Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2023 Sony Open in Hawaii

2023 Sony Open in Hawaii Fantasy Sleeper Report

Even the best players find it hard to get over the line sometimes.

Collin Morikawa, already a two-time major winner, has now twice come memorably unstuck in the final round when holding a handsome lead, and bettors will need some convincing to get behind the young phenom given his final round woes.

This time it was at the Tournament of Champions where the wheels came off. Leading by seven heading into the final round of the annual curtain raiser, Morikawa was pitching along nicely until the Sunday wobbles kicked in….three consecutive bogeys on the back nine opening the door to others.

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Of those, it was Jon Rahm – of course – who grasped the nettle. He played his final nine holes in -6, and in the end that was enough to canter to victory….Morikawa birdied the last, but it wasn’t enough.

It’s Rahm’s fifth win worldwide in 18 months, and shows there’s definitely a knack to getting over the finishing line. It’s a lesson that Morikawa is learning the hard way.

The action remains in Hawaii for the second leg of the swing, with the Sony Open acting as bettors’ first real tournament to sink their teeth into in 2023. Incredibly, there’s been only one winner on the PGA TOUR at odds of 100/1 or longer since May 2022, so long-shot hunters will be hoping for an improvement in conditions this year.

The Sony Open definitely offers an opportunity for an outsider to get over the line, because this is effectively a putting contest of high variance.

Waialae, the host course, offers more challenges than last week’s Plantation Course at Kapalua, with tighter fairways, tree-lines and some hefty bunkering around the greens in particular.

But sensible play off the tee leaves plenty of birdie opportunities to be made, and even though this is a Par 70 event, the winning score is routinely around -20 – that shows how malleable the Par 4s are at Waialae.

Eight of the last nine Sony Open winners, and 17 of the last 24, had played the Tournament of Champions the week prior, and so the sportsbook favorites speak for themselves. Tom Kim, Jordan Spieth and Hideki Matsuyama lead the way, with the likes of Russell Henley, Brian Harman and Tom Hoge offering interested backup.

But, like we say, it’s often the case that the best putter (or close to it) will prevail this week, and that opens the door to those with a reliable stroke with the flat stick and an eagerness to take care of business.

So let’s see who has made the grade in our 2023 Sony Open shortlist.

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Denny McCarthy – 55/1 – He must be wondering if he will ever get his hands on a PGA TOUR trophy, but as one of the best putters around it would be wise for Denny McCarthy not to give up hope.

A fairly accurate driver, McCarthy also has the gift of being able to keep his ball in play, and that can be useful at Waialae – as it is at Mayakoba and Sea Island, where he has performed well in the past.

Although trips to Hawaii have been few and far between, McCarthy has such a reliable putting stroke that he can turn up anywhere with Bermuda greens and feel right at home.

Alex Smalley – 55/1 – With back-to-back top-five finishes on the PGA TOUR to round out 2022, Alex Smalley wouldn’t have wanted the year to end.

He’ll be raring to go this week you suspect after playing beautifully at the RSM Classic in particular, a correlating event in which Smalley’s ball-striking was A1.

An increasingly reliable putter of the ball who seems to favor Bermuda greens, Smalley will be hoping to improve on those consecutive top-fives from November.

J.T. Poston – 66/1 – There were just enough positives in J.T. Poston’s game at Kapalua last week to suggest he can kick on at Waialae this.

He couldn’t buy a putt in his opening round, but stuck at it and by the weekend was rolling the rock in much more authoritative fashion.

Poston’s ball-striking has been much better for some time now, since he won the John Deere Classic in the summer in fact, and in ten traditional strokeplay tournaments since the ‘Postman’ has delivered five finishes of T21 or better.

The exposed, windy conditions will not faze a player who has set up home on St Simons’ Island, either.

Will Gordon – 70/1 – Although he hasn’t quite captured the headlines like some other Korn Ferry Tour graduates of recent times, some of Will Gordon’s play lately has been revelatory.

His driving of the golf ball is world class already, and he’s not too shabby with his irons and wedges either. If Gordon can up his putting game, he will become a very dangerous contender.

It’s noteworthy that Gordon’s best efforts so far this season have come at Mayakoba (T3) and the RSM Classic (T15), which the eagle-eyed among you will note are two of our key correlating events to the Sony Open.

Robby Shelton – 120/1 – It’s been a solid start to life on the PGA TOUR for Robby Shelton.

Seven starts have yielded a top-10 – at the RSM Classic, no less – a T15 and a T21, and quality approach play has been the foundation for his efforts.

But most pleasing was that the RSM Classic, his last outing of 2022, represented his best putting performance as well. 

In the five ShotLink events Shelton has played, he has gained shots on the field with his flat stick in three of them, and he looks to be a ready-made PGA TOUR pro.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the Sony Open in Hawaii here.

Sleeper Report Predictions Last Season (2021-2022)

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