Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2021 American Express
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2021 American Express
The 2021 American Express Fantasy Preview
What a difference a week makes in golf.
Kevin Na was hopeless at the Tournament of Champions last week, almost finishing last and looking completely out of sorts in all departments of the game. Fast forward a week and he’s winning the Sony Open, carding a final round of 65 to vanquish Joaquin Niemann, who took the silver medal for the second week in a row, and Chris Kirk, who’s scrapping hard with his tour card under threat.
A word for Brendan Steele, who capitulated at Waialae for the second year in a row. Holding the 54 lead once again, he played the back nine in +2 to once again trip himself over in the pursuit of glory.
But Na won’t mind, and he joins a stellar cast of Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau of players who have won in each of the last four PGA TOUR seasons.
The action stays over in the West this week as we move on to the American Express, which will take on a different vibe this time around. There will be no pro-am format, no Bill Murray and no La Quinta – the normal three host courses have been trimmed to just two, and the cut brought forward to the traditional 36 holes.
Otherwise, it will be business as usual for all involved in the Coachella Valley.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Danny Berger was our guy last week, and he showed some life. Berger had a whopping 19 birdies on the week and only 6 bogeys in total among the 4 days of play.
Despite his solid play, he ended up T7, which was not enough for a push into the large cash zone.
To those who played the Na/Kirk combo last week, cheers to you!
The 2021 American Express Field
Jon Rahm’s late withdrawal has left something of a vacuum at the head of the field this week, with former American Express champion Patrick Reed arguably now taking top billing.
Patrick Cantlay, something of a West Coast specialist, returns home to California, and he will be joined by Brooks Koepka and Matt Wolff, who will be teeing up for the first time in 2021.
Sony Open victor Kevin Na is scheduled to make the trip, as will the perennially hard-working Sungjae Im, Abraham Ancer, Tony Finau and Scottie Scheffler.
Other notables include John Augenstein, the U.S. Amateur runner-up in 2019, making his pro debut, promising Korean Joo-Hyung Kim and Michael Kim, fresh from his first made cut in an eternity.
This Week’s Course Preview
As mentioned, to meet COVID restrictions only two courses will be used this week, with the La Quinta layout kicked to the curb for one year only.
These layouts are found at the PGA West venue, with the Stadium and Nicklaus courses on rotation. The Stadium course measures 7,133 yards for its Par 72, and the identity of the designer – Pete Dye – reveals what the players can expect.
This is the toughest of the two layouts, with some 90 bunkers and water in play on seven holes, and rough that measures two inches in length. Laid with Bermuda, the Stadium course is a touch easier than the usual Dye fare but still requires full concentration.
The Nicklaus course was designed by the Golden Bear himself, and this 7,160 yard Par 72 is an absolute doozy for the pros – rounds of 64 are expected, rather than the exception. Wide fairways and receptive Bermuda greens are there for the taking.
Weather Forecast for La Quinta, CA
The players are in for a cool and settled week in California.
A mix of sunny spells and cloud are expected, with a top temperature of 73˚F on Thursday dropping to 64˚F over the weekend.
The wind can be a factor in this part of the United States, but the early forecast suggests there will be no worries in this department with top speeds of 9 mph anticipated.
Last Year’s Results for the 2020 American Express
Even with two young studs chasing him down, Andrew Landry kept his nerve to secure himself the unlikeliest of victories and his backers a handsome 200/1 payday.
Shooting no worse than 66 across the opening three days, Landry showcased quality golf and shredded nerves in equal measure on the Sunday, birdieing the first three holes of the back nine before bogeying the next trio to hand back his advantage.
But further birds on seventeen and eighteen completed the job, and Landry celebrated as Abraham Ancer and Scottie Scheffler considered their ‘close but no cigar’ efforts in solo second and third respectively.
Highlights | Round 4 | The American Express 2020
No Description
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the 2021 American Express this Week
With less confusion this year with only two courses in-play and no draw bias to worry about, we can finally give the American Express the attention it deserves from a DFS perspective.
