Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2023 American Express

2023 American Express Fantasy Sleeper Report

Si-Woo Kim took advantage of the maiden malaise of Hayden Buckley to win the fourth PGA TOUR title of his increasingly-impressive career at the Sony Open.

You may recall Russell Henley’s head-cheese moment at Waialae 12 months ago when he shovelled his event-winning putt wide on the 72nd hole, and while Buckley wasn’t guilty of anything quite as bad, he did miss three putts inside 10ft on Sunday – the sort he had been downing with aplomb all week.

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Si-Woo needed a slice of luck (or talent, if you prefer) when he chipped in after missing the 17th green, but you can’t fault the Korean’s poise as the finishing line approached, and it was effectively his birdie at the Par 5 last – Buckley could only muster par – that ultimately separated the players.

Such are the travails of trying to win an elite-level golf tournament.

The American Express, meanwhile, is not what you would describe as elite. Make no mistake, a decent field will head to California, with Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler and Patrick Cantlay all hoping to get back into the winner’s circle (in Rahm’s case, he wouldn’t have to have waited too long).

But this tournament features three courses on rotation, with each pro paired with an amateur of differing levels of golfing ability and personal notoriety. Even that can be the difference between success and failure in the American Express, and explains why such luminaries as Hudson Swafford, Adam Long and Andrew Landry have added their name to this trophy in recent memory.

Each of the host venues is easy enough to master, with one round each played at the Stadium and Nicklaus courses at PGA West, and another at La Quinta. Then the cut is made, and the remaining 65+ players tee it up at the Stadium Course on Sunday.

There’s little to say about the Nicklaus and La Quinta layouts – these are short, soft Par 72s that put everyone on 59 watch, while the Stadium Course is a little more challenging given that Pete Dye was on design duty. So there’s sand, water and undulating greens, but even so winning scores of -20 and lower are a standard in The American Express.

Long, Landry, Swafford….you’ll have got topside of 100/1 on each of those winning, and even Si-Woo Kim was a shade over 50/1 when he won here in 2021. So, there’s plenty to get excited about, if you can figure out who has got a shot at winning amongst the most unlikely of champions.

Anyway, here’s our stab at it in our 2023 American Express shortlist:

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Cam Davis – 50/1 – Australian players tend to enjoy desert-style golf, and it was no surprise to see Cam Davis finish T3 in this event back in 2021.

He shook off the cobwebs at Waialae after a number of weeks off, and his game looked to be in decent shape as he ranked top-10 for SG: Tee-to-Green.

He has a cold putter that will need heating up and pronto, but it’s not uncommon that can turn around quickly at this time of year – Swafford finished T48 at the Sony Open before winning here a week later, while Tom Hoge, Brian Harman and Lee Hodges all made the top-five at The American Express after finishing outside the top-40 at Waialae. 

Andrew Putnam – 55/1 – The good times keep on rolling for Andrew Putnam, who since the start of the 2022-23 season has compiled two top-five finishes and a T12.

He was tied for fourth at the Sony Open in a week powered by a monstrously good effort with the putter, and while he will need to improve from tee-to-green this week, it’s worth noting his formline in The American Express reads 14-21-10-34-17. He’s keen on the place.

Besides, he has been generally good in his ball striking in recent months, and as a noted desert player with strong form at the Phoenix Open and Shriners, Putnam ticks plenty of boxes at handsome odds.

J.T. Poston – 75/1 – Players that can go on birdie runs are valuable assets in this tournament, and J.T. Poston has that in his locker.

He’s a typically excellent putter, and when his ball-striking matches that it’s a recipe for success – as it was when he won the John Deere Classic in July.

Poston has gained strokes on the field on approach in eight of his last ten outings, so he is setting up plenty of birdie looks right now.

Ben Taylor – 200/1 – It’s been a stellar start to life on the PGA TOUR for Ben Taylor.

The Brit has banked two top-fives at the Sony and Houston Opens and T21 at the RSM Classic, where he posted two rounds of 65.

He ranks inside the TOUR’s top-30 for both SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Putting, and so the trip to California will surely be a case of carry on making birdies.

A winner on the Korn Ferry Tour, Taylor will be looking to take a step up to the big time this week.

Nick Taylor – 200/1 – A former winner of the pro-am at Pebble Beach, Nick Taylor has pedigree in this sort of environment.

He’s posted top-20s at The American Express too, and so evidently there’s something about these events that suits the Canadian.

His effort at the Sony Open was particularly interesting. He finished T7 on the back of a happy sandwich of ranking tenth and twelfth for SG: Approach Putting respectively, so his game is in place to contend in California.   

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the American Express here.

Sleeper Report Predictions This Season (2022-2023)

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