Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – Genesis Open

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for the 2017 Genesis Open

The 2017 Genesis Open Sleeper Preview

What has happened to the weather on the West Coast?  It’s always sunny in California, right?  Wrong.  Another week of PGA TOUR action has been blighted by howitzer rainfall and horizontal gusts of wind, and with Pebble Beach being a tough course to master at the best of times it was no surprise to see Jordan Spieth, who is excellent in adverse weather, stand head-and-shoulders above the field at the AT&T Pebble Beach National last week and triumph pretty much from wire-to-wire.

The 23-year-old was itching to get back into the winner’s circle after watching his friend Justin Thomas make such huge strides this season, and that kind of friendly rivalry – or jealousy as it used to be known – can do wonders for a player’s motivation.  Expect to see the same levels of determination from the likes of Dustin Johnson and Jason Day this week.

We’re heading down the road from Pebble Beach to the Pacific Palisades this time around, where a huge gantry will enjoy the Genesis Open at the sumptuous Riviera Country Club.

Spieth and Thomas will renew acquaintances, and they will be joined by a stellar cast that also includes Day and DJ, along with winners last time out in Hideki Matsuyama and Sergio Garcia, reigning champion Bubba Watson, and a litany of golf’s great and good, from Justin Rose and Patrick Reed to Brooks Koepka and Adam Scott.  Such a packed field should make for an excellent spectacle.

What can the players expect at Riviera?  A unique test, that’s for sure.  There are the Poa Annua greens that Californian tracks are known for, but unusually this is a track lined with Kikuyu grass, which is more commonly used in South Africa.  This type of turf can be rather unforgiving when wet, so let’s look for players who can keep the ball in play off the peg this week.

The real danger of Riviera comes in the form of its small greens though, which are supremely difficult to a) hit, due to their size, and b) stick on, with sloping gradients and runoff areas turning good shots bad in the blink of an eye.  So, strong iron play is essential this week.

That’s an insight into the profile of player we need on-side this week, so who are we backing in our Sleeper Report?  Let’s take a look…

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The 2017 Genesis Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The 2017 Genesis Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

Patrick Reed – Vegas Odds 50/1 – If you can get Patrick Reed at 50/1 Vegas odds for any event, he is worth getting on-side.  We believe that 2017 will be the year that he really comes of age; yes, he was awesome at the Ryder Cup, but we mean in terms of winning tournaments on the scale of Spieth, Day etc.  Reed certainly has the short game to excel at Riviera, and while he hasn’t caught light there in the past this could be his time.  Remember, a T68 at the WM Phoenix Open is an aberration on a formline that reads 10-6-12-23, which culminated in three rounds under par in the Pebble Beach National last time out.

Marc Leishman – Vegas Odds 66/1 – The outstanding course management skills of the Aussie have stood him in good stead of late, with five top-25 finishes in as many starts.  Eleven of his last fifteen rounds have been in the 60s too, which confirms the form that Leishman is bringing to the party.  He should have good memories of Riviera too; his past form here has not always been that great, but a T5 in this event 12 months ago showcases just how well suited his innate knack for plotting his way around tough tracks is.  You won’t find many players on the PGA TOUR who hit more greens (he ranks 13th for GIR), and his ability to break par (he ranks inside the top 40 for Par 3, Par 4, and Par 5 Scoring) will stand him in good stead if conditions do take a turn for the worse as expected this week.

Branden Grace – Vegas Odds 80/1 – You would expect the South Africans to have some kind of advantage this week given that they were born and raised on these Kikuyu grasses, and Grace is in good enough form to capitalize.  His last start Stateside came at the Sony Open where he finished T13 with four rounds of 68 or lower, and in 2017 he has also bagged a T13 in the HSBC Championship in Abu Dhabi in his only other start this year.  Grace is fresh, well rested and will have been working meticulously on his game ‘behind closed doors,’ and like Reed he is another who should really be winning more often.  Perhaps the Genesis Open will be a starting point.

Francesco Molinari – Vegas Odds 100/1 – the Italian’s game looks absolutely perfect for success at Riviera, and while he hasn’t quite done the job here in the past at least he heads to the West Coast in the best form of his life.  His string of form reads 6-4-12-14, and that includes a couple of jaunts where he went close to winning.  Molinari’s game has kicked on since winning his home Italian Open last autumn, and as a member of the European Tour he will have played plenty of times on Kikuyu grass in the past.  An absolute machine from tee-to-green and a proven event winner, we are really sweet on Molinari this week.

Kelly Kraft – Vegas Odds 150/1 – this might appear to be a ‘hipster pick’ given Kraft’s exceptional T2 in the Pebble Beach National last week, but it was the manner of his performance that really caught our eye.  He picked up a huge +4.21 strokes from tee to green and +2.08 on approach, and that was in these ghastly Californian conditions we have been experiencing of late.  If those howling winds and rains return this week, then Kraft is in a better place than many of his competitors here to deal with them.  And besides, the 29-year-old has been on our radar for a number of weeks having recorded T21, T27, and T28 finishes at the RSM Classic, Sony Open and Farmers Insurance Open respectively.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the 2017 Genesis Open here.

Cover photo via Instagram