Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 Farmers Insurance Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open  

Farmers Insurance Open Fantasy Preview

The winner of last week’s American Express was Jon Rahm, who collected his fourth title in his last seven starts worldwide in a staggeringly-good run of form.

But in time, the real winner may prove to be Davis Thompson, the PGA TOUR rookie making just his seventh start at golf’s top table.

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The 23-year-old opened with a round of 62, and defied the expectations of those who expected him to drift away from the top of the leaderboard by hanging tough, making birdies and keeping himself in contention on Sunday.

Indeed, had a putt not hit the flag and been rejected on the 71st hole, maybe he could have forced a playoff….and then who knows what might have happened?

As it was, destiny was not on Thompson’s side, and ultimately it was the birdie Rahm made at the sixteenth hole on Sunday that would separate one of the modern greats from a young gun who could yet go on to emulate him. Although that’s still a long way off, of course….

Rahm would break all sorts of records if he could win the Farmers Insurance Open this week. And, spoiler alert, it’s played at a venue he has prevailed at before….

IMPORTANT: The Farmers Insurance Open is played Wednesday-Saturday so as not to clash with the NFL playoff games. Don’t get caught out!

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Last week our best finisher was JT Poston with his T6 finish, and unfortunately our Top Pick, Sungae Im, fell short to T18 to round out the week.

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Farmers Insurance Open Field

You’ll do well to find a player who loves life as much as Rahm does at Torrey Pines. He’s twice won here – this event in 2017 and the U.S. Open in 2021 – and so the Spaniard will be parlaying some serious confidence this week.

Xander Schauffele and Will Zalatoris have both finished second and seventh at this venue, so they have been knocking on the door, while newly-married Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa complete the five players ranked inside the top-10 in the world to tee it up this week.

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Luke List beat Zalatoris in a playoff in this tournament 12 months ago, and he will be joined in the field by other former winners that include Jason Day, Justin Rose and Scott Stallings.

Others, like Sungjae Im, Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama and Max Homa, will be looking to get back into the winner’s circle early on in 2023. This looks to be an ideal venue for all of them….

This Week’s Course Preview

After the three-course rotation at The American Express last week, it’s down to just two for the Farmers Insurance Open.

Both are found at the Torrey Pines complex, with the North Course on hosting duties for one of the opening two rounds and the remaining 54 holes played on the South Course.

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Let’s quickly preview the North Course, as it’s not here that the tournament will be won or lost. It’s a fairly generic Par 72 at 7,258 yards, and this layout is markedly easier than the South. Bizarrely, the greens are laid to Bentgrass, rather than the Poa Annua surfaces at the sister venue.

But it’s really all about the South Course, one of the most iconic venues in golf with those staggering clifftop views across the Pacific Ocean.

Exposed to the elements, Torrey Pines South has that resort, almost Links-style feel to it, and at 7,765 yards for its Par 72 this also happens to be one of the longest stretches on the PGA TOUR. When the wind blows in unhelpful directions, this truly is a tough old piece of golfing real estate – hence why it has been chosen as a U.S. Open host previously.

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Although the rough is fairly amenable, there are some tight fairways and small greens on the South Course, so only those that hit the ball long and straight – or have a masterful recovery game – need apply this week.

Weather Forecast for San Diego, CA

Cool blustery winds are not exactly the lifeblood of golf, but unfortunately for the players that’s what’s on the cards this week.

Those with a 7am tee time on Wednesday will be met with temperatures of around 42˚F – enjoys those guys, before the mercury gets up to around 62˚F, with winds in the region of 8mph.

But those who look out for a draw bias will be intrigued by the predictions for Thursday, where the wind could hit 15mph and even stronger. At least it will be a little warmer.

Friday and Saturday look much the same, with sunny spells and temperatures in the region of 62˚F. Wind speeds of around 10mph are expected.

