Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – The Honda Classic

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for The Honda Classic

2017 Honda Classic Fantasy Preview

That officially makes three winners in as many weeks for this column courtesy of the majestic Dustin Johnson, who decimated the field on his way to a five-stroke victory over Scott Brown and the outstanding young talent Thomas Pieters.  Not only is that a hat-trick for us, it also marks the first time that DJ has got his hands on a trophy at Riviera CC despite threatening many times before.  Needless, to say our Premium Members are flying high in their fantasy leagues right now.

Those of you who are on the ball will also note that the three Vegas sportsbook favorites have now triumphed in the last three events: Johnson following in the footsteps of Jordan Spieth (AT&T Pebble Beach) and Hideki Matsuyama (Phoenix Open).  Justin Thomas will be hoping that lightning strikes again at this week’s tournament: The Honda Classic.

With that, the PGA TOUR now makes it annual leap to the Florida Swing, and the testing PGA National course in Palm Beach is our host for this, the tenth anniversary of the Honda Classic touching down at this famous stretch.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the Genesis Open

We knew DJ was the man last week as all of our indicators were telling us.  Although Spieth was the easy pick for most (coming off a dominant win), most fantasy players over spent their salary cap on him and it ended up costing them big time.  Dustin Johnson was the third most expensive player in the field but we could tell something was up with him heading into the week.

 

Given DJ’s form of late, we knew it was his week to break through which is why we made him our Top Tier Pick for the Gensis Open.  Not only did he win, but DJ made four bogeys all week to go along with this 47 pars, 21 birdies, and two bogey free rounds.  His first place finish gave him an additional +30 points for a grand total of 123.5 fantasy points.

To recap here’s what we said about DJ heading into the week:

We’ll be honest: it was a straight-up fight between Johnson and Spieth for top billing this week, and the main reason that DJ won out was because you just never know how a champion is going to react a week later.

But let’s not diminish DJ here: he boasts an outstanding record at Riviera in going 7-for-9 including four top-5 in his last five visits.  There simply isn’t a better horse for the course this week, apart from Bubba arguably.

And then there was his run last week at Pebble Beach, where he appeared to return to somewhere like his best form.  Hitting plenty of greens in tricky conditions, DJ gained +2.96 of his strokes from tee-to-green and +0.94 in his approach work, and his season’s ranking of 17th for Total Driving confirms he is one of the best off the tee in the business.

So everything appears to be coming together for Johnson this week….could he provide us with its third straight winner?  We certainly think so!

Despite the DJ win, we caught the mid-round WD and missed-cut bug from a lot of our other players.  Hopefully our Premium Members mixed and matched around DJ using our GPFP and Key Stats tools this week to cash in.

The 2017 Honda Classic Field

As mentioned, it’s Justin Thomas who arguably headlines the field this week alongside reigning champion Adam Scott and the ever-excellent Sergio Garcia.  All three have previous success in Florida, so they will be expected to go well once again.

There is a strong international contingent in the field this week given the proclivity for ‘foreign’ champions in this event – seven of the last ten winners have been non-US players.  Fallen Ryder Cup stars such as Matt Fitzpatrick, Rafa Cabrera-Bello, and Masters winner Danny Willett are in town, alongside the highly-rated Tyrell Hatton and Thomas Pieters.

Elsewhere the likes of Rickie Fowler, Paul Casey, Russell Knox, and Dan Berger will be hoping to get their hands on the trophy given how close they have come at PGA National in the past.

This Week’s Course Preview

This week we’re at the tough-old favorite in PGA National, a former Ryder Cup and PGA Championship venue.  There’s no surprise to learn that only one former winner here in the last five years has reached double digits under par.

The 7,158 yard Par 70 was initially designed by Tom and George Fazio, although it was given a going-over by Jack Nicklaus in 1990; a makeover which created the infamous ‘Bear Trap’ of holes from 15-17.  Plenty of hopes have faded and dreams have been crushed at this treacherous trio.

The fairways and greens are heavily bunkered and as we have made the switch from California to Florida so too do we make the transition from Poa Annua to Bermuda grass – something for deep stat nerds like us to note down.

For DFS gamers who like this kind of thing, both the 72 and 18 hole records at PGA National are owned by current players: Camilo Villegas, with a totals core of 267 set back in 2010, and Brian Harman, whose Friday 61 back in 2012 led him to a T12 finish.

Weather Forecast for Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Whisper it quietly, but we might actually evade the rainclouds for the first time in what feels like an eternity.

Okay, so scattered showers are predicted on Thursday and Sunday, but with the chain of rain estimated to be 60% we may well escape the worst of it.

As with the Californian Swing, winds are anticipated at around 15 mph, although the worst of those are predicted for Thursday and Sunday.

