Fantasy Golf Predictions – 2013 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am

Fantasy Golf Predictions for the 2013 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am Feb 7 – Feb 10, 2013

The Course:  The infamous and picturesque Pebble Beach Golf Links in California is the home of this annual shootout.  The cliff side track measures 6,816 yards and plays as a par 72.  With waves crashing in from Carmel Bay on one side and views of the Del Monte Forest on the other, this legendary course has been a key PGA TOUR stop since 1947.  It wasn’t until 1972 that the U.S. Open became its first professional major with four more Opens to follow, along with the 1977 PGA Championship.  Other courses on the grounds at Pebble Beach such as Spyglass Hill GC (6,953/72) and Monterey Peninsula Country Club (6,838/70) also are used for the first three days of this pro-am competition.

Photo by Gary Denham

The Weather in Monterey, CA (From Weather.com):

• Round 1: Thursday (Feb 7) 53 degrees, 10% chance of rain, mostly sunny
• Round 2: Friday (Feb 8) 52 degrees, 20% chance of rain, partly cloudy
• Round 3: Saturday (Feb 9) 54 degrees,   0% chance of rain, sunny
• Round 4: Sunday (Feb 10) 58 degrees,   0% chance of rain, sunny

Notes:  This week there is a Pro-Am prior to the event with celebrities including Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Bill Murray and many more that will be playing alongside the pros.

Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win:

• Phil Mickelson (Golficity Odds: 7/1): We’re going to ride the hot Phil train into Monterey from Phoenix this week.  Although looking lost at Torrey Pines two weeks prior, Phil’s emergency session with Butch Harmon helped him dominate Scottsdale.  As a four-time champ and all-time money leader at this event (not to mention co-owner of the course at Spyglass Hill where he shot a 62 in 2005) this is definitely Phil’s track.  His GIR last week at Scottsdale was incredible and we certainly think he can carry that momentum into this event.
• Brandt Snedeker (Golficity Odds: 12/1):  Brandt’s level of play over the past few months continues to amaze golf fans.  Runner up in the last two events, this guy is fighting hard to defend his FedEx Cup title.  Snedeker hasn’t won yet in 2013, but he leads in FedEx Cup points this year…that should tell you something.  He hasn’t finished better than T21 (2010) at Pebble Beach, but to us, this doesn’t mean much – he seems to be a different player in the last 12-15 months.  Brandt’s putting is still amazing and his approach game has spot on.  Don’t forget that he almost caught Mickelson at Scottsdale last week before Phil made a putt through the fringe and down a hill that you and I would have 6 putted.
• Dustin Johnson (Golficity Odds: 15/1):   Although DJ is ranked higher then Brandt on almost all the Vegas lines, we have to be realistic here. Johnson is very efficient at Pebble Beach and has a great record with two wins (2009, 2010) and another three top 10s in six career starts, including the 2010 U.S. Open where he finished (T8), but we just don’t see him outplaying the hot Snedeker right now.  However, we do like DJ enough to put him in our Top 5 Picks to Win and we’re giving him some solid odds.  Keep in mind also that DJ dominated at Kapalua in January, on a course that somewhat mimics Pebble Beach – although it may be a lot colder in California.
• Padraig Harrington (Golficity Odds: 20/1):  Harrington played well in Arizona last week finishing T9 and being in the hunt for most of the tournament before “the Lefty” ran away with it.  Padraig has 3 top-20’s in his last 5 trips to the AT&T National at Pebble Beach including a (T7) last year. He seems to be stepping back into the spotlight on TOUR and we think Padraig could have a big year.
• Lee Westwood (Golficity Odds: 30/1):  We were a bit torn between Westwood or Tim Clark this week for the 5^th spot of Top Picks.   Westwood played really well in his last event, finishing T5 at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic (-16).  Lee recently parted ways with long time caddie Billy Foster and is looking to make a statement as he steps foot on US soil for his first PGA TOUR event of 2013.  The 8th World Ranked Westwood, loves playing at Pebble Beach and although the air is different in California then it was in the desert last week, we see Lee making a statement in this one.

Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win:

• Hunter Mahan (Golficity Odds: 50/1):  Although he didn’t look good at Kapalua where he finished T26 in a field of 30 players, Hunter knows Pebble Beach pretty well, posting 4 top-20s there in his last 7 appearances.  He finished with a solo 2^nd here in 2011 and he is coming off a pair of top-20s in the last two weeks.  He may be heating up…
• David Lingmerth (Golficity Odds: 75/1): We like David as a long shot this week for his outstanding play so far in 2013.  Finishing P2 (playoff 2^nd) at the Humana Challenge and T31 at the Sony Open, David has begun to make a name for himself on TOUR thus far.  Lingmerth ranks 12^th on the FedEx Cup standings and is young and eager to move up in the list.

Last Week’s Predictions Results (Waste Management Phoenix Open):

• Jason Dufner (Golficity Odds: 14/1):  MC (-3)
• Brandt Snedeker (Golficity Odds: 14/1):  T2 (-24)
• Nick Watney (Golficity Odds: 16/1):   T43 (-10)
• Charles Howell III (Golficity Odds: 22/1): T36 (-11)
• Rickie Fowler (Golficity Odds: 25/1):  MC (-3)

Last Week’s Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win:

• Brian Gay (Golficity Odds: 50/1):  T24 (-13)
• Martin Kaymer (Golficity Odds: 50/1):  MC (E)

Golficity’s 2013 “Top 5 Picks” Winners: 1 for 2