Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am  

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Fantasy Preview

He’s the king of Californian golf, the prince of Poa Annua.

Only Jon Rahm can lay claim to loving life on the West Coast quite like Max Homa in recent years, but it was Homa who overcame the Spaniard in a titanic final round at the Farmers Insurance Open on Saturday. 

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Rahm was the sportsbook favorite heading into a final 18 holes in which he sat two shots behind surprise leader Sam Ryder, who odds-makers predicted would crumble under the spotlight of trying to win his maiden PGA TOUR title.

In fairness to Ryder, he gave a solid account of himself before falling at the final fence, with a double-bogey at 15 – followed by another red number at 17 – ending his hopes.

Meanwhile Rahm was having a poor final round himself, uncharacteristically, and after playing the front nine in +3 his hopes of a historic win at Torrey Pines were all but over.

So the door was ajar for someone from off the pace to come along and seize the day, and that man was Homa, whose final round of 66 was eight shots better than the field average. He joined an elite band of four players that have won six times on the PGA TOUR since May 2019 – Rory, Rahm, Cantlay and Justin Thomas. Four of those have come at golf courses lined with Poa Annua.

And that’s the grass type awaiting those that remain in California for the AT&T Pebble Beach this week.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Last week we crushed it by skipping on Rahm and running with the Morikawa/Homa 1-2 punch instead.  It certainly paid off as Collin finished 3rd and Max finished in the top spot! 

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Over all, 10 of our total 12 picks made the cut at Torrey pines and we cashed in nicely on the top picks!

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Field

This isn’t usually an event that attracts many of world’s top-10 players, and that’s the theme that continues into 2023.

But we do have the U.S. Open champion in Matt Fitzpatrick, other major winners like Jordan Spieth and Justin Rose, the classy Viktor Hovland and defending champion Tom Hoge that will lead the way in the betting.

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Bermuda Championship winner Seamus Power and the likes of Kevin Kisner and Matt Kuchar lead the ranks of those that enjoy life by the seaside, while maidens like Davis Thompson, Maverick McNealy and Denny McCarthy will be eyeing a first PGA TOUR title in slightly more relaxed surroundings than normal.

This is a pro-am event, of course, and so you’ll also see the swings of Hollywood A-Listers (Jason Bateman, Will Arnett, Michael Pena, Bill Murray etc), sporting stars (Aaron Rodgers) and, erm, Carlton from the Fresh Prince of Bel Air amongst others.

This Week’s Course Preview

It’s a three-way rotation again this week, with Pebble Beach hosting one of the opening rounds (and the final 18) alongside Monterey Peninsula and Spyglass Hill.

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They all share similar characteristics, in that they are short (sub-7000 yards in the case of Monterey and Spyglass), have Poa Annua greens and are somewhat exposed to the elements on the Pacific coast.

Pebble Beach is the most interesting of the trio – it’s hosted the U.S. Open before, but the set-up for this event is very more friendly to account for the pro-am vibe. But the greens are small in size, with plenty of bunkers and that crosswind from the ocean helping to up the difficulty somewhat. 

Spyglass Hill is a little more tree-lined than the others, and some of the greens are raised – it is, however, still a layout where scores of 66 and better are, pun intended, par for the course.

Monterey Peninsula is typically the easiest of the bunch, despite being a Par 71, and while exposed to the conditions it remains another track to be got at by the pros and Ray Romano alike.

Weather Forecast for Pebble Beach, CA

It looks set to be another mixed and unpredictable week in this part of California.

The temperatures look set to hover around the 55-59˚F mark all week, while the wind – largely benign – could still hit 12mph on Sunday.

And the weather itself looks to be hit-and-miss. Thursday looks to be grey and miserable, Friday and Sunday have rain in the predictions and Saturday has sunny spells in the offing.

Go figure….

MONTEREY WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Tom Hoge busted down the door of his first PGA TOUR win in more than 200 starts last year with an opening round of 63 setting the platform.

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Rounds of 69 and 68 kept him in contention with a share of the 54-hole lead, before an amazing finale saw seven players at the top of the leaderboard at various points of an absorbing Sunday.

Respect to Hoge then, who kicked a lengthy winless to the kerb by playing his back nine in -4, while late bogeys from the likes of Jordan Spieth and Patrick Cantlay derailed their title bid.

Hoge played the challenging final hole at Pebble Beach in par to complete a famous victory. 

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am this Week

If the AT&T Pebble Beach is something of a lottery to predict, maybe we should treat our daily fantasy picks as lottery tickets too? This is not a week for spending big on multiple lineups, so instead take a look at these lower risk but still high reward contests.

• PGA $200k Drive the Green: For $5 per entry, you buy yourself a chance of winning the $25k jackpot here. With multiple other payouts of good size, this is your golfing lottery ticket for the week sorted.

• PGA $50k Full Round Special: If you have a slightly bigger budget, your single bullet could be aimed at this $10 entry contest. The prize pool may only be $50k, but the field size is just 5,882, so there’s less competition to battle against.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Although some classy names have gotten etched on the AT&T Pebble Beach trophy in recent times – Phil Mickelson and Daniel Berger spring to mind – there is still a ‘lottery’ feel to an event won by such luminaries as Nick Taylor, Vaughn Taylor and Ted Potter Jr.

The possibility of a draw bias, the probability of being paired with a sub-normal celebrity, and the reality that this is something of a putting contest does little to inspire confidence amongst sharp DFS gamers and bettors this week. For context, 12-time Hooters Tour winner Potter defeated a trio of major champions (Mickelson, Jason Day and Dustin Johnson) by three strokes in 2018.

