Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2025 Sony Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2025 Sony Open

The 2025 Sony Open Fantasy Preview

Another year of The Sentry at Kapalua, another stack of records broken.

A couple of seasons after Cameron Smitch torched the Plantation Course, Hideki Matsuyama went one better on Sunday – posting a winning score of -35, which breaks the all-time lowest 72-hole score on the PGA TOUR.

It’s hard to know which of the Japanese ace’s achievements at The Sentry were most impressive. He posted or better a staggering 35 times – another PGA TOUR record, while making just two bogeys all tournament long.

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That was Matsuyama’s eleventh PGA TOUR win, and he becomes the latest member of the unique Sentry-Sony Open double winner’s club.

Which brings us nicely onto this week’s tournament. Yep, it’s time for second leg of the Hawaiian Swing, with the Waialae club once again on hosting duties for the Sony Open.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Last week’s top pick for us was Aberg, who finished T5. With a few others in the Top 15, it still wasn’t quite enough to beat out the Colin + Hideki one-two punch.

Sony Open Field

The overlay from The Sentry to the Sony Open is such that we have a stacked field taking to the tee at Waialae.

Hideki Matsuyama takes headline billing after winning on the island last week, and don’t forget that he’s a former Sony Open champion too. 

And if you check the leaderboard and see his surname twice, you’re not seeing double: Mao Matsuyama, who we don’t think is any relation, became the youngest Japan Amateur Championship winner last year at the age of 15. He’s in this field on a sponsor exemption.

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By our count, 35 of last week’s Sentry field will tee it up at Waialae. That includes six members of the world’s top 20 – Matsuyama, Keegan Bradley, Sahith Theegala, Robert MacIntyre, Billy Horschel, and Russell Henley.

Other Sentry participants with a notable record in the Sony Open include Byeong Hun An, the 2024 runner-up, Si-Woo Kim (the 2023 champion), and Chris Kirk, who finished in second place back in 2021.

The tournament will have more than a hint of poignancy, too. Grayson Murray won here in 2024, before tragically taking his own life in May. 

This Week’s Course Preview

After the wide-open spaces of the Plantation Course last week, it’s time for something altogether tighter and more fiddly.

Designed by Seth Raynor, the 18-hole stretch at the Waialae Country Club has hosted the Sony Open since 1965… and not a great deal has changed at the layout since.

Measuring 7,044 yards for its Par 70, Waialae is protected by tree-lined, narrow fairways, with some reasonably penal rough awaiting when the short grass is missed (which will be relatively often).

The Bermuda greens are on a small side too, and while there’s only three water hazards on the entire real estate, there is still a large number of bunkers to be avoided.

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There’s just two Par 5s to work with too, as well as an often stiff breeze, so the conditions at Waialae will be far more taxing than those displayed at Kapalua for The Sentry last week.

Mind you, this is still a jolly in the sun – it’s just that conditions dictate just how easy it is. For context, in a tough renewal in 2020, Cameron Smith won with a score of -11. Just two years later, Matsuyama bested the field with a tally of -23.

Murray plotted a familiar path to the title 12 months ago. He ranked first in the field for SG: Tee-to-Green and second for GIR, before putting well enough (+0.69, 30th in the field) to get the job done. He made just four bogeys all week long, too.

At that 2024 edition, there was perfect symmetry: nine holes averaged under par, and nine over. The two Par 5s and the drivable Par 4 at ten were the easiest, while a series od mid-range Par 4s are the hardest… not least the first hole, which saw 114 scores of bogey or worse last year compared to just 38 birdies.

Weather Forecast for Honolulu, HI

HONOLULU WEATHER

Last year, rain softened Waialae to the extent that the examination off the tee was made easier on softer ground.

This time around, it should be a drier and altogether warmer edition in Honolulu. Thursday and Friday are the most settled, with temperatures around 80 degrees and wind speeds in the region of 13mph.

It should remain similarly sunny and warm over the weekend, as per the early forecast, although note that the wind could hit a considerable 18mph and higher come Sunday.

Last Year’s Results from Sony Open

It wouldn’t be disrespectful to describe Grayson Murray as the underdog in the playoff with Keegan Bradley and Byeong Hun An at the 2024 Sony Open.

The trio found themselves locked on -17 after 54 holes, which took them to the extra holes – Bradley, a multiple-time winner on the PGA TOUR, and An, who arguably should have won more based upon his talent, were the most expected to prevail.

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But it was Murray, whose sole PGA TOUR title came at the Barbasol Championship seven years prior, who held his nerve, making birdie at the replayed eighteenth hole to claim victory.

He sat some seven shots behind first-round leader Cam Davis, but slowly worked his way up the leaderboard – aided by a round of 63 on Friday.

Murray and Bradley shared the 54-hole lead, before being unable to separate themselves on the Sunday… Bradley’s inability to make birdie at the easy final hole costing him the trophy.

An, meanwhile, propelled himself into contention with a final round of 64, but Murray was not to be denied.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s Sony Open

The Sony Open is a lovely event for DFS gaming. We’ve got a decent field at a venue that is easy to decipher and decode, which should – in theory – lend itself to some successful lineup building.

So here’s two contests to target…

• GOLF TOUR $150k Drive the Green: It’s the perennial favorite for low budget players, but at $5 per entry there’s so much upside to a contest with a top prize of $25k and a stack of other handsome payouts.

• GOLF TOUR $500k Pitch & Putt: So bullish can gamers be about the Sony Open, an entry or two into this $20 game can be recommended where budgets allow. The uptick? That jackpot of some $100k to the winner.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for Sony Open

Seven players have won both The Sentry and the Sony Open, while eight of the last eleven Sony Open champions had played in The Sentry the week before.

