Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2024 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson  

THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Fantasy Preview

Don’t stop believing, Rory McIlroy sang at the post-tournament karaoke at the Zurich Classic in a video that has since gone viral. And he and playing partner Shane Lowry never did stop believing – even as they faced an uphill battle to get back into contention after a slow start on Sunday.

Chad Ramey and Martin Trainer posted the clubhouse lead, and then all manner of pairs tried to match or better their score – including the unlikely duo of Zac Blair and Patrick Fishburn, who have missed more cuts in 2024 than an incompetent backstreet surgeon. In the end, McIlroy and Lowry were able to tie the score of Ramey and Trainer, and a playoff ensued – golf is a funny old game, but most kinda felt that the extra holes were only going to go one way.

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And they did: the Irish pair besting the score of Ramey and Trainer on the first extra hole to win the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. A fantastic Journey, you might say, if a fan of 1980s power ballads. We head into May with the carrot of the PGA Championship dangled at the end of the month, but first there’s some traditional PGA TOUR action to contend with.

Next week sees the Wells Fargo Championship return to the iconic Quail Hollow track in North Carolina, and after that we’ve got a brand-new PGA TOUR event to contend with: the Myrtle Beach Classic at, erm, Myrtle Beach. But first, it’s off to Texas for the event formerly known as the AT&T Byron Nelson – now updated with new branding to become known as the CJ CUP Byron Nelson, which doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Last week’s Rory pick as our horse is the absolute right choice. 

The Irish duo closed the door for the victory late Sunday and gave us another winning pick on the season!

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2024 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Field

Jordan Spieth returns to home soil looking for his third win in the Lone Star State – victories at the Charles Schwab Challenge and Texas Open mired by a loss in a playoff at the Houston Open. He’ll be looking to dethrone Jason Day, who won this event 12 months ago with a score of -23, while Tom Kim will be looking to build upon his recent uptick in fortunes.

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Adam Scott, Will Zalatoris, and Byeong Hun An are amongst some of the classier entries into the field, while the likes of Stephan Jaeger, Jake Knapp, and Brice Garnett will be looking to add a second PGA TOUR trophy to their collection in 2024. K.H. Lee will be looking for a unique slice of history: he won here in both 2021 and 2022.

This Week’s Course Preview

The Byron Nelson moved to TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney for the first time in 2021, and it has provided an easy test ever since with winning scores of -23, -25, and -26. Designed by Tom Weiskopf in 2004, TPC Craig Ranch is unexpectedly green and lush for Texas – this is a classic parklands, with some tree-lines but typically wide, luscious fairways.

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It’s a pretty long stretch, measuring 7,414 yards for its Par 71, which means that the players have only three Par 5s to work with. Four of the Par 4s play to 470 yards or longer, while three of the four Par 3s are in the 200+ yardage bucket. Although winning scores are low at TPC Craig Ranch, just 10 of its 18 holes averaged under par in 2023 – but some of these holes are so easy for the top pros that anything less than birdie could prove disastrous to hopes of lifting the trophy.

The trio of Par 5s are as easy as anything you’ll see on the PGA TOUR, while the sixth and fourteenth are – with the right wind – drivable Par 4s. But there is a creek that’s in play on 13 holes, with more than 80 bunkers too, so TPC Craig Ranch isn’t completely without obstacles. However, the generous Bentgrass greens are easy to find and hold, so making putts is very much the order of the day to get the job done at TPC Craig Ranch.

Weather Forecast for McKinney, TX

Over the past few days, McKinney has had both tornado and flood warnings in place. We’re happy to tell you that the CJ CUP Byron Nelson will be played in better conditions, but only just. A slightly more settled start to the week gives way to the possibility of rain and thunderstorms on Thursday, with wind speeds reaching 13mph.