SAN DIEGO WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Farmers Insurance Open

In any given week, Luke List doesn’t seem to know one end of his putter from the other, but something clicked on the Poa Annua of Torrey Pines South and that powered him to a first PGA TOUR win in more than 200 attempts.

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He did it the hard way too, with a third round of 72 threatening to derail his chances completely. But List regrouped on Sunday, firing a 66 – featuring six birdies, one of which was clutch on the final hole – to force a playoff with Will Zalatoris.

Zalatoris had looked to be favorite to win at one point, but his inability to make a single birdie on the back nine on Sunday – burning an eight-foot birdie try on the final hole – ultimately led him into extra time against List.

Both found the bunker on the first extra hole, but List almost holed out from 131-yards with his approach, before tapping in to confirm one of the most extraordinary victories of 2022.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Farmers Insurance Open this Week

This is more like it! The American Express is a bit of a wasteland for daily fantasy gaming, but the Farmers Insurance Open is much more to our liking with its clear profile of successful players. As such, let’s look to take full advantage:

• PGA $600k Pitch and Putt: Although this contest had an $800k prize pool 12 months ago, there’s still a sizable kitty up for grabs that will pay a $200k jackpot to the winner. Needless to say, there’s plenty of other great payouts available too.

• PGA $200k Drive the Green: If a $20 contest is a bit too expensive, how about this $5 a turn game that still pays a huge $25k to the champion? Multi-entry will help you to get plenty of tanks on the lawn.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

The history books prove that you have to be a classy all-round player to win at Torrey Pines.

Rahm, Patrick Reed, Marc Leishman, Justin Rose, Jason Day – the list of champions in this event is impressive, and notable that all have won a major or at least had a chance of doing so. Even List, on his day, is a premier ball-striker.

There’s different ways of taking care of business, mind you. List, Rahm and Leishman all struck the ball beautifully in their title wins, making putts at crucial times, while Reed relied almost exclusively on his powers of recovery and short game to prevail in 2021.

But at 7,765 yards, it won’t surprise you to learn that power is key at Torrey Pines South, and last year only two of the top-10 on the leaderboard averaged less than 300 yards off the tee. Notably, six of that group were hitting it 306 yards plus.

Feeding into that is the average approach distances, with Torrey Pines South requiring accuracy from 225+ yards more than most other PGA TOUR courses – Augusta, Innisbrook (Valspar Championship), TPC San Antonio (Texas Open) and Memorial Park (Houston Open) some of the others that share that attribute. 

Quality ball-striking is the order of the day then, although your picks will need to be comfortable chipping as well because hitting long-range approaches into small greens generally leads to misses – especially when the wind is up. 

Remember too that we’re on Poa Annua greens this week, which are loved by some but detested by others on account of their bumpiness.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Farmers Insurance Open   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Farmers Insurance Open  

Top Tier Pick #1

Collin Morikawa (Odds: 14/1, FPPG: 85.8, GPGP: 68.60 Salary: $10,000)

We would be hard-pressed to put you off drafting Rahm this week, given his incredible form and mighty record at Torrey Pines. He seems hungry for that world number one spot, too.

But as mentioned, there’s stock in having multiple classy operators in your lineup this week given the nature of Torrey Pines, and savings made on Rahm can be reinvested elsewhere.

It will depend on whether you are a glass half-full or half-empty type as to how you construe Collin Morikawa’s meltdown at the Tournament of Champions, but if we look on the positive side we can say he must have been playing very well to open up a seven-shot lead in the first place.

That is evidenced by his stats – eye-catching was his putting improvement in particular, and he does have plenty of previous on Poa Annua. 

T4 in the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines in 2021, this is also a venue that Morikawa clearly favors.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 18th
• SG: Approach – 19th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 21st

Top Tier Pick #2

Max Homa (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 99.0, GPGP: 93.06 Salary: $9,100)

We can score a bargain this week in the shape of $9,100 pick Max Homa.

One of the best and most reliable performers on Poa around, the Californian – spot the link there – continues to reserve his best golf for the surface.

