Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson
AT&T Byron Nelson Fantasy Preview
Rather than raining birdies at the Wells Fargo Championship, as most in the field would have hoped, it actually rained, well, rain….and conditions at TPC Potomac were made all the more difficult as a result.
In the end, it was Max Homa who out-grinded the rest to win by two strokes – there can’t be many PGA TOUR champions that have won with a GIR count of just 64%, and that’s down to the complexity of TPC Potomac. Let’s hope that TOUR officials find a permanent slot on the roster for this layout, because it definitely trumps some of the more run-of-the-mill layouts on the rotation.
Incidentally, this was Homa’s fourth win on the PGA TOUR and this third in less than 18 months – a naturally fun and laidback guy, he perhaps doesn’t get as much credit as more ‘serious’ professionals, but his win rate is every bit as impressive as pretty much anybody at the top end of world golf.
Spare a thought for Keegan Bradley, who has now gone 0-4 when holding the 54-hole lead in PGA TOUR events. He gutsed it out better than anybody in the worst of the conditions on Friday and Saturday, but once more his Sunday demons came to haunt him….winning ain’t easy.
The PGA Championship is tantalizingly poised on the horizon, but first it’s a stop-off in Dallas, Texas for the AT&T Byron Nelson.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Max Homa came through with a great win last week but unfortunately we had left him on the bench.
Our best finish came from Lahiri with his T6, but other than that, it was not an impressive showing for our team at TPC Potomac.
Hoping for a brighter week this week!
AT&T Byron Nelson Field
Even though we’re a week shy of a major, there’s a quality field heading to TPC Craig Ranch to tune up their game.
World number one and Masters champion Scottie Scheffler leads the way, and he will be joined by the likes of Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, RBC Heritage winner Jordan Spieth and Sam Burns, who has won at this layout in the past as part of the Korn Ferry Tour’s Q School events.
Brooks Koepka and Hideki Matsuyama are former major winners looking to get their hands on another big one – this should be ideal prep for the PGA next week, while we might describe Xander Schauffele, Joaquin Niemann and Will Zalatoris as major champions in-waiting….how will they warm up in Texas?
Reigning champion K-H Lee returns to defend his AT&T Byron Nelson honor, while the likes of Brian Harman, Lanto Griffin and Mackenzie Hughes will be looking to follow their top-10s at the Wells Fargo with something even more substantial this week.
This Week’s Course Preview
TPC Craig Ranch only took up hosting duties of the Byron Nelson a year ago, and given that Lee won with a score of -25 you wonder if officials will have done anything to toughen up the layout.
Of course, it won’t play difficult a week shy of a major, and once we’d expect the fierce winds in the Lonestar State to act as the main danger to the players.
Designed by Tom Weiskopf, TPC Craig Ranch served a kind of apprenticeship as a two-time host of the Nationwide Tour Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour in both 2008 and 2012, as well as being a regular host for the KFT’s Q-School events.
Suitably impressed, PGA TOUR officials have green lit the layout to join the seasonal rotation, and so once again the players will navigate a layout that features more than 80 bunkers and on which a body of water, Rowlett Creek, features on 13 holes.
But, for the most part, TPC Craig Ranch is your typical 7,400 yard Par 72, and last year – as you would expect – the four Par 5s and a pair of Par 4s measuring 360 and 330 yards respectively proved to be the easiest holes on the layout.
All told, 12 of the 18 holes averaged under par 12 months ago, with 13, 15 and 16 combining as three of the most difficult – an interesting stretch indeed, but look out for the eighteenth….there was almost as many eagles as bogeys here in 2021. Could that pave the way for a grandstand finish?
Weather Forecast for McKinney, TX
It’s as Texas as you can get this week in Dallas.
The players will enjoy temperatures of 91˚F throughout the week, and the weather pattern is sunshine and intermittent cloudy spells throughout.
While the wind predictions can be taken with a pinch of salt in Texas – the breeze will usually rage at a lick greater than expected, even so quotes of between 8-12 mph are not too dastardly by the Lonestar State’s standards.
