Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – The PGA Championship

2018 PGA Championship Fantasy Sleeper Report

The leaderboard at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational last week gave us a small hint that the fourth and final major of the calendar year, the PGA Championship, could well be a show for the ages.

You had the winner, Justin Thomas, collecting his seventh title in little over 18 months, with Rory McIlroy and Ian Poulter tied in second at the 54-hole stage.

In the end, the likes of Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Patrick Canlay, Tony Finau and Jason Day rounded out the top-10, which suggests that some rather big hitters are just finding some form ahead of our final ‘big one’ of the year.

This will be the 100th edition of the PGA Championship, which brings with it plenty of prestige, and the last before it heads into a May timeslot as of 2019 to give it more prominence in the schedule.

There’s a decent stack of FedExCup points to play for, and not to mention a winner’s check just shy of $2 million, so there’s plenty for all in the field to aim for.

Phil Mickelson acknowledges the gallery on the 16th hole during the…

Phil Mickelson acknowledges the gallery on the 16th hole during the second round of the World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone Country Club on August 3, 2018 in Akron, Ohio. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

And what a field it is. Some 98 of the world’s top 100 will tee up at Bellerive Country Club, alongside some former champions that include Rich Beem, John Daly and Davis Love III.

Bellerive is a course that we haven’t seen a huge amount of in the past. It hosted the US Open in 1965, when Gary Player downed Kel Nagle in a playoff, and in 1992 hosted the PGA Championship, which Nick Price won with a score of -6.

It has hosted two senior majors since, with the US Open in 2004 followed by the PGA Championship in 2013, and it held the FedExCup event, the BMW Championship, in 2008, which was won by Camilo Villegas.

So what have we learned about it? Not all that much, in truth, but we do know that it is a classic Robert Trent-Jones design that has since been given some TLC by his son, the ‘Open doctor’ Rees Jones. The players can expect a terrific challenge from tee to pin, then.

It will play at around 7,300 yards for its Par 70, with some rather hefty Par 4s backed by a couple of Par 5s in the realm of 600+ yards.

As if that was challenging enough, the rough is said to be up and the greens have been re-modelled to feature challenging new contours; Augusta is said to have been the inspiration, so you can expect plenty of tiers and shelves to bamboozle the field. As such, pinpoint approach play will be required to find the right section of these Bentgrass greens.

It’s a fitting challenge for the final major of the year, and if nothing else it should provide a fascinating spectacle. But which sleepers do we expect to be up for the challenge?

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The PGA Championship Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The PGA Championship Fantasy Sleeper Report

Patrick Cantlay – Vegas Odds 50/1 – The youngster is undoubtedly one of the best ball-strikers around; a quality that Rees Jones himself has hinted could be crucial this week.

The Californian ticks a big box this week then, and you suspect his all-round game – and his confident demeanor – will one day help him to a major victory or two.

A perennial green pounder, Cantlay is in prime form to match: landing four top-15 finishes in his last five starts. Arguably the pick of those have come in his last two appearances at the British Open (T12) and the WGC-Bridgestone (T6), so it feels as though the 26-year-old is rounding up to something rather exciting.

Hideki Matsuyama – Vegas Odds 60/1 – Like last week, the bookies are completely writing off the chances of the Japanese ace; a bold move given that he has won 14 times worldwide.

Two of those victories have come in WGC events, so Matsuyama doesn’t fear playing on the big stage, and eye-catchingly more than a quarter of his major appearances have yielded a top-10 finish (7 of 24).

A three-time winner on tour in 2017, Matusyama has been out of touch this year but still banked top-20s in two of his three major appearances, and at last week’s WGC-Bridgestone he gained strokes on the field from tee-to-green; typically a good sign for this Asian superstar.

Phil Mickelson – Vegas Odds 80/1 – It’s not been a good few weeks for Phil Mickelson from a PR perspective.

First, there was the moving ball controversy at the US Open where he took plenty of heat, and then the rumors of his $10 million head-to-head match with Tiger Woods emerged. ‘Don’t you know there’s starving kids in the world!’, decried the morally outraged on social media (as usual).

So the release of that viral video promoting his new clothing line, where old Leftie shows some questionable Saturday Night Fever style dance moves, came at just the right time, and perhaps will get some good vibes back on his side.

His game certainly seemed to pick up at Firestone, where he gained +1.02 strokes on approach, and as we’ve often mentioned it pays sense to have players on board at majors that have been there, done it and got the tee shirt.

Indeed, now Phil is even selling the t-shirt…

Kevin Chappell – Vegas Odds 100/1 – The WGC-Bridgestone served up peak Kevin Chappell: as well as gaining an impressive +1.67 strokes from tee-to-green and +1.53 on approach, he also contrived to lose -2.02 with the putter.

It’s a regular issue for his followers, but if you can take the positives than once again Chappell showed how classy a ball striker he is.

Prior to that he was contending at the British Open, so really Chappell is in the kind of form where he could get the job done at a major – if only that darn putter would heat up a little.

Gary Woodland – Vegas Odds 125/1 – Ball striking is both a tangible stat (total driving + GIR) and a sort of eye test as to how well a player is performing, and right now Gary Woodland ticks the box on both fronts.

He ranks first on the PGA TOUR for the official Ball Striking stat, and his T17 finish at the WGC-Bridgestone delivered some outstanding tee-to-green figures once more.

That followed a T22 at the Canadian Open, and while the putter remains cold by all accounts he is at least trending in the right direction.

At 125/1, punters are getting one of the best ball-strikers on the planet – that’s worthy of a punt, right?

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for PGA Championship here.

Sleeper Report Predictions This Season (2017-2018)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”1.62%” bar_text=”3 out of 185 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”9.73%” bar_text=”18 out of 185 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”27.57%” bar_text=”51 out of 185 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”2.70%” bar_text=”1 out of 37 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”2.70%” bar_text=”1 out of 37 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”64.32″ bar_text=”119 out of 185 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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