Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2024 Wells Fargo Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship  

Wells Fargo Championship Fantasy Preview

The ending of the inaugural CJ CUP Byron Nelson was proof that you don’t need elite players going at it for an event to end in a blockbuster finish.

Taylor Pendrith and Ben Kohles have hardly been flush with success on the PGA TOUR in recent times, but they found themselves going toe-to-toe down the back nine on Sunday at TPC Craig Ranch.

They exchanged the birdies – and the lead – multiple times, before it all came to pass on the 72nd hole.

Kohles enjoyed a one-shot lead heading into the final hole – an easy Par 5 at which birdie had been a formality for many in the field.

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But Kohles was met with disaster – the pressure of closing out a PGA TOUR title proving too much to bear. He found bunker, rough, and still had a chance to force a playoff with a five-foot putt….he duly missed.

Pendrith, meanwhile, serenely posted a birdie to complete what was, at the start of the hole at least, an unlikely maiden PGA TOUR victory of his own.

The Canadian, and Kohles, will both take their place in the field for what is a blockbuster fortnight of golf. We have the PGA Championship next week, but first there’s the next Signature Event – the Wells Fargo Championship – which sits alongside an alternate tournament; the first hosting of the Myrtle Beach Classic.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Si Woo was our shining star as our top pick last week. 

He ended up with a solid T13 along with one of our best Sleeper Picks, Jake Knapp, who ended up in 8th along with our other Sleeper Pick Aaron Rai.

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2024 Wells Fargo Championship Field

As he awaits the birth of his child, the big news from the Wells Fargo field is that Scottie Scheffler will not play this week.

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The field includes include Rory McIlroy, the 2021 winner at Quail Hollow, and Wyndham Clark, our defending champion this week.

The classy field also includes former runner-up at the host venue, Xander Schauffele, debutant Ludvig Aberg, and Collin Morikawa, whose decision to reunite with former coach Rick Sessinghaus will ensure his form will be watched with interest.

Max Homa, Justin Thomas, and Jason Day are also amongst the former champions at Quail Hollow in the field this week, and they will be looking to find form and double-up ahead of the PGA Championship.

This Week’s Course Preview

A former host of the PGA Championship itself, the Quail Hollow Country Club is well revered within the world of golf.

Hosting that major in 2017 saw holes redesigned and the course lengthened – it now passes the 7,500 yard mark for its Par 71, which is a long old stretch when you consider that there’s only three Par 5s on the real estate.

Many of the holes have thick tree lines to shape tee shots around, while most of the greens are protected by a considerably-sized bunker or two.

Plenty will tell you that sand traps are barely a hazard these days at most PGA TOUR layouts, but the green complexes – Bermuda overseeded with Poa, fast, and some featuring undulations and different tiers – are a strong defense in themselves.

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The jewel in the crown of Quail Hollow is the three-hole closing stretch known as the ‘Green Mile’, with this trio of holes continuing to come up with the goods (or bads, if you’re a player) – 16 and 18 ranked as the toughest holes on the real estate last year.

The sixteenth is a mammoth 506-yard Par 4, on which the green is well protected by sand and water. There were 27 birdies and 127 bogeys or worse here in 2023, which describes the tale of the tape.

The seventeenth is a classic island green Par 3, and while tricky in theory, like the similar hole at TPC Sawgrass, it shouldn’t really test the best players all that much.

But the eighteenth….well, that’s a different story. The narrow fairway is protected by bunkers right and water left, while even finding the short grass leaves an uphill approach into a well-protected green. 

The toughest hole at Quail Hollow, the eighteen had a birdie to bogey (or worse) ratio of around 1:5 last year!

Weather Forecast for Charlotte, NC

The early forecast is suggesting a wild opening to the Wells Fargo Championship, before matters could settle down for the final 54 holes.

Thursday has scattered thunderstorms in the early predictions, with wind speeds of up to 15mph into the bargain.

Otherwise, things should settle down thereafter. Friday could see cloud and sunny spells with temperatures of around 73 degrees, and wind speeds of around 11mph.

In theory, there should be few problems at the weekend – wind speeds are set in the single digits, with sunny spells and temperatures again in that 73 degree region.

Last Year’s Results from the Wells Fargo Championship

Wyndham Clark’s ascent in world golf may have been franked by his win at the U.S. Open, but his journey ultimately began at the Wells Fargo Championship a matter of weeks beforehand.

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Clark ground out two rounds of 67 to enjoy a share of the 36-hole lead alongside Tyrrell Hatton, but it was a Saturday 63 – the best round of the day – that broke the back of the big hitter’s maiden PGA TOUR title.

Two clear of Xander Schauffele, and five ahead of the rest of the field, victory was in Clark’s hands – if he could handle the rigors of closing out a first win.

After an opening bogey, Clark settled the ship, made six consecutive pars, and then hopped on the birdie train – breaking par on five of his next eight holes to set up a comfortable four-shot victory over Schauffele.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s Wells Fargo Championship

It’s sometimes hard to know how to play these Signature Events, with a small (and high quality) field meeting in no cut conditions.

For us, the smart strategy remains single entry contests – those with big budgets are able to bully multi-entry contests with multiple lineup variations, covering a wider spread of the field.

Not so in single entry games….

• GOLF TOUR $40k Albatross – A sort of mid-price entry of $12 will get you a ticket into this game, which pays $1,000 to the winner. As importantly, a relatively small field of just under 4,000 players is battling it out for handy consolation prizes too.