Last Year’s Results from the AT&T Byron Nelson
Kyoung-Hoon Lee showed nerves of steel to win his maiden PGA TOUR title at the AT&T Byron Nelson 12 months ago.
The fact that the Korean even had a chance of victory was something of a surprise given the way that Sam Burns, a cold-eyed killer when in contention, had started his tournament. A round of 62 on the Friday could have been all she wrote, but Burns lost his way over the weekend and two bogeys over his first four holes on Sunday pretty much ended his title hopes.
As for Lee, he played the round of his life, gaining +3.64 strokes on the field on approach on his way to five birdies in his opening eight holes. In the end, he prevailed by three from the flagging Burns, with a four-way tie for T3 featuring Patton Kizzire and Daniel Berger – who fired rounds of 63 and 64 respectively on the Sunday – plus Scott Stallings and Charl Schwartzel.
Stallings, incidentally, made a staggering 30 birdies across the week and still didn’t take home the trophy – it will be interesting to know how many players have broken par with such regularity and still not won the tournament in question!?
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the AT&T Byron Nelson this Week
With no real knowledge of TPC Craig Ranch, gamers have two choices this week – batten down the hatches and grind out a profit from low fee contests, or go big and assume their greater research will pay the ultimate dividends. We’ve gone for one of each here….
- PGA $200K Driver: Here’s your one dart this week – a $200 entry contest that will pay out a top prize of $50k….and you’ll only have to best 1,111 players to get your hands on it.
- PGA $300k Drive the Green: For a low barrier contest, take your chances in this $3 tournament in which the winner will bank 450k. This contest is more about accumulating a decent ROI, so it’s a good way to saddle up with multiple lineups.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the AT&T Byron Nelson
The rain-softened TPC Craig Ranch wilted at the hands of some of the best golfers in the world last year, and while the forecast is somewhat better this time around we still expect it to be a birdie-fest under the sun.
The heat of the Texan sun will surely ensure the fairways and greens run faster than they did 12 months ago, but with the wind at manageable levels some of these holes – including four Par 5s under 570 yards in length and the two drivable Par 4s are there for the taking.
Even so, note how long some of the holes play and the uniformity required – the Par 5s will require approaches in the 200-250 yard range to find the green in two, while some of the longer Par 4s (13 and 16 play 512 and 492 yards respectively) will also need an approach shot of similar distance, so clearly those players comfortable in this range have an edge.
You would think at a low-scoring course with large landing zones off the tee that driving distance would be all-important, and yet Lee averaged 291 yards off the peg and Seamus Power, in T9, holstered his big stick more often than not to average 279.5 yards. Don’t get hung up too much on driving distance in your draft – it’s all about comfort in that 200-250 yard range on approach.
Although our data sample of one year is minuscule, TPC Craig Ranch really does shape up as a second-shot course – Lee averaged second for SG: Approach 12 months ago, and five of the top six players on the leaderboard ranked inside the top-ten for that metric.
Hitting darts at the flag and wrapping up birdie putts on Bentgrass greens really is the way to go at TPC Craig Ranch – it’s a simple formula on paper!
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the AT&T Byron Nelson
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the AT&T Byron Nelson
Top Tier Pick #1:
Justin Thomas (Odds: 14/1, FPPG: 99.2, GPFP: 128.97 Salary: $10,600)
At shot-makers courses where breaking par is the order of the day, it’s often very difficult to overlook the claims of Justin Thomas – especially now that his putting stroke is back as it should be.
It’s no coincidence that JT has won once since August 2020 – his flat stick has gone walkabout for much of that timeframe, and so it’s noteworthy that Thomas has gained strokes on the field putting in four of his last five strokeplay outings.
His outstanding tee-to-green game has not deserted him, and there are few players in world golf capable of taking part malleable courses quite like Justin Thomas in full flow.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 2nd
- SG: Approach – 4th
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 23rd
Top Tier Pick #2:
Joaquin Niemann (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 74.1, GPFP: 59.26 Salary: $9,300)
One of the best iron hitters in world golf, it’s only a matter of time before Joaquin Niemann is ranked inside the world’s top -10 and this considered elite.
