GOLFICITY BETS: The 2020 3M Open Gambling Guide

3M Open Tournament Preview

From the sublime to the….well, less sublime.

A major-quality field did battle at the Memorial Tournament last week in major-like conditions at Muirfield Village, and the resulting spectacle really was a sight to behold. In the end, Jon Rahm gutsed out the win to climb up to number one in the OWGR.

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This week, it’s a non major-quality field in non major-like conditions.

Don’t get it wrong, there are quality operators teeing up. Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Tony Finau and Tommy Fleetwood would attract interest if they were playing at their local pitch and putt course.

It’s just that the host venue of the 3M Open – TPC Twin Cities – is flat, straight and character-less, and the emphasis is on making birdies.

We’re a whole world away from the antics of Muirfield Village…

3M Open Course Preview

A former host on the Champions Tour, TPC Twin Cities has been taken apart by the old boys in the past!

Paul Goydos and Kenny Perry have both posted rounds of 60 here, and last year there were seven scores of 63 or better. In the words of tournament director Hollis Cavner, he’s looking for ‘birdies and train wrecks’ and has no qualms about being the easiest course on Tour.

There are no real defenses to protect from being overpowered – this is trademark Arnold Palmer design work. There are a number of water hazards and creeks but these aren’t really a feature, and the large green complexes give even the most errant of iron players a chance to catch some GIR.

There was some renovation work carried out in 2010, and this added some sand and lengthened some holes. But even so, 7,431 yards with fairways that are running out is not enough to tame the scoring.

The three Par 5s touch 600 yards, and so even the longest of hitters will be laying up and giving themselves a short wedge into the pin. On the flipside, at least two of the Par 4s are drivable for players capable of hitting it 320 yards off the peg, so driving distance and general length is still the key consideration at TPC Twin Cities.

3M Open Outright Winner

Some bettors like to avoid players who have suffered heartbreak the week before, but it really does depend on the individual in question.

And in Tony Finau’s case, you suspect the jovial sort might be the kind that bounces back.

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He’s experienced plenty of disappointment in his young career – much of it his own making when in contention, but it seems almost a certainty that Finau will win a ‘proper’ PGA TOUR title soon to shake off his Puerto Rico Open champion’s hoodoo.

3M Open Top 5 Finish Pick

Anyone who finished inside the top-25 at the Memorial has to be on the radar in this lower-quality field.

That select group were able to grind out a score, and so as long as they can turn the afterburners on here and make some birdies they stand a great chance. Of the bunch, Erik van Rooyen is an interesting choice for somebody who can go very close.

The South Africa battled his way to a decent score at Muirfield, and that was based largely on a huge gain of +2.02 strokes on approach.

A big hitter, Van Rooyen is comfortable in the wind and delivered a much-improved putting performance last time out, and so all of the signs point towards a strong showing this week too from a former University of Minnesota student.

3M Open Top 10 Finish Pick

There’s a lot to like about Sepp Straka’s chances this week.

Here’s a guy who ranks inside the Tour’s top 75 for both Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and SG: Approach, and that really is premium ball striking in amongst such outstanding company.

Crucially, the Austrian has been putting well of late, and as ever if he can put all the ingredients of his game together he can surely go well at TPC Twin Cities.

A long hitter who can take apart Par 5s, Straka is certainly trending towards a maiden PGA TOUR title.

3M Open Top 20 Finish Pick

Players like Luke List are perennially on the radar. A quality ball striker, all your looking for is an improvement with the putter to see their game improve exponentially.

For List, the flat stick has been trending upwards ever since he won the Korn Ferry Challenge – it may be a second-tier event, but you don’t win anywhere unless you make your putts.

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He gained strokes on the greens at Muirfield Village last week too, finishing T10 in those treacherous conditions, and so the big hitter is doing everything right at the moment.

3M Open Match-up to Watch

Those seeking a value match-up play will surely want to dip their toes in Tony Finau’s water once more.

The reason for that is simple – there are three possible matchups available depending on your sportsbook, and Finau is a decent shout in all of them.

There’s Dustin Johnson, whose +16 score at Muirfield last week was compounded by strokes lost in all departments, and there’s Tommy Fleetwood – making his first competitive start since the PLAYERS Championship.

And you also have Brooks Koepka too. His best finish of T62 since the resumption of golf – backed by a 65th place finish here 12 months ago – hardly sets the pulse racing.

Who to Fade this Week

There’s not much to get excited about for Brooks Koepka fans right now.

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He may be a heavyweight in the majors, but 62-MC since the Tour’s return suggests he is still to find any consistency in the nitty-gritty of week-to-week golf.

Koepka finished 65th here last year too, so he’s not exactly screaming ‘bet me now’, is it?

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