Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson

2022 AT&T Byron Nelson Fantasy Sleeper Report

Don’t sleep on Max Homa.

The guy is a winning machine, relatively speaking, considering that he’s not necessarily somebody that golf fans would class as ‘elite’. Maybe that needs to change.

Homa has now bagged four PGA TOUR titles and has crashed into the top 30 of the OWGR, with a nice symmetry seeing his most recent victory come in the event where he broke his trophy duck.

The now two-time Wells Fargo Championship winner outlasted the field at TPC Potomac – a one-off host of the tournament – in conditions that could best be enjoyed from the comfort of the sofa.

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Cold and wet, birdies were hard to come by over the weekend and bogeys were revealing themselves at every turn, but Home stuck to his task and enjoyed the better of a four-shot swing with 54-hole leader Keegan Bradley early on Sunday.

And Homa, as we have come to expect from him even at this relatively early stage of his career, never flinched as the winning line came into view, and he converted with relative comfort to underline his burgeoning profile in the sport.

The next objective for the 31-year-old could be to contend in a major, and that opportunity may come in Oklahoma next week as the PGA Championship gets underway in Tulsa.

But in the meantime, there’s the small matter of the AT&T Byron Nelson to consider – an event that, a week shy of a major, may just give us an opportunity to hit a long odds winner if the minds of those at the head of the field are elsewhere.

The field will be met by a typically serene test in a week ahead of a show-stopping tournament, with TPC Craig Ranch taking on hosting duties. This Dallas layout offers very little in the way of hazards and danger – so much so that Kyoung-Hoon Lee was able to claim this title with a score of -25 a year ago.

It’s true to say that heavy rain made the course play softer and easier 12 months ago, and a hotter, drier forecast may just make the fairways and greens run that little bit purer. But even so, this is a layout of generous dimensions that has the gentlest of obstacles – Rowlett Creek is present on 13 holes, but the players will do well to find it.

There’s four Par 5s to attack and a pair of Par 4s that can be driven by the longer hitters, but even those a touch shorter with a quality chipping game will create stacks of birdie opportunities.

Other than the Texan wind, it looks set to be a fun, low scoring and sunny week in Dallas, so who can claim the last PGA Tour title prior to the second major of the year? Our AT&T Byron Nelson sleeper shortlist investigates.

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Aaron Wise – 55/1 – Statistically speaking, Aaron Wise shapes up very nicely this week given that he has plenty of quality when hitting approach shots from that golden 200-250 yard range at TPC Craig Ranch.

And while spreadsheet naysayers will point to the fact that he is a pretty haphazard putter at best, those in the know will point out that Wise is starting to get his feel back on the greens – gaining strokes with the flat stick in his last two starts.

You have to keep an eye on the putting travails of quality ball-strikers, and Wise’s numbers are just appetizing enough – don’t forget he was T6 at the Mexican Open last time out even with a round of 75 on his card – to get involved once more.

Jhonattan Vegas – 55/1 – Having set up home in Texas, it’s no surprise to learn that Jhonattan Vegas is comfortable playing in the Lonestar State.

He heads home this week on the back of a stripe-show at the Wells Fargo Championship, ranking second for SG: Approach in an event where his normally excellent driving let him down.

But the Venezuelan will enjoy more room off the tee at TPC Craig Ranch, and to suggest he likes it here can be summed up in his stats from last year’s Byron Nelson – after finding just 57% of fairways, he still came up with a GIR count of 84.7%….the third best in the field.

Lanto Griffin – 75/1 – It’s not rocket science, but when Lanto Griffin combines his quality approach play with a sure hand on the greens, he generally does very nicely.

He gained strokes on the field in both departments at the American Express (T3), Wells Fargo (T6) and Pebble Beach (T16), and a return to better form with woods and irons in hand should precipitate another strong showing at TPC Craig Ranch.

As a former Houston Open champion, we know that Griffin is comfortable in this part of the world.

Tom Hoge – 100/1 – A couple of iffy weeks have seen Tom Hoge tumble down the sportsbook pecking order, and that seems like a major over-reaction.

Especially so when you consider how strong he is on approach from the 200 yard range, and just how comfy he is in low-scoring conditions – he won with -19 at Pebble Beach, and was solo second at the American Express with a score of -21.

Up to 40 in the OWGR, Hoge will know the providence of being inside the top-20 in a President’s Cup year – expect a strong few months from the former Texas Christian University student.

Kevin Kisner – 100/1 – It’s funny, because this doesn’t feel like a Kevin Kisner week really in conditions that don’t suit his natural game.

And yet, we can avail ourselves of sportsbook odds of 100/1 on a player who as recently as eight weeks ago finished solo fourth at the PLAYERS Championship – golf’s self-styled fifth major.

One of the best putters around, it only takes Kisner to perform somewhat better with his ball-striking to contend anywhere – so why not at a layout where a lack of length isn’t necessarily a disaster?

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the AT&T Byron Nelson here.

Sleeper Report Predictions This Season (2021-2022)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”3.07%” bar_text=”4 out of 135 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent= “17.69%” bar_text=”23 out of 135 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”20.76%” bar_text=”27 out of 135 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”3.84%” bar_text=”1 out of 27 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”3.84%” bar_text=”1 out of 27 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”56.92%” bar_text=”74 out of 135 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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