Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for the 2017 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

The 2017 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Sleeper Preview

After a brief stop-off in Arizona last week it’s back to California for the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, another of the West Coast Swing’s rotational course tournaments.

This time it is the spectacular Pebble Beach, the leafy Spyglass Hill, and the beatable Monterey Peninsula.  All of these tracks measure in at sub-7000 yards, and so a low total is expected despite the Pro-Am nature of the event.

Those in attendance will be hoping for a repeat of last week’s drama at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, where Hideki Matsuyama successfully defended his crown despite needing four playoff holes to see off the charging Webb Simpson.  That is the Japanese ace’s fourth title win of the season across the globe, and he looks ready to challenge the likes of Dustin Johnson and Jason Day as golf’s dominant force.

Matsuyama is having a well-earned rest this week but DJ and Day will both be in attendance and looking to put behind them an abject showing at the Farmer’s Insurance Open.  They both missed the cut and failed to shoot lower than 72 across their rounds, so perhaps they are ones to avoid here.

There is a high quality feel to this tournament – surprising really given its Pro-Am status – with Jordan Spieth, Patrick Reed, Jon Rahm, and Justin Rose in attendance alongside former Pebble Beach champions Brandt Snedeker, Jimmy Walker, and Phil Mickelson.  Ol’ Lefty has four titles to his name here, and after a decent showing in Arizona last time out will fancy his chances of adding a fifth to his cabinet.

They will all be looking to best reigning champion Vaughn Taylor, who bagged his first PGA TOUR win in more than a decade with a sneak attack on Mickelson 12 months ago.  His final round of 65 blitzed the field in difficult scoring conditions at Pebble Beach, with other contenders like Mickelson, Day, and Roberto Castro falling by the wayside.

With Matsuyama winning last time as a defending champion, what are the chances of Taylor repeating his success?  Low, according to Vegas, who have installed him as a 100/1 outsider, but these short courses are perfect for his green-hitting expertise.

The trio are all short tracks that feature smaller-than-average greens, and while Spyglass Hill offers some respite from the Californian wind with its tree-lined fairways, Pebble Beach leaves the players very much exposed to the conditions.  It played at a stroke average of just over par in 2016, so mastering this beast will be crucial to any hopes of success.  Monterey Peninsula is the track to score on, with numerous rounds of 65 and lower posted 12 months ago.

With all of the above in mind, which five players represent the pick of the sleepers this week?  Let’s dive in…

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The 2017 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The 2017 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

Tony Finau – Vegas Odds 50/1 – We believe there are strong links this week between the Pebble Beach National and the Farmers Insurance Open of just two weeks ago; a tournament which was played in California with course rotation and, crucially, on Poa Annua greens.

One player who showed well there was Tony Finau, who particularly handled the tough Torrey Pines South course with aplomb.  His 67 on the Saturday was one of the standout rounds of the week, and his T4 finish just reward for his efforts.

We’re hoping for similar things this week from a player who is a known Poa Annua enthusiast and whose tee-to-green game is improving all the time; he ranks 14th for SG:T2G and 35th for Greens in Regulation.

Chris Kirk – Vegas Odds 66/1 – Kirk is one of those neat-and-tidy players whose game is ideally suited to shorter tests where landing areas are minimal, and while his T36 return from the Phoenix Open last week might not have been eye-catching, his closing salvo of 66 certainly was.  He will have a spring in his step this week.

The 31-year-old had chances to win earlier in the season at Sanderson Farms and the Safeway Open, and while he couldn’t get the job done at least it showed that he could handle slightly breezier conditions than normal and still hit plenty of greens.

He plays Par 4s well too, and that’s a handy angle in this week.

Charley Hoffman – Vegas Odds 100/1 – Hoffman might not seem to be the most obvious pick for events like this where finesse and clean ball striking are required over brute strength, but he was excellent with his irons in Arizona; gaining +1.567 on approach and +2.205 off the tee on the rest of the field.  His last 54 read 67-69-67 as well, so there’s some nice momentum to carry forward.

He’s San Diego born and raised so he will appreciate the return to his native soil this week, and while he hasn’t played Pebble Beach competitively since 2014 we’re willing to take a chance on a player who has won two PGA TOUR titles and finished in the top-10 on eight other occasions since.

Cameron Smith – Vegas Odds 100/1 – Smith is on record as saying he prefers shorter courses in general and particularly the triumvirate he will tackle this week, and a T11 finish in 2016 suggests that he isn’t bluffing.

At just 23, Smith hasn’t quite made his breakout yet but you sense it might be coming – he’s made cuts in 7/8 starts this term and has a trio of top-30 finishes to his name already, with T10 at Shriners and T11 at Sanderson Farms the picks.  He stuck to his task manfully at Torrey Pines to finish T33, and while his T42 at the WM Phoenix Open was less inspiring he did finish just four shots off another top-20 finish.

Jonas Blixt – Vegas Odds 125/1 – His statistical make-up is nothing to write home about, but boy does Blixt give good value when playing on the West Coast.

The Swede connected top-10s here and at Torrey Pines last year, and he looks ready to achieve a similar feat this year having finished T20 in the Farmers two weeks ago.  He even flirted with leadership at the Phoenix Open last week with a second round of 64, and while his Saturday 75 let him down a Sunday 69 got him back into the money.

Everything in Blixt’s game is working nicely at present so look to him to out perform his Vegas odds this week.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the 2017 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am here.

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