Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2021 American Express

The American Express Fantasy Sleeper Report

It may have taken a while for Kevin Na to establish himself as a prolific winner on the PGA TOUR, but boy has he taken to the task in recent years.

His victory at the Sony Open was his fourth in as many seasons, meaning he joins an elite group including Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau in landing a quartet of titles within that timeframe.

Na was nicely placed heading into the final round, and took full advantage of a meltdown from Brendan Steele – for the second year in a row at Waialae – to kick on and finish one stroke clear of Joaquin Niemann and Chris Kirk, playing the weekend in an astonishing -14.

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He’ll try his luck this week too at the American Express, which will have a different look and feel to it in these COVID times. Normally a pro-am jolly played across three welcoming courses, this year the amateurs and the celebs will have to watch on as home as a fully pro field tackles just two of the normal courses on rotation.

PGA West remains the host venue, but this year the players will take on the Stadium course, designed by Pete Dye with his normal extensive bunkering albeit on a more scoreable layout, and the Nicklaus course, which as you may have guessed was designed by the Golden Bear and which can be taken to the cleaners by the best in the business.

Of course, normally the tracks are set up in agreeable fashion to meet the pro-am demands, and so maybe they will play tougher this year with longer rough and slicker greens. Sadly, we’re unlikely to find out until Wednesday when we may get a sneak peak at how the courses are shaping up.

In the meantime, we’ll have to base out bets around the things we do know – West Coast specialists tend to thrive in this event, as well as those comfortable in breaking par when putting on these Bermuda greens.

Here’s an interesting bit of info to warm the cockles of bettors: the last two winners here, Andrew Landry and Adam Long, went off at odds of 200/1 and a whopping 600/1 respectively! That is perhaps because they got the best of a draw bias and a decent amateur partner, but even so split course events can throw up unusual winners and so we should be ready to take advantage.

With that in mind, here’s our selection of sleeper plays for The American Express 2021.

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The American Express Fantasy Sleeper Report

Adam Long – 60/1 – A winner here in 2019, Adam Long has kicked on nicely since.

The facts speak for themselves – 2020 was the best year of Long’s professional career, with solo second at the 3M Open and T3 at Mayakoba two of his most lucrative paydays in the game.

Those were backed by T13 at the U.S. Open, solo eighth at the Houston Open and solo fifth in the Corales Puntacana Championship confirm that Long is a more consistent performer these days, and so a return to a former happy hunting ground will surely yield positive results.

Adam Hadwin – 66/1 – Sports betting does require a leap of faith sometimes, and in backing Adam Hadwin that’s exactly what we’re seeking.

The Canadian was in derisory form after golf’s initial suspension last spring, and a T4 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic was the only performance anything like his best.

But, and it’s leap of faith time, his formline in this event reads 2-3-2-6, which is the match of absolutely anyone in the game. We have to assume that returning to the venue will spark positive feelings in Hadwin, and with several weeks to work on his game behind closed doors his odds of 66/1 could look very generous come Sunday.

Gary Woodland – 80/1 – Like Hadwin, Gary Woodland’s best form is a long way in the rear view mirror.

But time away from the sport over the festive period could well have had a positive effect on a guy whose best day in golf – winning the 2019 U.S. Open – came in California.

In fact, dial back through Woodland’s career and you find a catalogue of strong showings out west, and those with the longest of memories will remember his T2 here back in 2011.

Joel Dahmen – 90/1 – When you look at the strengths of his game, and the kind of courses where he normally thrives, Joel Dahmen should in theory do very nicely at PGA West.

And yet, in his two trips, he has missed the cut, and maybe the takeaway is that he doesn’t enjoy the traditional pro-am format.

Well, there’s no Larry the Cable Guy to put him off this week, and so he can get down to business – which has been serving him well of late, with T8 in the ZOZO Championship and T20 at Mayakoba within his last three starts.

With 11 top-tens on the PGA TOUR, the light-hearted Dahmen is not somebody who should be written off as a comedy golfer.

Michael Thompson – 125/1 – Michael Thompson did as Michael Thompson does at the Sony Open – getting the ball to the green in decent enough order before landing putts left, right and center.

Fair enough, that’s his modus operandi, and it’s brought him two PGA TOUR titles and a canon of top-10s, so why not add a third in California this week?

Three consecutive top-25s on the PGA TOUR, heading to a venue where he has a top-10 to his name in the past, suggests the trends are converging rather nicely for Thompson.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for American Express here.

Sleeper Report Predictions This Season (2020-2021)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”1.42%” bar_text=”1 out of 70 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent= “11.76%” bar_text=”8 out of 70 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”30.00%” bar_text=”21 out of 70 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=0%” bar_text=”0 out of 14 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”7.14%” bar_text=”1 out of 14 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”81.42%” bar_text=”57 out of 70 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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