The early forecast for Friday through Sunday is eerily similar – but not in a good way. Those heavy rain showers and thunderstorms are once again in the offing, although of course we won’t know when, or in what quantity, without access to the latest radars later in the week. The wind speeds look to be settled at around 13mph, with temperatures to reach around 77 degrees across all four days of action.

MCKINNEY WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

Jason Day shot an opening round of 64 here 12 months ago, and still only found himself in a share of T4 after 18 holes – Seung-Yul Noh threatening a round of 59 on Thursday, needing to eagle the Par 5 final hole to join that exclusive club. In the end, he had to settle for birdie.

By the halfway stage a scene we’ve become very accustomed to unfolded: Scottie Scheffler, with a pair of 64s, hitting the front. But this time, Scheffler wasn’t able to serenely canter to the title – his Saturday 71 was, in the context of the scoring at TPC Craig Ranch, a catastrophe. Ryan Palmer, Zecheng Dou, and Austin Eckroat found themselves sharing the 54-hole lead – an unlikely trio, by all accounts, and given the low-scoring it seemed likely that the winner would come from off the pace….Scheffler, Day, and Si-Woo Kim just two shots adrift. And it was Day who would prevail, taking TPC Craig Ranch apart on Sunday with nine birdies to win by a single stroke from Si-Woo and Eckroat.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

The CJ CUP Byron Nelson giveth with one hand and taketh with the other. It’s a weak field event, which means we can leverage our knowledge of the entire PGA TOUR roster of players better. On the other, this is an easy birdie-fest that generally rewards the best putters, so we’ll go small and large this week.

• GOLF TOUR $250K Drive the Green: Our ‘small’ contest takes the form of this $3 game, which promises $50k to the winner and a host of other handsome payouts – with multi entry, you can draft a few variations of your favored lineups.
• GOLF TOUR $700k Summer Sand Trap: Our larger entry is in this $25 game, which promises a handy $200k for the winner. There’s also numerous ways to more than double your money if your players perform.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

With wide-open landing areas off the tee at TPC Craig Ranch, you might think that this event is right there for the bombers.

But that hasn’t necessarily proven to be the case here, with strong winds favoring those able to flight their ball down and keep it in the fairway – Day, Eckroat, and Si-Woo are fairway finders, while K.H. Lee was above average on the PGA TOUR for Driving Accuracy while winning twice here. So long and straight is the order of the day at TPC Craig Ranch, while quality in the long iron and wood department will also be vital in setting up birdie chances – remember, the low winning scores here mean breaking par as often as possible is essential.

With a high GIR count expected, despite the wind, your drafted players will need a sure hand on Bentgrass greens – you generally don’t get to a score of -25 without making a few putts; as Scheffler found out to his cost 12 months ago. Although we’re in Texas this week, there’s only one correlating event in the Lone Star State that caught our eye – the Charles Schwab Challenge at the Colonial Country Club. Otherwise, we’re more minded to look to the Florida Swing for answers; PGA National, home of the Cognizant Classic, looks to be a strong fit.

And the Farmers Insurance Open, played many miles away in California, is a wind-affected layout that tests the prowess of players in that 175+ yardage bucket.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson  

Top Tier Pick # 1  

Si-Woo Kim (Odds: 18/1, FPPG: 81.1, Salary: $9,800)

One shot adrift of Jason Day at the top of the leaderboard 12 months ago, Si-Woo Kim took to TPC Craig Ranch rather nicely. This year, he heads back to Texas in outstanding form. Si-Woo has finished inside the top-30 in eight of his last nine PGA TOUR outings; a run which includes The Masters, T6 at the PLAYERS, and a couple of Signature Events. He’s gained strokes on the field ball-striking in all of them.

