Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – Safeway Open

2019 Safeway Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

Two weeks of the season, two maiden PGA TOUR winners. There’s a theme developing!

Okay, so the scheduling dictates that this juncture of the season is ripe for the picking for players with designs on winning silverware, but even so you still have to go and take care of business.

And that’s exactly what Joaquin Niemann did at the Greenbrier, and exactly what his friend Sebastian Munoz did at the Sanderson Farms Championship last week.

The Colombian accelerated his chances of a President’s Cup with victory in Mississippi, and he showed the kind of character needed for top-level team golf by holding his nerve in normal play and in the one-hole playoff he needed to see off Sungjae Im.

With all due respect to those concerned, there is a clear step-up in quality this week at the Safeway Open.

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The sunny Napa Valley location helps to draw the elite out of hibernation, and so bettors can take their pick from the likes of Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Adam Scott and Francesco Molinari this week, as well as Californian favorite Phil Mickelson.

They will be tempted out by the warm weather and the chance to tackle the Silverado Resort layout, which is neither easy nor hard, if that makes sense.

Some holes are quite tricky, with tree-lined fairways that are thinner than is the norm, with thick rough and deep bunkers waiting to lap up any errant drives. But those are the only man-made defenses, although high winds could add to the difficulty awaiting the players – even if these Poa Annua greens run nice and slowly on the stimp, which gives even weaker putters the chance to shine.

But even so, there are plenty of scoring opportunities too, not least the stretch from sixteen through eighteen. Two Par 5s that are reachable in two, and a Par 4 that is just 375 yards, are easily reachable.

And that will set up an exciting finish on Sunday, with those a couple adrift on the leaderboard certainly not out of the equation – as shown by Kevin Tway’s hurtle through the field in round four a year ago.

He birdied 17 and 18 to force his way into a playoff, where his forward momentum proved too much for the slow-finishing Brandt Snedeker and Ryan Moore. That was Tway’s maiden PGA TOUR win….there’s definitely something in the air with first-time winners.

So, there’s plenty to look forward to in the Napa Valley this week, and we’ve drawn up a shortlist of five sleeper picks for the Safeway Open that will hopefully give bettors an excellent run for their money.

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Safeway Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

Emiliano Grillo – 50/1 – Our thesis that Silverado is a course where tee-to-green merchants can shine – even those who would lose in a putting contest to their grandparents at a crazy golf course.

Grillo fits the profile of a flusher who simply cannot putt, and the fact he has won at this course before helps to back up our theory.

The Argentine really is a brilliant ball-striker, and it will only require him to heat up with his putter for a couple of back-to-back rounds to really contend.

Excellent off the tee, if Grillo brings his best iron-play to Napa then who knows – maybe he can add a second Safeway Open title to his collection.

Ryan Moore – 60/1 – Ahead of last year’s edition of the Safeway Open, Ryan Moore had shown no signs of form whatsoever – and yet he still found himself in a playoff.

It was confirmation of what many have suspected for a good few years now: Moore is the kind of ‘course horse’ who shows up and does the business at his favorite tracks year in, year out.

Fast forward to this week ad there’s a bit more for Moore fans to look forward to. He banked top-20s at the John Deere Classic and the Northern Trust, and while his FedExCup campaign was curtailed early – partly due to injury earlier in the season – he still showed his class at the business end of the campaign.

If he’s feeling good about his game, Moore can once again thrive at one of his chosen layouts.

Corey Conners – 66/1 – There are just some players who you believe have the class to outperform what their current formline suggests, and for us Corey Conners can be added to that category.

The Canadian missed the cut in Jackson last week, but in a putting shootout he is never likely to thrive, so we’re not overly concerned.

Instead, the young buck comes on the radar where exceptional ball-striking is concerned; quite simply, that is his modus operandi.

The Texas Open champion is sublime from tee-to-green, and he should enjoy the assignment presented by Silverado this week.

So ignore that recent formline, and instead focus on the undoubted talent that the world number 74 possesses.

Harold Varner III – 70/1 – It’s a bold statement but we believe that Harold Varner III will win this season on the PGA TOUR, and naturally on a course that suits his game we have to get him on board.

He is an inconsistent sort that can let you down when you least expect it, but at his best HVIII can flush his irons with the best of them.

The Ohio native heads into this campaign on the back of his best PGA TOUR season to date, and that shows a growing maturity and comfort at the coal face of elite golf.

He found himself in the final pair of the PGA Championship and finished T3 at the Northern Trust, and so his ‘big game’ credentials are improving.

Harry plays well at Silverado and a burst of wind won’t trouble a former Australian PGA Championship winner.

Bronson Burgoon – 80/1 – One strategy we like to deploy in our sleepers is backing those players who ended the previous week’s event in fine fashion.

And that’s why Bronson Burgoon finds his way onto our shortlist after a sublime closing round at the Country Club of Jackson.

On Sunday he ranked first for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and SG: Approach in what was a faultless effort of 65.

There’s no reason not to like this tremendous driver of a golf ball this week either, so let’s get him on board at a mouth-watering price.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the Safeway Open here.

Sleeper Report Predictions This Season (2019-2020)

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