The cold conditions and ‘grabby’ Poa Annua greens, designed to be nice and slow for the celebrities in attendance, also do little to render this tournament as one to look forward to on the calendar.

But let’s stick to what we do know. It generally doesn’t matter what you do from the tee in this event – at least it didn’t for the last three winners (Hoge, Berger, Nick Taylor) – but each ranked top-10 for SG: Approach, so hitting it close is particularly helpful. Intriguingly, prowess from the 100-125 and 200-225 yard ranges is key, as these approach distances are more common in this event than most others on TOUR. 

That trio had solid weeks on the Poa Annua greens too, with an ability to make putts from ten feet and inside a particular bonus.

Otherwise, it’s cross your fingers and hope for the best time!

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am  

Top Tier Pick #1

Tom Hoge (Odds: 18/1, FPPG: 82.9, GPGP: 76.26 Salary: $10,000)

Statistically, Tom Hoge is one of the very best approach hitters in this field, and while defending champions don’t have a great record in this event, he has the basic tools to mount a successful defense of his trophy.

In his last eight ShotLink starts, dating back to the TOUR Championship, Hoge has gained strokes on the field in all of them – a truly outstanding effort. What’s more, his progress has been franked by green numbers in six of the eight as well.

Although an unfashionable type at the top end of the market when compared to Spieth, Hovland, Fitzpatrick and co, Hoge has all of the weapons required to win this event in conditions he loves.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 1st
• Birdie Average – 17th
• SG: Putting – 45th

Top Tier Pick #2

Seamus Power (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 90.1, GPGP: 72.10 Salary: $9,800)

In time you suspect this will be the sort of event that Maverick McNealy will win to finally get off the mark as a PGA TOUR pro. But having gained strokes on approach in just two of his last ten starts, now does not seem the likely time for that to happen.

So preference is given to Seamus Power, a progressive sort who won in similar(ish) conditions on the coast in Bermuda back in October.

In four starts since, the Irishman has rustled up two more top-five finishes on the PGA TOUR – both in correlating conditions at Mayakoba and on Sea Island, and with a top-10 to his name at Pebble Beach we can be fairly confident of Power’s chances this week.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 9th
• SG: Putting – 9th
• Approaches from 100-125 yards – 28th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Joel Dahmen (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 80.4, GPGP: 64.34 Salary: $9,000)

A lack of competitive action recently notwithstanding, Pebble Beach sets up perfectly for Joel Dahmen’s game.

This is a guy with strong showings in the RSM Classic, Sony Open, RBC Heritage and Mayakoba Classic to his name, which is proof positive that these conditions are those in which he thrives – a T6 finish here 12 months ago adding to that notion.

A confirmed Poa Annua performer, Dahmen is – at his best – a sublime ball-striker in both benign and windy conditions, and he also boasts the SG: Perspective of becoming a father for the first time earlier this month.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 3rd
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 23rd
• SG: Approach – 28th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Russell Knox (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 70.6 GPGP: 87.54 Salary: $7,500)

We’ve identified the AT&T Pebble Beach as an event in which pitch and putt golf – that is knock it close on approach and then sink your putt – is the foundation for success.

We don’t need to worry about the ‘pitch’ part of that process with Russell Knox, who continues to serve up outstanding numbers with irons and wedges in hand. He’s gained strokes on the field on approach in eleven of his last 12 ShotLink tracked outings.

Putting? That’s historically been more of an issue for the Scot, although in his last ten he has actually gained strokes on the dancefloor in six of them – admittedly only just in some cases, but the point stands.

In ten trips to this event, Knox has a T7, two other top-20s and two other top-30s to his name, so these are conditions that seem to suit.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 6th
• Greens in Regulation – 40th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 54th

Low-Tier Pick

Joseph Bramlett (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 74.2, GPGP: 59.38 Salary: $7,400)

It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise when Californians save their best putting performances – or, in Joseph Bramlett’s case, least worst – for Poa Annua greens.

He lost 0.05 strokes putting at the Farmers Insurance Open last week, but his ball-striking was so good that he was still able to fashion a T13 finish.

In his last ten ShotLink starts, Bramlett has only once gained strokes on the field putting – that was on the Poa Annua greens of Silverado, and so we can only assume that’s a good omen for a player with prodigious tee-to-green talent.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 42nd
• SG: Approach – 50th
• Scoring Average – 63rd

Sleeper Pick for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Scott Piercy (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 52.5, GPGP: 42.00 Salary: $7,200)

We’ve dug into the archives and can confirm that Poa Annua is Scott Piercy’s favored putting surface.

At the age of 44, there’s plenty of data to work with, and the veteran has time and time again putted better on Poa than any other grass.

The plot thickens when you note that he’s gained strokes on approach in four of his last five PGA TOUR starts, and in six outings in this event since 2017 has served up a T10 and two other top-20 finishes.

Anything along those lines this week and Piercy will very much be a value-for-money sleeper pick.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 13th
• SG: Approach – 42nd
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 65th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Peter Malnati (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 44.8, GPGP: 35.80 Salary: $6,800)

It would be gobsmacking if Peter Malnati wins this week, but then you could have said that about Ted Potter Jr or Vaughn Taylor when they lifted this trophy.

On Malnati’s side is the fact that he ranked fourth in a decent quality Farmers Insurance Open field for SG: Approach, and if he takes that class with iron and wedge to Pebble Beach then he will make a mockery of this lowly – but understandable – salary.

His form in this event is something of a mixed bag, but Malnati does have a T11 effort to his name – a repeat of that this week would be most welcome.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 22nd
• Approaches from 100-125 yards – 42nd
• SG: Putting – 81st

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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