmy Walker and JB Holmes.

This Week’s Course Preview

The Farmers Insurance Open is another event featuring rotated courses, although it is not as extreme as the CareerBuilder: only two tracks are used here, Torrey Pines North and South, with all players enjoying a round at each on Thursday and Friday before the weekend is played out exclusively on the South course.

The South track is the harder of the two and at a mammoth 7,698 yards for its Par 72 requires some long and clean ball striking for maximum success.  Even accounting for the awful weather which left the winning mark at -6 in 2016, the prior two title-taking scores in 2015 and ’14 were -9, which identifies that this is not an out-and-out birdie fest a la the CareerBuilder.

Torrey Pines South features small and fast Poa Annua greens with minimal fairway to hit off the tee – Total Driving will surely be a key factor here, and it is the longest course currently on PGA TOUR rotation.

The North course is a little more forgiving although a 2016 redesign from Tom Weiskopf, the man responsible for the TPC Scottsdale course, may change that.  He used all of the right buzzwords – “the important thing for me is to make it challenging but fair…memorable, and a fun experience that is a totally different look for its future,” – and so we will have to wait and see how that transposes itself as the action unfolds.

Historically, the North course has played 7,258 yards with Bentgrass greens and wider landing zones than its South counterpart.

Weather Forecast for San Diego, CA

Happily, there is nothing in the early weather forecasts to suggest a repeat of the Sunday shenanigans experienced 12 months ago.

The tournament is unlikely to be blessed with blazing Californian sunshine, although at least the rain is expected to keep largely at bay.  But the main problem could be the wind, with breezes of around 20-25km/h compounded by localized gusts of up to 46km/h!

This could well be desert golf at its finest, with Friday and Saturday set to be the windiest days of the week.

Last Year’s Results from the Farmers Insurance Open

The blueprint for Snedeker’s success here in 2016 was to keep his head while those around him lost theirs; a run of 73-70-70-69 might not look like title-winning form, but when you consider he was still five shots clear of the bunch of players in T8, you understand just how efficient Sneds was.

Sunday’s apocalyptic storms accounted for a number of contenders: KJ Choi (+4), Jimmy Walker (+4), Jonas Blixt (+5), and John Huh (+6) all disappearing from view – and yet all still finished inside the top-10.  Dustin Johnson was a live championship contender at -6 heading into the final round but could only muster 80 through the last 18 to finish in a tie for eighteenth.  Snedeker was the only player to shoot under par on Sunday/Monday.

So, in some ways we can’t read too much into last year’s results given that the data has been skewed awfully by the chaotic final 18.  Needless to say, there will be plenty in the field looking for a sense of revenge this week.

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This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday-Friday, 3-7 p.m. ET (Golf Channel).
  • Saturday, 1-2:30 p.m. (GC), 3-6 p.m. (CBS).
  • Sunday, 1-2:30 p.m. (GC), 3-6:30 p.m. (CBS).
• Mobile Broadcasts (PGA TOUR LIVE):
  • Thursday-Friday, 11:45 a.m.-3 p.m. (featured groups), 3-7 p.m. (featured holes).
• RADIO: (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com)
  • Thursday-Friday, 1-7 p.m. ET. Saturday, 1-6 p.m. Sunday, 1-7 p.m. (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com).

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Farmers Insurance Open this Week

The reappearance of DJ and Day, plus one lesser-spotted Tiger, has gotten DraftKings in a bit of a flutter this week, and their roster is jam-packed with an eclectic array of contests.

Here’s the pick of ‘em:

• PGA $500K Drive the Green: Can there be a more fun way to turn $3 into $100,000?  You’ve got to be in it to win it, and this contest – which rewards the top 70 with a minimum of $100 – is worthy of investment.

