Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – Genesis Open

2019 Genesis Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

Some players simply love certain parts of the world.

Ben Hogan has this week’s host venue, Riviera, named after him; ‘Hogan’s Alley’ born after he won three events here in the space of 18 months, including a US Open.

And few dominate West Coast golf quite like Phil Mickelson, who notched his SIXTEENTH win in California and Arizona at the AT&T Pebble Beach on Monday morning. It may have taken overtime after darkness fell on Sunday evening, but Leftie did not show any signs of weakness in closing out his 44th PGA TOUR win of an ever-astonishing career.

Mickelson has won this week’s event – no surprise there – and he, Bubba Watson and Mike Weir share the unique accolade of being multiple-time, left-handed winners at Riviera.

That’s something for punters to ponder….let’s hope Ted Potter Jr has been polishing his clubs in readiness for a title tilt.

But there is definitely an angle at play here; not necessarily lefties per se, but certainly players comfortable drawing and fading the ball in equal measure around these tight fairways.

That’s the thing with Riviera: there are some testing sightlines off the tee, and while the tree lines are a bit sparser than they used to be, that is still something to consider.

Cameron Smith hits from the fairway on the 18th Hole during the final…

Cameron Smith hits from the fairway on the 18th Hole during the final round of the Genesis Open at the Riviera Country Club Golf Course on February 18, 2018 in Pacific Palisades, CA. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Bubba Watson missed lots of fairways last year – pretty much half, in fact – but that didn’t stop him from lifting the trophy; his third in five trips to the Pacific Palisades.

Bubba’s approach here of missing the fairways to leave the right angles in to the tight Poa Annua greens is novel but works, and if that course experience is key then perhaps we shouldn’t be too surprised to note that three former Riviera champions – Watson, Mickelson and James Hahn – ranked inside the top five for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green last year.

It’s a high-quality field that will assemble this week, and while we might ordinarily expect one of the class acts to get the job done, remember that the likes of Hahn, John Merrick and Aaron Baddeley have all won here too.

For that reason, we should feel excited about our Genesis Open sleeper picks this week.

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The Genesis Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The Genesis Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

Sergio Garcia – Vegas Odds 50/1 – Okay, so his DQ at the Saudi International was rather unsavory.

Sergio had a series of tantrums that ultimately ended with him being charged for damaging FIVE bunkers with typically Mediterranean ‘passion’.

But we all make mistakes and have bad days at the office, and if you dig a bit deeper you’ll find Garcia’s form to be good.

He banked six top-10s in a row dating back to his triumph on home soil at the Valderrama Masters, and that’s a measure of how well he is striking the ball.

We could write all night about the surprising link between Riviera and Augusta National, but clearly backing a classy Masters champion in this quality field is a no-brainer; and at odds of 50/1 too!

Louis Oosthuizen – Vegas Odds 50/1 – With much of his best work coming overseas, it’s possible that Louis Oosthuizen might go unbacked this week.

But a confidence boosting win at the South African Open might just be the catalyst he needs to produce better form in the US too.

His formline – 4-7-1-3 – hints at the quality in his game right now, and as a somebody with a T2 finish at Augusta – and four top-25 finishes in his last five starts in the Masters – the South African is good value this week.

Charles Howell III – Vegas Odds 60/1 – It’s slightly baffling that a player with a formline of 20-34-8-14-1 could be considered nothing more than an also-ran this week.

Chucky has played well here before, with a T15 coming in 2017, and his clean ball-striking is serving him anywhere he goes at present.

We’ll see if he can win in better company than he had at the RSM Classic at the tail-end of 2018, but one thing that is for sure is that Howell III is playing better golf than many above him in the betting right now.

Rafa Cabrera-Bello – Vegas Odds 66/1 – Time has a habit of playing tricks on the mind, but it wasn’t all that long ago that Rafa Cabrera-Bello was finishing T10 at the PGA Championships.

He followed that up with T7 and T11 in two of the FedExCup events, a strong Asian Swing (T3 and T14) and some decent form on the European Tour, with T6 at the Hong Kong Open the pick of the bunch.

A missed cut last time out at the Desert Classic may be enough to put off a few, but let’s be frank: a desert course and Riviera CC have very little in common.

The Spaniard is ranked 32nd in the world and having played well both here and at Augusta in the past looks a touch overpriced by the sportsbooks.

Martin Laird – Vegas Odds 100/1 – The Scot has something of a penchant for this time of the season, and his T9 here 12 months ago has been followed up this West Coast swing by some encouraging signs.

At the moment, Laird is playing that frustrating brand of golf where he is scoring well….just not for 72 holes at a time.

Rounds of 65 and 68 at the Phoenix Open, and 66-69 at the Farmers Insurance Open, were followed by some really mediocre stuff as well.

But surely we must take the positives from his play and hope he utilizes them at a layout where his formline reads 9-8-11.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for The The Genesis Open here.

Sleeper Report Predictions This Season (2018-2019)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”2.94%” bar_text=”2 out of 68 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”11.76%” bar_text=”8 out of 68 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”35.29%” bar_text=”24 out of 68 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”7.14%” bar_text=”1 out of 14 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”7.14%” bar_text=”1 out of 14 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”64.70%” bar_text=”44 out of 68 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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Cover photo via Instagram