Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – WGC Mexico Championship
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2019 WGC Mexico Championship
2019 WGC Mexico Championship Fantasy Preview
When Paul Casey surrendered a three-shot lead with a round to play at Pebble Beach a little over a week ago, nobody was overly surprised.
The Englishman is a sublime ball striker, of course, but his record in contention isn’t the best, and so few eyebrows were raised when Phil Mickelson streaked past him in the final straight.
A week later and a little further down the West Coast, nobody quite expected Justin Thomas to suffer the same fate at the Genesis Open….least of all us, given that JT was our top tier pick.
But the 25-year-old suffered a rare case of finishing line nerves as he bogeyed three of the opening five holes on Sunday to let his own three-shot lead slip.
And the next surprise came in the identity of the man that would ultimately lift the trophy.
It wasn’t Adam Scott, the major champion within touching distance of JT prior to the final round, but J.B. Holmes; the 36-year-old without a win in the best part of four years.
Justin Thomas hits a second shot on the 13th hole during the…
Justin Thomas hits a second shot on the 13th hole during the continuation of the third round of the Genesis Open at Riviera Country Club on February 17, 2019 in Pacific Palisades, California. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
The deluge of rain made Riviera CC play longer than normal, and Holmes’ ability to power his irons long and avoid the wet rough gave him the perfect platform to strike.
Okay, so he’s not everybody’s cup of tea – his torturously slow pace a real dower to watch, but Holmes has overcome major brain surgery to return to the PGA TOUR’s winners’ circle and for that he deserves immense credit.
This week we move on with the first WGC event of the year down in Mexico, and a fantastic field will assemble just outside of Mexico City to challenge for the rather tasty $1.7 million winner’s share of the prize fund.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Our horse pick last week was Justin Thomas, and despite falling short at the end to finish solo 2nd, JT still managed to bank 116 fantasy points to continue his streak of triple digits FP to four straight events.
Another highlight was our mid-tier pick Matsuyama who came in at T9 with 73.5 fantasy points.
In the end however it was J.B. Holmes who jumped over JT late Sunday to take the title.
B. Holmes poses with the trophy after winning the Genesis Open at…
B. Holmes poses with the trophy after winning the Genesis Open at Riviera Country Club on February 17, 2019 in Pacific Palisades, California. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
The 2019 WGC Mexico Championship Field
The WGC events are one of the few times of the year that the leading lights on both the PGA and European Tours do battle.
Representing the US will be Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka and many more elite performers, while the European charge will be led by Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm.
There is also a strong Australasian theme too, with Marc Leishman, Hideki Matsuyama and Si-Woo Kim just three of the players looking to get their hands on the gold.
Those old bosom buddies Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods are of interest this week. Lefty is the defending champion after he ended his four-and-a-half year winless streak here 12 months ago, while Tiger Woods will tee it up at Club de Golf Chapultepec for the first time in his career.
Remember, this is a 72-man field with no cut at any point during the four rounds.
Tiger Woods walks up the 13th hole fairway during the third round of…
Tiger Woods walks up the 13th hole fairway during the third round of the Genesis Open at Riviera Country Club on February 16, 2019 in Pacific Palisades, California. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
This Week’s Course Preview
Into its third year as the host of this event, Golf Club de Chapultepec is fast becoming a favorite with the players.
It’s very easy on the eye, with almost luminescent grass and foliage on the thick trees that line the fairways, and playing at an altitude of some 7,500ft above sea level there are some staggering views of the surrounding landscapes to enjoy too.
That altitude helps to temper some of the length – at 7,300 yards for its Par 71, this layout would ordinarily play quite long, but this isn’t a bomber’s paradise by any stretch of the imagination.
Indeed, the emphasis is more on strategy, with the trees providing some tight driving lines at times and the clever bunkering around the greens gobbling up any errant approaches.
Intriguingly, the venue uses the same set-up as Riviera with its Kikuyu fairways and Poa Annua/Bentgrass mix greens, and as the players found out last week – some to their cost – these Kikuyu surfaces, especially the rough, can be a nightmare to play from when wet.
Happily for the players, the maniacal weather experienced these past few weeks on the West Coast swing will be well forgotten in the Mexican sunshine.