• GOLF TOUR $30k Caddie – If you’re working with a tighter budget, this $5 game boasts a decent prize pool of $30k – the winner banks $3k of that, while those who finish in the top 20% or so also trouser a payout.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

The first seven players home at the Wells Fargo Championship last year averaged more than 311 yards off the tee – so it’s go long or go home at Quail Hollow.

Missing fairways isn’t the end of the world here with such forgiving rough, but the players will have to hit quality approaches into the Par 4 and 5 holes, as well as off the tee on the Par 3s – that 175-225 yardage bucket will again prove pivotal.

Plenty of high-class wedge players have also thrived at this layout before, while an unusually high GIR count for the field in 2023 slightly skews the normal trend at Quail Hollow for missed greens and the need for quality scrambling.

So it’s long and solid tee-to-green performers that generally thrive in this event, which brings to mind a number of correlating tournaments: the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Genesis Invitational, and The Masters amongst our favorite comps given the skillset required and the quality of players that meet there.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Wells Fargo Championship   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Wells Fargo Championship  

Top Tier Pick # 1  

Ludvig Aberg (Odds: 12/1, FPPG: 85.8, Salary: $10,300)

If you were to draw up a list of players most likely to win on the PGA TOUR right now, Ludvig Aberg would be somewhere towards the head of the list behind Scheffler.

Only Scottie could best his score at The Masters, while the Swede was front and center at the subsequent RBC Heritage – a closing round of 72 preventing him from gaining revenge on Scheffler next time out.

The Swede will have plenty of room to free his arms at Quail Hollow, and his elite approach play throughout the bag will set up stacks of birdie chances – a pre-requisite at this venue.

At this precise moment, you might argue that Aberg is the second best player on the PGA TOUR – therefore, he has to be our top-tier pick this week.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 10th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 12th
• SG: Approach – 19th

Top Tier Pick #2

Sahith Theegala (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 80.6, Salary: $9,100)

Regular readers will know we’re very much on board the Theegala train; a player with few weaknesses in what is developing into an elite all-round game.

He routinely gains strokes on the field with his ball-striking – he’s done so in his last five starts, which includes majors and Signature Events – and even when he doesn’t he’s rock solid on the greens.

Top-10s at the PLAYERS Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational were followed last time out by solo second at the RBC Heritage, where the only player to beat Theegala’s score was Scheffler. He’s very much on the brink of PGA TOUR win number two.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 8th
• SG: Off the Tee – 21st
• SG: Approach – 38th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Cameron Young (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 82.9, Salary: $8,800)

A nice price here for a player whose ball-striking is as good as anybody’s right now, barring Scheffler.

The problem for Cameron Young is evidenced by two simple stats: he ranks 13th on TOUR for Birdie or Better Percentage but 110th for Bogey Avoidance.

So mistakes are costing him that elusive PGA TOUR title, and the key for Young going forward will be to eliminate those wild drives and rash approach shots that bring down a player who is, otherwise, outstanding.

Quail Hollow is not overly penal, so can Young stay out of trouble and finally get his hands on a trophy?

Key Stats:

• Birdie or Better Percentage – 13th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 29th
• SG: Approach – 29th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Akshay Bhatia (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 72.3, Salary: $7,500)

It’s been a fantastic couple of months for Akshay Bhatia.

His ball-striking numbers have been outstanding, he’s gained strokes on the field putting in each of his last five starts, and he’s won the Texas Open and recorded a T35 on debut at The Masters since the start of April.

He’s young and hungry, though, so we don’t have to worry about him lacking motivation this week at a layout that should suit his long, straight hitting. Given his improvements on the green, Bhatia can take on the best in the world right now.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 6th
• Scoring Average – 11th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 34th

Low-Tier Pick

Sepp Straka (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 55.7, Salary: $7,300)

Sepp Straka has gained strokes on the field off the tee in each of his last seven starts in which he’s made the cut.

So when you factor in his elite approach play too, it’s clear that the Austrian has the basic tools to thrive at Quail Hollow, even if his form at the venue so far doesn’t suggest as much.

But Straka is a different animal entirely ahead of the Wells Fargo Championship this year. He won the John Deere Classic in the summer, finished second at the British Open, and was T16 at The Masters despite losing strokes on the greens.

Slowly but surely, Straka is heading towards golf’s top table.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 200-225 yards – 23rd
• Greens in Regulation – 36th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 38th

Sleeper Pick for the Wells Fargo Championship

Keegan Bradley (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 61.4, Salary: $6,900)

Keegan Bradley ended his time at The Masters in April like a train, becoming just one of a dozen or so players to card a round in the 60s on Sunday.

His game was in reasonable shape at the RBC Heritage thereafter, gaining +1.34 on the field on approach and counting the cost of an ice cold putter.

Generally speaking, Bradley is strong enough on the greens to win an event of this magnitude, so if he can put all the parts of his game together, he can have a fine time of it at Quail Hollow.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 22nd
• SG: Approach – 37th
• Total Driving – 44th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Wells Fargo Championship

Cam Davis (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 66.3, Salary: $6,400)

Cam Davis has delivered a series of eye-catching performances recently, and if he can put all the parts of his game together at once, a second PGA TOUR title is a possibility soon enough.

He gained +1.18 and +1.34 strokes on approach on the field at The Masters and Arnold Palmer Invitational respectively, which shows how well the Australian is striking the ball to best such high-quality company.

His putting has been positive enough this year to capitalize on his excellent tee-to-green game, with T12 in his penultimate start at The Masters the pinnacle of Davis’ 2024 to date. But is better yet to come?

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 28th
• Approaches from 200+ yards – 42nd
• Birdie Average – 51st

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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