- PGA $600k Approach: The big money play this week, this $12 contest pays out a huge $200k to the winner and a very handsome $1,000 – at least – to the first 12 players home.
- PGA $100k Drive the Green: For those on a slightly tighter budget, this $5 contest still offers plenty of chance to accumulate prizes – the top 22.5% win at least $8, and multi-entry players will note the $25k top prize with relish.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2021 American Express
Normally the American Express is a right old pickle to try and decipher, with six-hour long rounds, celebrities hacking up and the headache of trying to solve the mysteries of the draw bias.
Those issues will be lessened this year, and so instead we can treat the 2021 edition of the American Express as a normal golf event – hallelujah!
As ever at this juncture of the campaign, our initial instinct is to strike a line through anybody who has yet to make a start this season – cobwebs take some time to shake off, as Kevin Na has shown us these past two weeks.
Some players love it on the West Coast, but note that we’re on Bermuda greens rather than the Bentgrass or Poa Annua you might normally expect – that will make a difference to your shortlist.
Even with La Quinta struck from the rotation, there will be plenty of birdies made this week and that is a defining factor – although, surprisingly to us, there is still an emphasis on finding fairways rather than an all-out birdie hunt. Landry and 2019 champion, Adam Long, ranked third and twelfth respectively for Driving Accuracy, which gives an idea of where competitive advantage can be found.
Both are decent, streaky putters when the ball is rolling for them, and as is usually the case on easy assignments where there’s little danger from tee-to-green a red-hot flat stick could be the difference-maker this week.
[membership level=”0″]
Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2021 American Express
You must be a Premium Member to view our exclusive fantasy golf picks.
Already a member? Sign in Here.
[/membership]
[membership level=”1,2,3″]
Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The 2021 American Express
Top Tier Pick #1:
Scottie Scheffler (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 73.2, GPFP: 58.57 Salary: $9,500)
Scottie Scheffler will win on the PGA TOUR soon, and you suspect it will come in an event like this where there is something of a premium on finding the fairways – and making birdies, of course.
His third-place finish here 12 months ago was no coincidence given his proclivity for success in these conditions, and now that his COVID diagnosis is behind him Scheffler can focus on fulfilling his potential in 2021.
There’s plenty of good stuff in the bank recently, with T19 at the Masters followed by a healthy enough year’s opening at the Tournament of Champions.
A birdie machine, if the going is good for Scheffler then he has the firepower to win….could that maiden title be in the offing this week?
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy – 15th
- Birdie Average – 17th
- Approaches from 125-150 yards – 71st
Top Tier Pick #2:
Abraham Ancer (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 79.4, GPFP: 63.55 Salary: $9,100)
There was a strange curiosity last week in that Abraham Ancer, who the week prior had ranked third for SG: Putting, missed the cut at the Sony Open when his flat stick went completely ice cold.
On the positive side, the Mexican’s ball striking was in good order, and if his putting returns to its baseline he should perform far, far better this week.
His solo second last year was a guide to his suitability to this unique test at PGA West, and having banked three top-20 finishes in his last four starts Ancer is, perhaps, well placed to go one better this time around.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy – 7th
- Greens in Regulation – 28th
- Birdie Average – 33rd
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Charles Howell III (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 67.1, GPFP: 83.93 Salary: $7,800)
A solid first start of 2021 last week brings Charles Howell III into focus.
Whilst never likely to start fires with his play, Chucky is a solid pro with a silky smooth putting stroke, and with some perceived weakness at the top of the field and some surprise winners of this event in the past that might be all that it takes to get the job done.
As reliable as ever, Howell III banked a top-30 at the U.S. Open and easily made the cut at the Masters, and those performances at a higher grade than this should be of interest – as should improving form of T23 and T19 at Mayakoba and Waialae respectively.