• PGA $15k Long Drive: With such a varied field this week it may be advantageous to attack smaller contests, and this 166-team tournament – with its $100 buy-in and $3000 top prize – looks ripe for the picking.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Farmers Insurance Open

Looking at Brandt Snedeker’s Strokes Gained stats from 2016 we don’t learn all that much: Putting (+0.37), Off the Tee (-0.37), Tee to Green (+1.45), Approach (+1.22), and Around the Green (+0.60) are fairly unremarkable, and the simple conclusion we draw is that Sneds was the right man at the right time.

Clearly though, his previous win at Torrey Pines in 2012 offered some kind of insight, and this is a guy who has recorded seven top-10s at this course in eleven starts.  Jason Day previewed his 2015 victory with finishes of 9-2 in his prior pair of starts, while the likes of Jimmy Walker, Marc Leishman, JB Holmes, and KJ Choi all have a string of top-10 finishes to their name here.  It seems as though course history is a big plus point this week; no debutant has ever won at Torrey Pines.

Further investigation of Snedeker’s numbers 12 months ago reveals that accuracy off the tee is a lot less important than distance – he hit just 41% of fairways while driving an average of a shade under 300 yards, but hitting greens is of optimum importance (77.78% of greens hit).

Key could be taking advantage of the scoring opportunities on Par 5s: Sneds played these in -4, the Par 3s in -3, and the Par 4s in +1.  Lastly, players comfortable in typically blustery Californian conditions should have an edge on the house.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Farmers Insurance Open

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Farmers Insurance Open

Please Note: Due to the limited events played in 2017, some players have not yet accrued enough stats to qualify for an accurate GPFP.

Top Tier Pick : 

Dustin Johnson (Odds: 8/1, FPPG: 107.8, GPFP: 100.28 Salary: $11,100)

In life, there are times to be cute and tactful, and there are others where gathering your tanks on the lawn and preparing for battle is the way forward.  It is the latter option we are seeking with the world number three.

If all things had been equal, DJ could and probably would have won the Farmers Insurance Open in 2016 but for those Sunday storms, and that came at a time before he was classed as a natural winner in his pre-US Open days. Torrey Pines suits his eye.

He’s in good form – finishing second at the Abu Dhabi Championship at the weekend in decent company – and that came on the back of a T6 at the Tournament of Champions in his other start in 2017, so Johnson is striking the ball nicely.

A noted wind player – that could be handy this week, DJ performs consistently well on Californian tracks and Poa Annua in particular, and naturally as one of the longest drivers on the planet he especially thrives on lengthy tracks.

From a DFS perspective, DJ picks up points left, right and centre, and he could well be lifting this trophy come Sunday.

Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee – 1st
• Driving Distance – 1st
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 8th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Gary Woodland (Odds: 45/1, FPPG: 110.5, GPFP: 88.4 Salary: $8,600)

Woodland is one of those guys that comes to life on certain track, and having gone five from six at this difficult Torrey Pines test – with a trio of top-30s to his name – he should be an excellent points accumulator here.

The 33-year-old is a noted wind player who has performed admirably on Poa Annua in the past, and in his last three starts he has finished no lower than eleventh: he was second at the OHL Classic in November, T11 at the Franklin Templeton Shootout and T6 at the Sony Open a two weeks or so ago.

A long driver who comes alive around and on the green, it’s a surprise that Woodland has only two PGA TOUR titles to his name.  He’ll be looking to add to that tally this season, and Torrey Pines seems like the perfect fit.

Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Total – 5th
• Strokes Gained: Putting – 12th
• Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green – 13th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

JB Holmes (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 91.00, GPFP: 72.80 Salary: $8,200)

We’re looking for long hitters with a bit of finesse this week, and JB Holmes fits the bill a treat.

We’re expecting him to have something of a breakout year in 2017 – the Ryder Cup can have that effect on players, and this looks as likely a place as any for that charge to begin: JB has finished T23, T2, and T6 in his last three visits to Torrey Pines.

Nobody hit the ball further off the peg than Holmes in 2016, and his short to mid-length approach play is excellent too, so as long as the putter is hot we can expect huge things from JB this week.