A general view during the third round of World Golf…
A general view during the third round of World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship at Club de Golf Chapultepec on March 3, 2018 in Mexico City, Mexico. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Weather Forecast for Mexico City, Mexico
The good news is that the rains that have battered the players at times these last two weeks are a thing of the past.
It’s full-on bright sunshine in this Mexican town, according to the early forecast, with temperatures hovering around the 78 degree mark for all four days.
Indeed, there’s nothing problematic at all in the forecast, although the wind speeds – hitting 14 mph on Thursday before reducing to 11 mph by Sunday – could be a factor. The breeze will tend to strengthen throughout the day.
Last Year’s Results from the WGC Mexico Championship
For quite some time, it appeared as if a new star was going to be born at this event 12 months ago.
Shubhankar Sharma, a two-time winner on the European Tour, was all but unheard of elsewhere, but he announced himself onto the world golfing stage by leading the WGC-Mexico pretty much from wire to wire in 2018.
In the end, the Indian’s challenge faltered as he battled the inevitable nerves on Sunday, playing his opening nine holes in +1 while the great and good assembled around him on the leaderboard.
Sergio Garcia also fluffed his lines when well placed, so it was down to Phil Mickelson and Justin Thomas to duke it out after finished tied on -16.
Lefty had played a miraculous approach through a tiny gap in the trees on 14 to keep his hopes alive; especially after Thomas holed out to make eagle on 18.
The playoff was a rather more straightforward encounter, with Thomas missing a par putt from inside 10-feet to hand Mickelson his long-awaited victory.
Highlights | Round 4 | Mexico Championship
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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the WGC Mexico Championship this Week
We’re in WGC territory here and that can mean only one thing: a slate of contests bettered only by the majors!
- PGA $500k Drive the Green: It’s the standard ‘big daddy’ contest these days, but where else would you be apply to apply skill – rather than mere luck – to a $5 stake for the chance to win $100k?
- PGA $400k Mini Mexico Classic: There are three separate contests offering top prizes of $100k or better this week, and this is arguably the pick of the bunch for a $44 buy-in. The first 20 players home will trouser a minimum of $1k.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the WGC Mexico Championship
Because there’s only been two editions of this event at Golf Club de Chapultepec, unfortunately we don’t yet have a clear consensus of the profile of our perfect player here.
You might think there are similarities between Dustin Johnson and Mickelson, our two previous winners. Both long and occasionally wild off the tee, but with strong short games and a reliable putting stroke.
In Phil’s case, that was the exact recipe for success 12 months ago, and yet DJ produced a sublime show of ball-striking from tee-to-green to take the spoils in 2017.
So let’s focus on what we do know: there will be some shot shaping off the tee to navigate the tree lines, which are much denser than those on show at Riviera last week. And these small-sized greens are baked rock hard by the Mexican sun, so approaching from close range with wedge or short iron in hand is ideal.
Lefty only found 48% of fairways last year but made 69% of GIR, which shows how well he scrambled, and ranking third for Strokes Gained: Putting will always help.
Otherwise, it’s likely that the best man will win. Given the certain similarities, it’s no surprise that both Mickelson and Johnson had finished inside the top-20 in the Genesis Open a week prior to victory in Mexico, and that might just be the key angle once again this week.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the WGC Mexico Championship
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the WGC Mexico Championship
*This early in the season some players do not qualify enough stats to register a FPGP and GPFP.
Top Tier Pick #1:
Justin Thomas (Odds: 10/1, FPPG: 102.4, GPFP: 132.04 Salary: $11,800)
What is it that motivates sportsmen and women that have earned more money than they could ever wish for?
In most cases, it’s professional pride and a chance for redemption where mistakes have been made in the past.
You could argue that Justin Thomas has two big reasons to go hard in Mexico.
The horrors of Sunday will not have escaped him, and while he was very courteous and respectful on Twitter following the conclusion of the Genesis Open, privately he must have been seething with his own inability to take care of business.
And it’s that motivation, plus the knowledge that he lost out in a playoff here 12 months ago, that for us makes JT a lock this week.
Is he playing well enough to win? You bet: he opened 66-65-65 at Riviera, and has now ranked inside the top-five for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in each of his last three starts.
