Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2023 Farmers Insurance Open

2023 Farmers Insurance Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

With a formline of 1-1-8-1-4-1-2 around the globe, you can forgive Jon Rahm for feeling pretty rankled that he isn’t ranked number one in the world.

Whether that’s what put the fuel on his fire at the American Express last week we can only guess, but the California Swing generally heralds good times for Rahm and he added another West Coast title to his collection at PGA West.

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A word should go to Davis Thompson, who proved to be a very worthy adversary in just his seventh start on the PGA TOUR. He will remain available at long odds despite his second-place finish last week, so expect the 23-year-old to feature in this column in the near future.

To send shockwaves down the spine of his opponents, Rahm is already a two-time winner at Torrey Pines, the host venue for the Farmers Insurance Open this week, and with motivation abounding it wouldn’t be a surprise if he makes it a hat-trick. The likes of Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Will Zalatoris and Justin Thomas are among those most likely to put up a strong challenge.

We certainly expect a classier sort to get the W in La Jolla, anyway. The Farmers trophy contains the names List, Reed, Leishman, Rose, Day and Rahm, and that is a collection of players that bring ball-striking purity and/or recovery game magnificence to the table.

Given that Torrey Pines South, which hosts 54 holes this week (the South is on rotation for one of the first two rounds), measures more than 7,700 yards long, with narrow fairways and smaller-than-average greens, you won’t be amazed to learn that scrambling and chipping are also of importance.

And so finding an all-round class act at odds of 50/1 or greater becomes something of a challenge, although it’s interesting that we make the switch to Poa Annua greens – that can be a real point of difference.

Poa greens tend to be slower and bumpier than other grasses, and so the advantage of the usual putting merchants is somewhat nullified. Also, Californians and Canadians also have a natural advantage in these conditions, so that’s something to consider.

We’re expecting a cool and windy week in La Jolla, and that could also be a leveller. So, we can back a handful of sleeper plays and hope Rahm doesn’t rampage once more at his favorite course….he’s our quintet of picks for the Farmers Insurance Open.

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Cam Davis – 60/1 – We have a useful profile to work with when it comes to historic success at Torrey Pines, and Cam Davis ticks many of the boxes.

He’s a long, straight hitter and a quality ball striker, with a decent recovery when he does miss the greens.

Davis’ fellow countrymen Marc Leishman and Jason Day have previously won this event, and other Australians have performed well at Torrey Pines – this is no coincidence. They are typically at home in blustery conditions and on bumpy greens.

Also fitting this template, Davis looks a solid play in an event he’s never missed the cut at in five outings.

J.J. Spaun – 66/1 – According to our database, J.J. Spaun saves many of his better putting performances for Poa Annua greens.

That’s important, because Spaun has become a quality ball-striker over the past year – that yielded his maiden PGA TOUR title at the Texas Open, and so he should feel at home at Torrey Pines (where he already has a previous top-10 finish).

Spaun has also added yards off the tee in the past few months, and the improvement in his results (six top-25s in seven starts) comes as no surprise.

Luke List – 80/1 – Professional golfers can be superstitious types at times.

It’s why so many perform well at the same course year in, year out regardless of their lead-in form – these good vibes can be as important to a golfer as their work on the range.

Luke List is a sublime ball-striker that cannot putt, this we know, but his best effort with the flat stick in years came when winning here 12 months ago. 

He does generally putt better on Poa as a rule, so he’s certainly one to consider ahead of his title defense.

Taylor Pendrith – 85/1 – Without wanting to get agronomical on you, many Canadian golf courses use Poa Annua for their greens as this grass tends to be more resistant to cold weather.

It’s why some of Canada’s best golfers thrive the most on Poa greens, and it’s with that in mind that Taylor Pendrith makes our staking plan.

He finished T2 on the Poa greens at Detroit GC in the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and he’s continued to prosper with his ball-striking since.

Could a return to Poa spark Pendrith to another run to the top page of the leaderboard?

Ryan Palmer – 90/1 – After switching to a new putter for the QBE Shootout and going close to victory alongside Charley Hoffman, Ryan Palmer began talking positively about his game after a period in the doldrums.

He followed that up, to some extent, with T32 at the Sony Open, but it’s at Torrey Pines – where his formline reads 16-MC-2-21-13-2 – that his renewed confidence could be best exploited.

Could he finally get over the line after going so close at Torrey Pines in the past?

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the Farmers Insurance Open here.

Sleeper Report Predictions This Season (2022-2023)

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