T3 at the Tournament of Champions, Homa also has a win at the Fortinet Championship in his rear view mirror. Really, the only reason he’s $9,100 is a poor record at Torrey Pines, but finishes of T9 and T18 in amongst the missed cuts hint at what might be possible.

Homa is ready to join the PGA TOUR’s elite, in our opinion, and this is an excellent proving ground for him.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 6th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 21st
• SG: Putting – 34th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Maverick McNealy (Odds: 45/1, FPPG: 77.9, GPGP: 62.29 Salary: $8,600)

If he is to achieve his potential, you suspect that Maverick McNealy will just need to improve his ball-striking by a fraction in order to start challenging for trophies.

He’s a top-tier putter already, especially on Poa Annua greens, and his prodigious length off the tee means he’s just a short iron and wedge game away from winning titles.

Only time will tell if McNealy can find that extra gear, but for now he’s one of those strange creatures that approaches better from the rough than he does the fairway – that’s a recipe that has worked for the likes of List and Leishman here in recent times.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 2nd
• SG: Putting – 3rd
• Driving Distance – 38th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Hayden Buckley (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 86.0, GPGP: 68.80 Salary: $8,000)

Across the entirety of last season, Hayden Buckley ranked 13th on TOUR for SG: Off-the-Tee, and he’s already improved that to third this time around.

With that weapon in your armory, there’s always chances to be had when your iron and wedge game is on point, and Buckley was very much on song at the Sony Open when finishing solo second – Si-Woo Kim’s chip-in on the Sunday perhaps the difference maker.

It was Buckley’s second top-five in four PGA TOUR starts, and improvements on the greens and approaching them should fill him with confidence.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 3rd
• Scoring Average – 14th
• SG: Putting– 51st

Low-Tier Pick

Alex Smalley (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 73.6, GPGP: 58.85 Salary: $7,700)

Alex Smalley could prove to be one of the breakout stars of the 2022-23 season.

He also might not, of course, and therefore make us look a little silly, but we’re always ready to fight the corner of a quality ball-striker whose putting is trending in the right direction.

Smalley already sits 100 places higher in the SG: Putting rankings this season compared to last, and he’s reaping the rewards with T4, T5 and T11 finishes within his last five PGA TOUR outings. 

Nobody hit their approach shots better over two measured rounds at PGA West last week, so he heads to Torrey Pines in high spirits.

Key Stats:

• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 40th
• Greens in Regulation – 44th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 50th

Sleeper Pick for the Farmers Insurance Open

Kevin Yu (Odds: 250/1, FPPG: 72.4, GPGP: 57.95 Salary: $6,900)

A missed cut at the American Express doesn’t have to be considered a disaster – especially when you gain +2.18 strokes on the field in your sole measured round at PGA West.

Kevin Yu has been crushing his tee shots so far this season and ranks inside the Tour top-30 for GIR, so the reason he hasn’t featured more prominently on leaderboard is his difficulties with the flat stick.

Perhaps the switch to Poa will prove a charm, because weak putters tend to prefer slower surfaces – they’re not as fearful of their ball running away from them. An Arizona native, Yu will have practiced plenty of times on Poa too.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 2nd
• Greens in Regulation – 26th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 44th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Farmers Insurance Open

Harry Higgs (Odds: 275/1, FPPG: 47.9, GPGP: 38.28 Salary: $6,900)

You never quite know what you’re gonna get from Harry Higgs.

He fired a round of 62 at Mayakoba, finished T21 at the RSM Classic after opening up 63-67 and ended up T18 at the American Express, again with a round of 62 to his name.

So in amongst the missed cuts, Higgs is doing plenty right, and a Birdie Average rank of 23rd this season reveals the nature of his feast-and-famine performances.

With a previous top-10 to his name at Torrey Pines, perhaps this will be one of Higgs’ stronger weeks….

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 23rd
• SG: Putting – 42nd
• Driving Distance – 75th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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