So you don’t need to look far for inspiration this week. It’s by no means a guarantee that a participant at Kapalua will win at Waialae come Sunday, but the numbers certainly stack up favorably in that direction.

With that starting point, we’re then looking for strong drivers of the golf ball. Accuracy tends to trump power at Waialae, with the likes of Si-Woo Kim, Kevin Na, Hayden Buckley, Russell Henley, and Chris Kirk – all winners or runners-up at the Sony Open – renowned for their fairway-finding capabilities. 

Accurate approach play from short and mid-range is also welcome, while the breezy weather forecast would once again suggest that chipping and scrambling will again be important factors at Waialae. 

Alongside the Sentry, a couple of historically correlating courses include Harbour Town (RBC Heritage), Colonial (Charles Schwab Challenge), and Bay Hill (Arnold Palmer Invitational), where windy conditions and similarly tight dimensions reign.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Sony Open   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Sony Open  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Keegan Bradley (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 66.2, Salary: $9,500)

There was a lot to like about Keegan Bradley’s return at The Sentry, one week shy of a return to a venue at which he really ought to have won at 12 months ago.

He ranked fourth for Fairway Proximity at Kapalua, which suggests his iron and wedge game is in fine order, and he also gained strokes on the field in every other major department.

So that’s all positive for a tee-to-green specialist, who boasts particular expertise in the all-important wedge range, who routinely plays well at Waialae, and who has previous at key correlating venues like Colonial and Bay Hill.

Key Stats (2024):

• Total Driving – 15th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 48th

Top Tier Pick #2

J.T. Poston (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 67.9, Salary: $8,900)

Having signed off on 2024 with a win at the Shriners and T5 at the RSM Classic, big things are expected from J.T. Poston in 2025.

Crucially, his approach play was in outstanding fettle, which for a player that’s accurate off the tee and reliable on the greens is a welcome turn of events.

Poston, solo sixth at Waialae last year, is particularly strong in wedge range, which is vital at such a short layout, which has yielded results previously at the somewhat correlating Wyndham Championship, RBC Heritage, and Charles Schwab Challenge.

Key Stats (2024):

• Approaches from 50-125 Yards – 20th
• Driving Accuracy – 35th
• SG: Putting – 50th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Austin Eckroat (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 62.3, Salary: $8,700)

The formula of finding fairways and hitting approaches close has worked time after time at Waialae, which is why Austin Eckroat will surely be licking his lips in anticipation.

He was in typically fine form at The Sentry, where he ranked fifth for SG: Putting, 13th for Driving Accuracy, and 14th for SG: Approach… very much the standard Eckroat style.

His game is perfectly suited to Waialae, which is evidenced by prior form at the RBC Heritage and Charles Schwab Challenge, top-10s at the Wyndham Championship and RSM Classic, as well as T12 in the Sony Open in 2023.

Key Stats (2024):

• Driving Accuracy – 16th
• Total Birdies – 26th
• SG: Approach – 27th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Lucas Glover (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 63.0, Salary: $7,300)

Lucas Glover has made a living out of picking and plotting his way around short and tight tracks like Waialae, where he finished T5 back in 2022.

The veteran has also won at the Wyndham Championship, posted top-fives at PGA National, and T7 at the correlating Bay Hill, so Glover’s credentials cannot be doubted.

Not playing at The Sentry is a black mark against his name, but a decent Fall Swing – where he finished T3 in two separate events – makes up for the absence.

Key Stats (2023):

• SG: Approach – 5th
• Driving Accuracy – 10th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 42nd

Low-Tier Pick

Nico Echavarria (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 59.0, Salary: $7,300)

Few players came out of the tailend of the 2024 season with their reputation enhanced quite like Nicolas Echavarria.

A winner at the ZOZO Championship, where he saw off the likes of Justin Thomas and Max Greyserman, in October, the Colombian also went close at the RSM Classic; just missing out on forcing a playoff with winner Maverick McNealy by one stroke.

A so-so return at The Sentry does not diminish how well he putted on the grainy Bermuda greens of Kapalua, and so if his ball-striking returns to the levels it was at during the Fall, Echavarria could be in the hunt on Sunday once more.

Key Stats (2024):

• Birdie Average – 25th
• Greens in Regulation – 30th
• Driving Accuracy – 39th

Sleeper Pick for the Sony Open

Nick Taylor (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 58.2, Salary: $7,100)

It was sad to see Nick Taylor’s game tail-off so markedly in 2024, but a new year brings with it new reasons to be cheerful.

The Canadian won the Phoenix Open and then did precious little else, but his ball-striking really began to warm up through the Fall. And he gained +5.12 strokes on the field on approach on Saturday… that’s red hot.

Unfortunately, his putting did not. But how about this: Taylor gained +1.79 on the field with the flatstick on Sunday at The Sentry, and while we might be clutching at straws, if that proves to be a breakthrough then we have a bargain on our hands here.

The kicker? Taylor has three finishes of T11 or better at Waialae to his name.

Key Stats (2024):

• SG: Approach – 55th
• Scrambling – 74th
• Driving Accuracy – 86th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Sony Open

Henrik Norlander (Odds: 175/1, FPPG: 65.6, Salary: $6,800)

A curious sleeper pick on paper, but these are exactly the conditions in which Henrik Norlander can thrive.

He has top-tens to his name in the RSM Classic, top-20s at the Wyndham Championship, and has finished T7 and T20 at the Sony Open.

An unheralded sort, Norlander ranked top-50 on TOUR in 2024 for SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Approach, and Driving Accuracy, so if he putts well – as he has before at Waialae – then the Swede can outperform expectations this week.

Key Stats (2024):

• SG: Approach – 11th
• Driving Accuracy – 15th
• Birdie Average – 46th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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