Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – THE CJ Cup Byron Nelson

2024 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Fantasy Sleeper Report

The Zurich Classic of New Orleans is an event that has tended to throw up shock results and long odds winners over the years, and yet the 2024 edition saw arguably the most likely champions in the field get the W. Shane Lowry has been playing some high-class golf of late, albeit in low-key fashion, while Rory McIlroy is, well, he’s Rory – give him a sniff of winning anywhere other than Augusta, and he’ll take it.

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The duo saw off the unlikely pairing of Chad Ramey and Martin Trainer to win in Louisiana, before the pair – Rory, mostly, with Shane looking on mildly embarrassed – treated the crowd to a rendition of Journey’s ‘Don’t Stop Believing’. It was nice to see somebody else other than Scottie Scheffler getting a win, and the good news for golf bettors is that he’s not in the field for this week’s snappily-titled CJ CUP Byron Nelson.

This is simply a rebadged version of the former AT&T Byron Nelson, with the field heading to TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, as they have done for this event since 2021.

Tom Weiskopf was in generous mood when he designed this layout in 2004, with wide-open fairways and large greens giving everyone in the field a chance to putt their way to glory – typically, it’s taken a score of -23 or lower to win this event. That probably simplifies the challenge a tad too much – with a fierce wind blowing, the players will need to keep their tee shots tidy, while a smattering of long Par 3s – and just three Par 5s – requires the field to break par on Par 4s, so approach play in the 175+ yard region becomes imperative.

Otherwise, not a great deal to write about when it comes to TPC Craig Ranch. Water is in play on 13 holes and there’s more than 80 bunkers, but the cutline was -4 here 12 months ago, and that in itself reveals just how straightforward this layout is.

It’s a set-up that can lend itself to long odds winners, and TPC Craig Ranch has obliged in two of its three years of hosting the Byron Nelson – K.H. Lee winning in 2021 and 2022 at lines of 175/1 and 110/1 respectively. However, the defending champion is Jason Day, who was anything but an underdog when triumphing here 12 months ago. The Aussie took advantage of an uncharacteristically weak final round from Scheffler to win by one shot from Si-Woo Kim and Austin Eckroat.

The head of the betting market looks suitably weaker this time around, with Jordan Spieth leading the way from Day, Si-Woo, Will Zalatoris, and Sungjae Im. So could opportunity knock for another long odds winner at TPC Craig Ranch? Here’s five that might in our CJ CUP Byron Nelson sleeper shortlist.

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Adam Schenk – 50/1 – Although he’s not broken the top-30 at TPC Craig Ranch in three trips, Adam Schenk also hasn’t teed it up there in as good a form as he is right now. A mediocre start to the Florida Swing gave way to T19 at the PLAYERS before a pair of fine efforts back-to-back – T5 at the Texas Open, followed by T12 at The Masters. Schenk took his eye off the ball at RBC Heritage, as can be the case the week after a major, but continued his fine ball-striking form there – his driving in particular has been outstanding of late.

With some ‘popping’ performances with flat stick in hand, Schenk’s game is in rude health – the fact that he’s performed well at a number of correlating courses only serves to whet the appetite further.

Aaron Rai – 55/1 – Better performances with putter in hand offer the hope that Aaron Rai can kick on and land a maiden PGA TOUR title soon. He’s a supremely accurate driver – others like him have previously thrived at TPC Craig Ranch, while his approach play from 175+ yards is exemplary.

T7 at the Houston Open will bring back positive memories of the Lone Star State – even if he didn’t back them up at the Texas Open, while previous good showings at Colonial and other correlating courses suggest that Rai can take to TPC Craig Ranch too.

Davis Thompson – 60/1 – A player with season-long ranks of ninth for Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders, 42 for Par 3 Scoring Average, 52 for SG: Approach, and 61 for SG: Putting should thrive in a low-scoring Par 71 with a weak field.

Davis Thompson doesn’t always seem to get the memo of how talented he is, judging by his results, but the history books have tended to favor those who stay loyal to talented sorts who, eventually, figure out how to win golf tournaments.T18 at the Corales Puntacana, and T21 at the Houston Open, confirms that Thompson returns to Texas with plenty of confidence – ideal at a venue that should suit his natural game.

Mark Hubbard – 66/1 – Finishes of T32 and T34 at TPC Craig Ranch offer a solid platform upon which Mark Hubbard can build. He’ll have dreams of better himself after a case of what might have been lately – T25 at the Texas Open came despite losing strokes to the field on the greens.

With form at correlating venues like Colonial and PGA National, quality in the 175+ yard approach ranges, and plenty of previous on Bentgrass greens, don’t be surprised if Hubbard imposes himself towards the top of the leaderboard this week.

Jake Knapp – 100/1 – Although he isn’t playing quite as well as he was when he won the Mexico Open earlier this year, Jake Knapp is still playing some excellent golf right now. T55 on debut at The Masters was strong in itself, given the poor record that debutants have at Augusta National, but it’s top-fives at contrasting venues PGA National and Torrey Pines that show the versatility in Knapp’s game.

Outstanding off the tee and classy in the 175+ yard range, he boasts the skillset and the formline to continue building upon his fine rookie season.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson here.

Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2024)

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