Key Stats:

• Driving Distance – 1st
• Approaches from 125-150 Yards – 4th
• Birdie Average – 8th

Low-Tier Pick #1:

Charles Howell III (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 94.8, GPFP: 122.23 Salary: $7,300)

If you’re looking to have a Vegas flutter this week then steer clear of Chucky Three-Sticks; at 50/1, he is the same price as former major winner Louis Oosthuizen, a winner already this term in Brendan Steele and a red-hot contender for this crown in JB Holmes.

But for DFS managers on his favorite courses, CHIII is an absolute Godsend – and he looks extremely good value at $7,300 this week.

A true horses-for-courses kind, Howell III is five-of-five at Torrey Pines with four top-20 returns in that time, and for a player that does every facet of golf pretty well expansive tracks like these suit him.

He’s capable of going long when the mood takes him, and with an excellent short game we anticipate few errors from him this week.  Another top 20 here would extend an incredible run which has witnessed the 37-year-old finishing no lower than T15 in any of his last six appearances since November.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 14th
• Greens in Regulation – 22th
• Driving Distance – 32nd

Low-Tier Pick #2:

Martin Laird (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 99.00, GPFP: 104.94 Salary: $6,500)

You would wager that DraftKings have rather gotten their pricing wrong this week: $6,500 for a guy who loves playing in California, finished T9 last week and whose last three starts at Torrey Pines have yielded 37-7-8?  We’ll have some of that!

The Scotsman is a specialist in this neck of the woods, and growing up in Scotland he will have become accustomed to playing breezy golf; no wonder his record in California is so good.

Laird is one of those players who tends to go under the radar a bit, but for DFS managers looking for a low-tier pick you won’t find much better form than 8-27-13-9 from four starts since the start of October.

Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green – 6th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 9th
• Par Breakers – 20th

Sleeper Pick for the Farmers Insurance Open

Brendan Steele (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 100.00, GPFP: 126.00 Salary: $8,000)

As a player that has finished T6 in his last pair of outings, you wouldn’t typically class Brendan Steele as a ‘sleeper,’ but without any notable course form to his name we expect his ownership to be low this week.

Steele has gone five-of-six at Torrey Pines but never bettered his T17 in 2011, so by that reckoning he might slip under the radar of less conscientious DFS managers this week.

The Californian native did the business last week at the CareerBuilder, finishing T6, to go with his sixth at the Tournament of Champions, and don’t forget that he triumphed at the Safeway Open back in October too.  This is a player at the peak of his powers, and on home turf into the bargain.

Key Stats:

• Bogey Avoidance – 1st
• Strokes Gained: Total – 14th
• Par 5 Scoring Average – 7th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Farmers Insurance Open

Robert Garrigus (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 94.00, GPFP: 84.60 Salary: $6,200)

Anyone seeking a bargain-basement pick to help them add value to their draft could do a lot worse than Robert Garrigus this week.

He’s made five cuts from seven starts here but each of his last four visits have been successful with a return of 49-64-23-6, and there’s form in the bag too with a T17 at last week’s CareerBuilder Challenge.  Indeed, with an opening 54 holes of 68, 69 and 66, he could have breached the top-10 but for a final round of 73.

There’s no shame in carding +1 on the Sunday at the tough Stadium Course at TPC West however, and having hit 74% of greens and played the Par 5s in -5, Garrigus is well primed for another decent Californian jaunt.

Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee – 12th
• Birdie Average – 20th
• Par Breakers – 23rd

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineups

Sample Lineup #1

Sample Lineup #2

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2016-2017)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”4.76%” bar_text=”3 out of 63 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”23.81%” bar_text=”15 out of 63 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”38.10%” bar_text=”24 out of 63 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”0%” bar_text=”0 out of 9 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”0%” bar_text=”0 out of 9 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”68.25″ bar_text=”43 out of 63 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2017 Farmers Insurance Open with other Premium Members.

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