In the meantime, he found his winning touch again at February’s Genesis Invitational, and while it’s been a mixed bag since T12 at the RBC Heritage and even T35 at The Masters are indicative of a player performing at a high grade right now.
Putting remains something of an issue, but our records – dating back to the start of the Chilean’s PGA TOUR career – suggest that Bentgrass greens are his most successful surface with flat stick in hand allows us to be confident in his chances.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 14th
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 15th
- Greens in Regulation – 33rd
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Marc Leishman (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 74.4, GPFP: 82.61 Salary: $7,800)
Marc Leishman has been cast asunder by the salary-deciders this week on the back of his missed cut at the Wells Fargo, and yet there’s more to that than meets the eye.
By his own admission, the Australian makes mistakes that can completely undo his good work, and his opening 68 at TPC Potomac was destroyed by a couple of horror drives in round two – both of which led to double bogeys and his absence from the weekend.
For context, Leishman made eight birdies in 36 holes at TPC Potomac – Matt Fitzpatrick, who finished T2, made eleven in 72 holes, so we’re more than willing to take a chance on an outstanding approach hitter who will be afforded more room and forgiveness off the tee at TPC Craig Ranch.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 14th
- SG: Putting – 22nd
- SG: Approach – 40th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
C.T Pan (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 63.9, GPFP: 51.13 Salary: $7,300)
Putting better of late, C.T. Pan has the ball-striking capability to take full advantage.
The Chinese ace gained strokes on the field on the greens at the Mexico Open and Wells Fargo Championship, and that goes with a season-long rank of 51st on approach (32nd from 225-250 yards).
Pan is a solid performer in DFS golf this term with 12/16 cuts made and five top-25 finishes, and it’s certainly not impossible that he can achieve beyond that at a TPC Craig Ranch test that should suit.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 51st
- Scoring Average – 51st
- Scrambling – 56th
Low-Tier Pick:
Hudson Swafford (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 60.3, GPFP: 72.30 Salary: $6,700)
Is there a player in world golf that gets as routinely disrespected by odds compilers and salary-makers as Hudson Swafford?
He followed T30 at The Masters with T35 at the RBC Heritage, both events where he gained strokes on the field on approach and putting, and his reward is to see his sportsbook odds double in the space of four weeks!
No matter, because we can use that to our advantage in our fantasy drafts by getting a quality iron player at a snip of a price.
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 7th
- Birdie Average – 32nd
- SG: Approach – 34th
Sleeper Pick for the AT&T Byron Nelson
Kurt Kitayama (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 54.3, GPFP: 43.40 Salary: $7,400)
It has been a tremendous few weeks for Kurt Kitayama, and it’s form propelled by that most sustainable source of excellence – strokes gained on approach.
He is creating stacks of birdie opportunities for himself right now, and he ranked top-five for par breakers at both the Mexico Open – where he finished T2 – and at the Wells Fargo Championship, where he was T15.
What’s interesting is that there’s no reason why that form can’t travel to TPC Craig Ranch, which offers little in the way of danger off the tee, and so we can only hope that Kitayama’s irons are on sizzling form once more.
Key Stats:
- Approaches from 200-225 yards – 6th
- SG: Approach – 10th
- Birdie Average – 81st
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the AT&T Byron Nelson
Stephan Jaeger (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 47.5, GPFP: 37.98 Salary: $6,900)
Normally when we examine performance data at a granular level, we’re looking for guys with ball-striking quality who have shown a recent improvement on the greens – that can be a marriage made in heaven.
But, sometimes, the reverse of the roles can be true as well – a generally reliable putter who suddenly finds some class from tee-to-green.
Whether Stephan Jaeger’s recent improvements are sustainable remain to be seen, but he seems to have absorbed some of Zurich Classic playing partner Joel Dahmen’s approach play brilliance by osmosis – delivering strokes-gained-on-the-field performances in that department at the Mexico Open and Wells Fargo Championship.
Can he make it a hat-trick of positivity this week?
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 10th
- SG: Putting – 51st
- Scrambling – 86th
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2021-2022)
Tourneys Played '21 -'22
Season Earnings YTD
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