Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – The Barclays

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for The Barclays

The Barclays 2016 Fantasy Sleeper Preview

Following an incredible week in North Carolina in which Si Woo Kim came away with his first career PGA TOUR victory at the ripe age of 21, the FedExCup playoffs at famous Bethpage Black in Farmingdale, New York gets underway.  The tough par-71, 7,468-yard course has twice been the host of the U.S. Open (2002, 2009) and last was the venue for this event, the Barclays, in 2012.  The fact that arguably the toughest major has been played here on multiple occasions proves it is going to be a tough test for the golfers who head out there this week, and when the U.S. Open was played here those two years, Tiger Woods and Lucas Glover came away with trophies and a score of three-under and four-under, respectively.

Over the last six seasons of this first round playoff match, Bethpage has proven to be the toughest as well, allowing Nick Watney to top the leaderboard with 10 shots under par while defeating runner-up Brandt Snedeker by three strokes.  In that timeframe, there have been a few other epic performances by some of the best golfers in the world, as the current top two in the Official World Golf Rankings, Jason Day (2015) and Dustin Johnson (2011), tied Bob Gilder (1982) and Johnny Miller (1974) with the lowest scores to par (-19) at this event in their respective victories.  Last season, Day did so in very impressive fashion at Plainfield Country Club; his 19-under score distanced himself from runner-up Henrik Stenson by a whopping six strokes, the largest margin of victory in this tourney since Ernie Els won by eight strokes back in 1996.  Day’s win came during one of the best stretches of golf in recent memory, as he was fresh off of his first major victory and has gone on to win again another four times since.

Both Day and Johnson will be teeing it up this week as they head the FedExCup rankings with a miniscule 34 points of separation.  For this outing, the Top 125 players from the standings will compete and look to make it into the Top 100, earning them an invite to next week’s Deutsche Bank Championship.  A trio of names from overseas will not be joining the party, as FedExCup ranked No. 20 Sergio Garcia, No. 87 Shane Lowry, and Masters Champion, No. 75 Danny Willett, are not in the field.  Within the 122 golfers who will be attending the event, six rookies, including No. 26 Smylie Kauffman and No. 32 Emiliano Grillo, will look to make their mark after winning early in the PGA TOUR season.  Of course, there will be some players out there looking to make a move from outside the Top 100 in order to play next week, including a few well known golfers in No. 105 Franceso Molinari, No. 106 Keegan Bradley, and No. 110 Boo Weekly.

The difficulty of this course and the depth of this field will make it difficult for sleepers to creep their way up to the top of the leaderboard, but each and every week, there are those who do just that despite lower expectations.  Below are a few names to watch out for as the FedExCup Playoffs get underway in New York this week.

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The Barclays 2016 Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The Barclays 2016 Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

Russell Knox – Vegas Odds 66/1 –  Knox comes into this week with these odds despite entering the playoffs with the fourth-most points behind two victories and two runner-up showings in 2016.  He looked to be falling off a little bit during June and July, making the cut in all five events during that stretch, but failing to do better than his 22^nd at the PGA Championship.  He righted the ship just a few weeks ago, though, as he won his second tournament of the year at the Travelers Championship.  There he shot 14-under thanks to 79.17% GIR and 0.723 Strokes Gained with his putter.  His Greens In Regulation have been stellar throughout the current campaign, ranking second in the category with a mark of 70.47% as he has also been extremely accurate off of the tee (68.46%, 11^th on TOUR).  As possibly the most accurate golfer this year and with a great ability to scramble (61.60%, 35^th on TOUR), Knox should be able to stay out of trouble at Bethpage Black and put up some nice rounds.

Kevin Na – Vegas Odds 66/1 –  Na may be having the best 2016 season of all players out there without a victory, making 20-of-23 cuts (87%) with eight Top 10’s and four finishes in the Top 3.  He comes into this week on the heels of four consecutive Top 22 performances, with his last two at the John Deere Classic and Wyndham Championship, going for eighth and 10^th respectively, combining for a score of 27-under-par.  Na has had no issues with the strong fields, raking in Top 25’s at each of the past three majors, including a seventh on the tough conditions of Oakmont at the U.S. Open in June.  The 32-year-old has made up 0.834 strokes on the field when approaching the green (3^rd on TOUR) thanks to a 34’1” proximity to hole (31^st on TOUR) and the ability to knock it close from the 125-150 yard distance (17’5”, best on TOUR).  Na always seems to be in the mix, and is certainly due to add a second career victory very soon.

Emiliano Grillo – Vegas Odds 80/1 –  The 23-year-old out of Argentina has had no issues acclimating himself to the life of a PGA TOUR player, and comes into this event in the 32^nd spot of the FedExCup standings and 37^th in the OWGR.  He has not lived up to the victory that kicked off the 2016 season, but has continued to be a consistent performer from week to week, and since the win, has gone 17-for-20 (85%) at making it to the weekend with eight Top 25’s.  Four of his last five times out have resulted in a Top 15 performance, including a 12^th at the Open Championship, 13^th at the PGA Championship, and eighth in the Rio Olympics.  At such a young age, he already shows the poise of a player who will rack up the trophies throughout his career, and thanks to an accurate driver (67.40%, 18^th on TOUR), solid GIR (68.17%, 39^th on TOUR), and Proximity To Hole (34’10”, 54^th on TOUR), he should be able to continue his recent success in New York.

Patrick Rodgers – Vegas Odds 125/1 – Rodgers’ first full season as a PGA TOUR professional has been very up-and-down.  He does not have the greatest Made Cut Percentage (16-for-26, 62%) and has played in just two tournaments with top fields, failing to make it to the weekend at the PLAYERS and getting a tie for 46^th at the U.S. Open, but has shown promise with eight Top 25’s.  His best outing came earlier this month at the Travelers Championship, where he tallied four consecutive rounds of 68 or better and walked away with a tie for third.  Overall this season, Rodgers has not been one of the better putters, losing 0.196 Strokes to the Field (147^th on TOUR), but has turned things around over his last two outings, with marks of 1.237 and 1.314 Strokes Gained with his flat iron.  If that trend continues to go along with his big driver (301.2 yards per, 23^rd on TOUR) and accurate approaches (69.76% GIR, 11^th on TOUR), we could see a big week from the 24-year-old who is likely being overlooked by most.

Adam Hadwin  – Vegas Odds 200/1 – Hadwin has been on our radar plenty this season as someone who may never be elite, but will consistently make cuts as he improves as a player.  He sits comfortably in the Top 100 of the FedExCup standings thanks to 18-of-25 cuts made (72%) and six Top 25’s, three of which have came in his past seven events.  Over his last two outings, the Canadian-born golfer has shot a 69 or better in 7-of-8 rounds and has hit 75% GIR or better in each event.  Hadwin has not had the opportunity to play against such a difficult field often, earning a 39^th at the PLAYERS Championship while not attending any of the majors, but is one of the best putters out there (0.543 strokes gained putting, 15^th on TOUR) and dominates par threes with a 3.01 average (18^th on TOUR).  There is little chance that this 28-year-old comes away with a victory this week, but it would be no surprise to see him be in the Top 20 on Sunday.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for The Barclays here.

Cover photo via Instagram