A second place finish in 2013, plus four other top-20s, confirms that Howell III enjoys this assignment, and he seems as solid a play as anybody for DFS enthusiasts.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 11th
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 42nd
- Greens in Regulation – 44th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Talor Gooch (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 62.1, GPFP: 49.65 Salary: $7,400)
We can forgive tepid return performances after some time away from the PGA TOUR – just see Kevin Na’s Hawaiian transformation, and so Talor Gooch’s missed cut at Waialae, which came on the number, can be taken with a pinch of salt.
Instead, let’s focus on the positives. He was solo fourth at the Houston Open and solo fifth at the CJ Cup, and as another certified Par 5 birdie machine that has performed well in the west in the past he is certainly worthy of a second look.
A formline of 17-4-67 in this event confirms that good times are on the table for the 29-year-old, whose long, straight driving should present plenty of opportunities to thrive.
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 17th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 28th
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 54th
Low-Tier Pick:
Tom Hoge (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 77.2, GPFP: 54.58 Salary: $7,100)
When considering your sleeper plays, you shouldn’t be too hasty to fade those that missed the cut the week before – especially when there were positives to be taken.
Tom Hoge delivered an iron play masterclass in the first round of the Sony Open, somehow missed the cut, and then spent the weekend presumably working on his putting.
He’s not a bad putter, all told, generally speaking, and as a birdie machine for whom some of his best paydays on the PGA TOUR have come on the West Coast both here and up at Torrey Pines the omens are strong.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 22nd
- SG: Approach – 54th
- SG: Putting – 92nd
Sleeper Pick for The 2021 American Express
Charley Hoffman (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 70.0, GPFP: 67.20 Salary: $7,400)
Although it’s been a while since he showed any real quality in this event, once upon a time Charley Hoffman banked three consecutive top-10s in the American Express – headlined by a T2 turn in 2015.
The Californian will surely enjoy a return to home soil given how well he struck the ball last week. He ranked second in our adjusted ball striking metric on his way to T14 at the Sony Open – his fourth top-25 effort in nine outings this term, which suggests he is very much a value play here.
If he takes his hot irons to PGA West and putts marginally better, the Hoff will make a mockery of this bargain basement pricing.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 41st
- Birdie Average – 79th
- SG: Putting – 87th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for The 2021 American Express
Keegan Bradley (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 54.7, GPFP: 68.95 Salary: $7,300)
While Keegan Bradley is a player we never own to high a percentage of – it’s better to spread your risk with such inconsistent performers, when he’s good he is excellent.
What an odd turn of events at Waialae last week, where Bradley drove the ball well and eld the field for SG: Approach through the opening 36 holes.
You probably know what happened next – his putting was atrocious, and the weekend was missed. But when you’re thinking about sleeper plays this is exactly what you should be looking for….a player on the back of an elite ball-striking show who can, if he makes some putts, win PGA TOUR events.
Bradley has made the cut in his last four showings in the American Express, with a personal best of T7.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 9th
- Total Driving – 21st
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 38th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
[/membership]
Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2020-2021)
Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2021 American Express with other Premium Members.
Cover Photo via Instagram
What’s Really Going on with LIV Golf?
Blind Ranking The Most Iconic Masters Moments
FIRST LOOK: Titleist Unveils New Vokey WedgeWorks Grind Lineup
New Shot Scope LM1: The Best Budget Launch Monitor Under $200?
Did LIV Golf Finally Get its Big Breakthrough?
FIRST LOOK: Titleist’s New GTS Driver Lineup Spotted on Tour
New Shot Scope LM1: The Best Budget Launch Monitor Under $200?
FIRST LOOK: Titleist Unveils New Vokey WedgeWorks Grind Lineup
Did LIV Golf Finally Get its Big Breakthrough?
Blind Ranking The Most Iconic Masters Moments
We Played This Old Golf Course Where Thomas Edison Was A Member
Are You MEASURING Your Golf Swing Correctly? (This Can Help)
Zach Johnson Explains Why He Didn’t Pick Bryson DeChambeau for the Ryder Cup
Justin Thomas FIRES Coach before Ryder Cup…Who’s Next?