A proven performer on Bentgrass greens, the Korean has played well at all manner of correlating courses – including Torrey Pines and Muirfield Village, to name just two.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 11th
• Total Birdies – 11th
• SG: Approach – 29th

Top Tier Pick #2

Tom Hoge (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 81.6, Salary: $9,100)

Large green courses are perfect for Tom Hoge: he’s an elite approach player, whose putting has improved markedly in recent times. The main weakness of his game is around the green – that shouldn’t be too much of a problem this week, while his inaccurate driving should at least be mitigated by the generosity of TPC Craig Ranch’s fairways.

Hoge has racked up a stack of top-10s and 20s in recent times, including in events with much stronger fields than this, and this bona fide birdie machine – he ranks second on TOUR for Total Birdies this season – has the firepower to outscore the rest this week.

Key Stats:

• Total Birdies – 2nd
• SG: Approach – 2nd
• SG: Putting – 30th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Keith Mitchell (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 73.2, Salary: $8,800)

You won’t find many better drivers of the ball in world golf right now than Keith Mitchell, and that has historically been an excellent foundation for success at TPC Craig Ranch. He’s gained strokes on the field on approach in his last ten PGA TOUR outings too, so to say things are going well for Mitchell in the ball-striking department would be something of an understatement.

His weakness around the greens will be mitigated thanks to the size of the putting surfaces here, while he delivered his best putting performance in some time last time out at the Texas Open, and that should be aided by his past excellence on Bentgrass greens.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 6th
• SG: Approach – 11th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 32nd

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Seamus Power (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 60.4, Salary: $7,900)

Seamus Power was barely out of the top-10 all week long at the RBC Heritage, just falling away to T12 on the Sunday with a final round of 72.

You don’t need us to tell you that the field for that Signature Event was a lot classier than we’re getting for the CJ CUP Byron Nelson, and what’s more Power has three consecutive top-10 finishes to his name at TPC Craig Ranch, with a best of T9 in 2021. Whether Power takes any inspiration from the Irish victory at the Zurich Classic remains to be seen, but the way he’s playing right now he may not need any further inspiration anyway at a happy hunting ground.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 100+ Yards – 38th
• Fairway Proximity – 38th
• Total Birdies – 77th

Low-Tier Pick

Nate Lashley (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 52.3, Salary: $7,300)

An accurate type off the tee who thrives on approach from 175+ yards, Nate Lashley should enjoy himself at TPC Craig Ranch. And he has, historically, with a missed cut in 2021 followed by T17 and T23 respectively.

That’s solid form for a long odds outsider, as is the T21 (Houston Open) and T39 (Texas Open) combo he delivered on the Texas Swing recently, which themselves followed T13 at the high-grade PLAYERS Championship. Another who has played well at Torrey Pines, a track with some correlating characteristics to TPC Craig Ranch, the theory is that Lashley should fare well this week too.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 45th
• SG: Putting – 89th
• Birdie Average – 94th

Sleeper Pick for the THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

Alejandro Tosti (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 55.7, Salary: $7,100)

Although we’re taking a gamble in backing Alejandro Tosti, this is a guy who barely a month ago finished T2 at the Houston Open in Texas. His form since then has been inconsistent, but respect to the Argentine for T33 at the RBC Heritage – conditions that do not suit his big-hitting game.

He’ll need to tidy up off the tee at TPC Craig Ranch, but there’s obvious advantages for players at this layout that find length easy to come by, so why not take a chance on Tosti serving it up in Texas again at what is a bargain basement price?

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 5th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 30th
• Approaches from 200+ Yards – 72nd

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

Ben Martin (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 61.1, Salary: $7,000)

With a pair of top-10s to his name at the Texas Open, there’s something about the air in the Lone Star State that suits Ben Martin.Not only that, he’s performed well at Colonial and PGA National too, which is enough evidence to suggest he can thrive once more in Texas this week.

T26 at TPC Craig Ranch in his only visit so far, Martin’s accuracy off the tee and quality in the 175+ yard range should set him up nicely for his return this week – crucially, he’s also been putting up strong putting numbers of late too.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 16th
• Putts Per Round – 52nd
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 55th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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