Is there any sign of a draw bias that so hampered the Genesis Open?  Possibly: the early starters on Thursday will have the worst of the rain while the afternoon tee times will get nice soft greens to attack and sunny spells.  But with Friday set fair, any early advantage will be negligible.

On Sunday rain is expected to creep in at around 3 pm, so we could be set for a soggy finish and unpredictable finish!

Last Year’s Results from The Honda Classic

In 2016 it was two international stars who duked it out for supremacy on Championship Sunday with Adam Scott and Sergio Garcia locked in a battle for the silverware.  It was the Australian’s first PGA TOUR triumph after switching to the short putter, and came on the back of a second-place return at Riviera the week before.

In truth, Scott’s victory never looked in doubt; even after a horrendous seven at the Par 3 15th on the Saturday threatened to open the door to others.  The Aussie held firm on the back nine on Sunday to see off the hopes of Garcia and Justin Thomas in third.

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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for The Honda Classic this Week

Instead of the usual DraftKings games this week, we thought we’d introduce you to something new, unique, and even a bit easier to win given the contest structure.

That’s right, there’s a new DFS game in town and it’s called DRAFT.  Visit PlayDRAFT.com for more details on how their weekly golf contests work.

Best of all, our comrades over at The Golf Podcast have even worked in a coupon code for us.  First-time players can use coupon code ‘golfpodcast‘ at checkout for a 100% deposit bonus.  Download the app here on iTunes and Android.

As always though there’s still plenty of action on DraftKings as well and here are a few contests we think have the best odds and payouts.

• PGA $475K Dogleg: Is there a more fun way to try and win $50k?  We can’t think of many, and all for just $33. The top 3860 finishers will all but double their money in this 16.6k team contest.

• PGA $400k Birdie: For those on a budget how about this whopper of a contest.  A $3 buy-in offers you the chance to win the $25k jackpot; the top 25% of finishers all trouser a prize.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for The Honda Classic

Despite the move from LA to Florida the general feeling is that conditions will be Californian in their nature: breezy and with outbursts of rain.  Those players who got stuck into the last few weeks should feel right at home!

There’s also a sense that the golfing test will be similar to those of late: Pebble Beach and Riviera featured non-penal conditions off the tee but hard-to-hit greens, and although the change from Poa Annua to Bentgrass is of significance, recent form is also a huge factor.  It certainly helped Scott, who went from silver to gold in the space of a week here 12 months ago.

So what did the Aussie do well?  As has been the case of late, hitting these small greens is essential: Scott was at 76% GIR last year and gained a huge +3.25 strokes from tee-to-green.  So clearly this has to be the main port-of-call when drafting.

Tee work was of relative importance – Scott landed 69% of fairways and +1.18 strokes off the peg, but really it is the second half of holes where the money is made: the Aussie aiding his cause with +1.92 strokes on the approach.

This being a Par 70 track there are only two Par 5s to attack, and boy you had better hope your picks make the most of them.  Scott played the longer holes at -6 last year in a string that read 4-4-3-4-4-5-5-5, so doing the business here early in the week is key.  With four of the Par 4s measuring 450 yards or more, bogey avoidance will also become a key metric.

Lastly, we’re expecting strong winds again and PGA National is a fairly exposed track; so expertise in gusty conditions is key.  Perhaps that’s why the non-US players have performed so well here in the past!

One last bit of advice for those of you who are torn between two or three players and have to pick only one: our Key Fantasy Stats Tool allows you to stack up players within a certain salary cap with eight different stats to choose from.  For example, if you are looking for players at $7,000 this with the best scrambling percentage, our system will sort the best in field in that range.  Use this to your advantage when making alternate rosters this week.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The Honda Classic

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The Honda Classic

Please Note: Due to the limited events played in 2017, some players have not yet accrued enough stats to qualify for an accurate GPFP.

Top Tier Pick : 

Sergio Garcia (Odds: 18/1, FPPG: 96.8, GPFP: 86.11 Salary: $10,900)

The Spaniard looks to be an excellent pick on paper, and so that assertion is proven true by his form at PGA National.

Three visits have returned 2-31-8, with that second-place finish 12 months ago a sign of how comfortable he is playing on Bermuda grass in Florida.

He won earlier in February at the Dubai Desert Classic, and while T49 doesn’t appear that impressive at first glance it is worth noting that Garcia gained +1.80 strokes from tee-to-green; which as we know is a key metric this week.

With the switch back to Bermuda you just know that Garcia will come into his own, and he himself would probably admit last week’s outing was a warm-up for what should be a tilt at the title this week.  So can he lead us to four winners in a row?

Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green – 4th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 6th
• GIR Percentage – 10th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Russell Knox (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 69.0, GPFP: 55.20 Salary: $9,000)

In tournaments like this that feel like they are there for the taking it pays to go a little ‘top heavy’ with your roster, and that’s why we’ve packed three elite-level picks into our draft alongside some bargain options.