Factor in course form of 2-5, and surely Thomas will at least go close once again in Mexico.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 1st
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 1st
- Birdie Average – 2nd
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Hideki Matsuyama (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 78.8, GPFP: 99.28 Salary: $9,000)
Like Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama is playing extremely well from tee-to-green right now and that will surely be reflected in a shot at a title soon enough.
We drafted the Japanese ace alongside JT last week and both banked top-10s, and we’re expecting something similar – if not better – in Mexico.
Matusyama ranked sixth for SG: Tee-to-Green at Riviera to go with second for the same metric at TPC Scottsdale, and with his chipping game in fine order too clearly it’s just a cold putter separating him from greater success right now.
These grainy Poa/Bentgrass surfaces will run slower than their counterparts at Riviera last time out, so perhaps that could prove the difference for the Japanese star to add another PGA TOUR title to his collection.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 2nd
- SG: Approach – 4th
- Scoring Average – 15th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Francesco Molinari (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 53.3, GPFP: 56.98 Salary: $8,100)
Given his ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee, Francesco Molinari comes into consideration for many events: he’s not a major champion for nothing.
The Italian has been enjoying some downtime after a manic 2018, and now we expect him to up his game as he gets ready for the year ahead.
This low salary is as much to do with activity as anything else, with Molinari not teeing it up anywhere since the Tournament of Champions.
But he’s been beavering away behind the scenes, and one of the very best golfers on the planet last year will surely show his class this week.
Key Stats (2018):
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 8th
- SG: Approach – 10th
- Scoring Average – 14th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Chez Reavie (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 81.3, GPFP: 81.30 Salary: $7,100)
A lack of power won’t inhibit Chez Reavie here, with the altitude helping his ball to fly.
Besides, Phil Mickelson won here with an average Driving Distance of 280 yards, so it would be foolhardy to discard the short hitters completely.
Reavie’s accuracy off the peg could be a real asset to him here, and he has a habit of playing well in events where small greens are the order of the day: think T3 in the Sony Open and T6 in the St Jude Classic.
He missed the cut at Riviera but as mentioned, that track played very long with the rain softening the fairways, and a player with a T4 finish two starts ago (Phoenix Open) should be respected at this kind of price.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy – 2nd
- SG: Approach – 15th
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 36th
Low-Tier Pick:
Emiliano Grillo (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 83.4, GPFP: 66.70 Salary: $6,900)
The Spanish speaking Grillo should feel right at home in Mexico this week, and will be looking to capitalize on good form that stretches back many months now.
Grillo hasn’t missed a cut since the British Open, and a handy top-10 strike rate of around 20% showcases the Argentine’s consistency.
An excellent ball-striker who ranks third and tenth for strokes gained on approach and from tee-to-green respectively, neither the presence of trees or wind will trouble this well-traveled player, who has shown comfortably playing in all conditions.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 3rd
- Total Driving – 9th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 10th
Sleeper Pick for the WGC Mexico Championship
Henrik Stenson (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 47.0, GPFP: 42.77 Salary: $7,200)
With three missed cuts on his resumé of late, there’s every chance that Henrik Stenson will fly under the radar this week.
But that trio of missed weekends all came at desert courses, and we’re not overly convinced they suit his natural game.
Instead, the Swede’s accurate ball striking and ability to hammer his three-wood between thick tree-lined fairways should be the key consideration at a price which is borderline offensive.
Stenson played very nicely on the Asian Swing – showcasing his abilities to travel well – and as long as he is healthy the 42-year-old should far outperform his salary here.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy – 1st
- SG: Approach – 1st
- Greens in Regulation – 1st
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the WGC Mexico Championship
Richard Sterne (Odds: 250/1, FPPG: 58.4, GPFP: 46.75 Salary: $6,700)
If you’re opting for a top-heavy draft this week, then Richard Sterne could be a clever sleeper to help balance your books.
The South African is a two-time winner of the Joburg Open, which is played at altitude and on Kikuyu grass too.
A lot of South Africans are adept at playing on tree-lined courses because there are so many of them in that part of the world, and as a winner at Celtic Manor Sterne has shown the versatility to take care of business in high winds too.
Most importantly, he has found some nice form of late. Solo second at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, he finished T13 at the Saudi International a couple of weeks later too.
Key Stats (European Tour):
- Driving Accuracy – 60.71%
- Driving Distance – 302.61 yards
- Greens in Regulation – 69.75%
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2018-2019)
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