Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2021 Farmers Insurance Open

The Farmers Insurance Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

Regular golf bettors will be familiar with the phenomenon of being a week too early.

We had lined up Si-Woo Kim as a sleeper play at the Sony Open, and watched on as he played pretty well but just couldn’t get into the frame at the business end.

Forgive our frustration then when the Korean landed the American Express by one shot from Patrick Cantlay on Sunday – at a Pete Dye layout too….Kim clearly has an eye for such tracks given his former triumph at TPC Sawgrass. We should have waited a week longer!

Embed from Getty Images

Even so, it was another 60/1 winner at the sportsbooks and that shows there’s still ammunition for bettors seeking long-odds value….but will we see one this week?

Well, there’s good news and bad news on that front. The bad is that we expect one of the classier operators to thrive, given that premium ball-strikers have a clear competitive advantage at both of the Torrey Pines tracks that host this event.

On the plus side….Marc Leishman was a 45/1 hope when he won here 12 months ago and Jon Rahm, believe it or not, was 40/1 when he prospered back in 2017. Scott Stallings, in 2014, left everyone flabbergasted when he won at a cool 200/1!

The reason that premium players tend to thrive at Torrey Pines is because the South Course, which hosts three of the rounds played, is a quality test that has previously welcomed an edition of the U.S. Open. Thick rough, small Poa Annua greens that run at 13 on the stimp and a stiff breeze all contribute to making this a tough assignment.

The North Course, which rotates as a host for one of the first two rounds, is rather easier with wide open spaces and medium-paced Bentgrass greens, and this track plays at two strokes easier than the South – so yes, there could be a draw bias based upon the weather.

And the forecast this week is….interesting. There’s a warning for high winds in the early part of the week in San Diego, with rain forecast for Thursday and Friday and a breeze of up to 16mph. It won’t be for the faint hearted, you suspect.

Does that improve the chances of our sleeper picks? Who knows….but we certainly like the chances of this quartet on our Farmers Insurance Open sleeper shortlist.

[membership level=”0″]

You must be a Premium Member to view our exclusive fantasy golf picks.

Already a member?  Sign in Here.

[/membership]

[membership level=”1,2,3″]

The Farmers Insurance Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

Ryan Palmer – 60/1 – After opening 67-67-64 at the Tournament of Champions, Ryan Palmer would have been frustrated not to end his eleven-year wait for a PGA TOUR title – he had to watch on as Harris English did that instead.

That was his second top-10 of this season to go with the five he notched last term as well, so Palmer is certainly knocking on the door of a long overdue win – could a blowy La Jolla be the ideal location for that finally to happen?

The Texan has previous at Torrey Pines with a formline of 21-13-2, so why couldn’t he get over the winning line at last on this stretch?

Cameron Davis – 60/1 – While only accounting for three completed rounds at the Stadium Course last week, how’s about this for a stat – Cameron Davis ranked inside the top-five for both ball striking and short game as per our adjusted metric.

All of which suggests the Australian is in fine fettle right now, and the history of his countrymen in this event – Marc Leishman and Jason Day as former champions, plus a slew of other top-10s from Aussies – tells its own tale. They love the fast conditions at Torrey Pines.

Davis actually snuck a round of 65 in during his run to T36 last year, and if we assume he is a better player now then there is certainly considerable room for improvement on that.

Billy Horschel – 60/1 – In theory, a lack of length off the tee should penalize Billy Horschel at Torrey Pines.

In reality, he’s banked two top-10s here and made the cut in seven of his last eight trips here.

It’s relevant because Billy Ho is in excellent form right now, with T5 at Mayakoba Classic and T7 at the Sony Open suggesting he is somewhere near the peak of his powers.

A former FedExCup champion, Horschel fits the bill as a classy operator who can kick on and win this event.

Francesco Molinari – 70/1 – When your swing completely goes, it’s all about baby steps on the rebuild.

That said, Francesco Molinari took a huge leap forward with his top-10 at the American Express, and while there’s still improvement to come the Italian looked confident and in complete control.

A former British Open winner, Molinari has also won classy events like the Arnold Palmer and the BMW PGA Championship on the European Tour, and really he maybe ought to have won The Masters back in 2019 when he threw it away towards the end.

Molinari’s got the game….and his confidence is catching him up now too.

Gary Woodland – 80/1 – For Francesco Molinari, read Gary Woodland.

The former U.S. Open champion is another rebuilding his swing from the ground up, and while he is further back in his improvement there has been evident improvement lately.

He looked particularly good off the tee in his T16 at the American Express, and that is a huge leap forward given that he is an excellent iron player with a typically reliable putting stroke.

The best moment of his career came in California, and he loves it at Torrey Pines – five of his last seven trips here have yielded top-20 finishes.

[/membership]

Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for Farmers Insurance Open here.

Sleeper Report Predictions This Season (2020-2021)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”1.33%” bar_text=”1 out of 75 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent= “12.00%” bar_text=”9 out of 75 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”30.67%” bar_text=”23 out of 75 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=0%” bar_text=”0 out of 15 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”6.67%” bar_text=”1 out of 15 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”81.33%” bar_text=”61 out of 75 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

---

Cover photo via Instagram