Scotsman Knox has played PGA National three times – 26-3-2 is an impressive run here by anyone’s standards, and you could get the sense that in wind conditions and on Bermuda surfaces he is as likely as anyone to prosper.

After bagging a pair of titles in 2016 and two runners-up spots, it has been a quiet start to the new term for Knox although a T3 at the OHL Classic back in November was an obvious highlight.  A missed cut at the WM Phoenix Open has put the dampeners on a mini run of T17 (Tournament of Champions) and T11 (Sony Open), but having enjoyed plenty of time off of late expect a much-improves showing from the Scot this week.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 5th
• Greens in Regulation – 6th
• Par 5 Scoring Average – 10th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Daniel Berger (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 72.0, GPFP: 57.60 Salary: $8,900)

Here’s an impressive young talent who we expect to get back to winning ways in 2017, and what better event than one he narrowly missed out on victory in back in 2015.

That playoff defeat started a fire in Berger, and the Florida native (who also went to college in the State such is his love of the place) would claim the first title of his career at the St. Jude Classic in June of last year.

It has been a mixed bag so far in 2017 but his best performance of the year to date came in his last outing at the WM Phoenix Open, where after an opening 71 he followed up with 66-66-68 to finish T7.

Coming back to his home turf, Berger will surely be confident of making a decent fist of another shot at the title.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 17th
• Birdie Average – 23rd
• Strokes Gained: Total – 41st

Low-Tier Pick #1:

Martin Flores (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 61.5, GPFP: 49.12 Salary: $7,100)

Someone who we hope will make the cut with ease is Flores, who has made the weekend in six of his eight starts this term.

There’s some handy PGA National form to call upon too at 17-12-MC-36, and with a T14 return in very testing conditions in his last start at Pebble Beach you can rest assured he is confident in his game.

There is a feeling that Flores, at the age of 35, hasn’t quite fulfilled his potential, although he may just have enjoyed a rebirth at the tailend of last season having won on the Web.com Tour.  Yes, it’s not as prestigious as the main Tour, but as we’ve witnessed this season there are some very talented young players graduating from those lower ranks.

PGA National is one of Flores’ favorite courses, so let’s hope for a top-25 from him this week.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 7th
• Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green – 35th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 46th

Low-Tier Pick #2:

John Huh (Odds: 160/1, FPPG: 58.8, GPFP: 62.33 Salary: $6,800)

To save some money this week our final non-sleeper pick is the enigma that is John Huh.

Why doesn’t Huh do better?  It’s a fair question given his obvious talent, and while making cuts doesn’t seem to be a problem – he’s made the weekend in 9/10 starts this season, plus one MDF– kicking on and cashing in seems to be an issue.

Happily, PGA National is one track where he has a habit of performing.  A string of 14-17-MC-36 is more than pleasing for a budget pick, and his neat-and-tidy game does seem well suited to this Floridian test.

Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green – 45th
• Greens in Regulation – 47th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 59th

Sleeper Pick for The Honda Classic

Wes Bryan (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 53.3, GPFP: 42.64 Salary: $6,600)

After finishing tied for fourth at Riviera you might think the cat is out of the bag regarding this outstanding young talent, but no: the Vegas sportsbooks have him available at a bargain 150/1!

That’s very surprising, as even a quick bit of research will note that in his sole start at PGA National in this event Bryan finished a hugely impressive T9 as a rookie.

The 26-year-old has had a pretty mixed start to life on the main tour, but his game looks ideally suited to shorter tests where greens are hard to hit.  In gaining +1.36 shots from tee-to-green and +1.08 on approach last week, he served notice of that.

Key Stats:

• Par 3 Scoring Average – 33rd
• Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green – 40th
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green – 46th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for The Honda Classic

Nick Watney (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 58.5, GPFP: 46.80 Salary: $7,100)

It’s easy to forget that Watney is a five-time PGA TOUR winner, after a barren run and surgery seemed to derail his career completely in 2015/16.

But of late the signs are that he is finding his feet as a pro golfer again.  After three missed cuts, he returned home for the Californian Swing and found things to be very much to his liking; as returns of T14 and T24 in testing conditions at Pebble Beach and Riviera testify.

Watney made the cut in both his previous starts at PGA National with a T24 in 2014 his best effort, and so as a cheap option he could well do the job.

Key Stats:

• Par 3 Scoring – 11th
• Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green – 54th
• Greens in Regulation – 70th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineups

Sample Lineup #1

 

Sample Lineup #2

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2016-2017)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”7.69%” bar_text=”7 out of 91 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”20.87%” bar_text=”19 out of 91 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”37.36%” bar_text=”34 out of 91 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”23.08%” bar_text=”3 out of 13 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”7.70%” bar_text=”1 out of 13 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”70.32″ bar_text=”64 out of 91 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2017 Honda Classic with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram