5 Golfers to Watch for the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont

The 125th U.S. Open will take place at Oakmont Country Club just outside of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, in what will likely be one of the toughest tests in some time for players as they take on what Lee Trevino once called “the only one course in the country where you could step out right now — right now — and play the U.S. Open, and that’s Oakmont.”

The conditions are already primed for what is probably going to be the toughest Major, in terms of conditions, of the year.

The rough is already one of the main points of conversation, and as our own Mike and Frank saw last month at the media event, there is no advantage to missing the fairway. It is 100% a necessity.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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There are even reports that players scouting the venue are already experiencing how penalizing the rough could be. Golfweek‘s Eamon Lynch said Rory McIlroy shot three-over on the front nine during a practice round this week, bogeying the 290-yard par-three eighth, and triple-bogeying the second.

The rough is not the only thing to worry about, either. The greens at Oakmont are among the toughest in the country. Tiger Woods once said that Oakmont presented “one of the toughest tests that we’ve ever played in a U.S. Open, especially if it’s dry…because those greens are so severe.”

Adam Scott played this week, did not miss a fairway, and still shot three-over on the front nine.

Past Winners, and How They’ve Won

The last two U.S. Opens at Oakmont occurred in 2007 and 2016, where Ángel Cabrera and Dustin Johnson won, respectively.

The two tournaments were much different: Cabrera won with a +5 and Johnson with a -4. Cabrera’s win was coupled with hot, dry temperatures, no weather delays, and tough, fast greens.

Johnson’s win started with so much rain on Thursday that half of the groups did not manage to get out for their first round tee times until Friday. This softened things up slightly and likely enabled the handful of players who finished under par to do so.

Cabera’s Path to Victory

With fast greens and course conditions, the name of the game for Cabrera was minimizing shots around the greens. He ranked 47th that week in driving accuracy, hitting just 36 percent of fairways, 12 percent below the tournament average.

However, he ranked in the Top 10 in GIR, Putts per Round, and Putts per GIR. He was first in Putts per GIR, with just 1.5.

Cabrera also started the final round four shots back of Aaron Baddely. He overtook not only Jim Furyk, but also Tiger Woods, who shot a +2 on Sunday to fall just one shot short of Cabrera.

The Argentine’s flat stick was the difference on Sunday. If conditions are fast, it is going to come down to who can limit their mistakes on the greens, hitting them in regulation, and avoiding mistakes, like three-putts.

It is almost reminiscent of last year’s tournament, which seemed to belong to Rory McIlroy until he missed three-foot putts on two occasions on the back nine.

DJ’s Path to Victory

Conditions were different for DJ when he locked up his first Major in 2016 at Oakmont. Following a heartbreak at Chamber’s Bay the year prior, Johnson redeemed himself with a three-shot cushion by the end of it.

Johnson took advantage of soft conditions early in the tournament to give himself a little bit of breathing space by the time the end of the tournament came. He shot 67-69-71 and trailed Shane Lowry by four strokes going into Sunday. 

The name of the game during the final round was damage control, as Lowry collapsed under the tough conditions and finished with a +6 on Sunday. Johnson’s game was completely different. He managed to shoot a -1, fending off Furyk, who was on Cabrera’s tail in 2007, as he shot -4.

Where DJ won this tournament was damage control. He ranked first in pars and bogeys for the tournament, and only gave up one double bogey through the four days despite the tough conditions.

The course firmed up on Sunday, and DJ was able to hit fairways and keep things simple, coasting to victory for his first Major Championship. The same strategy could be the path in 2025.

Top 5 Golfers to Watch at the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont CC

The best part of the Majors is that we get to watch the best players in the world together on one course. While everyone has their favorites and their arguments about which league is stronger, both bring some true competitors to the field.

Here are my top picks for the 2025 U.S. Open:

5. Rory McIlroy

Some might say having Rory at five is crazy, considering the year he’s had so far, and while I do understand that to a certain extent, my reasoning for having him this low is due to the fact that he has not done much since The Masters.

McIlroy had a hot start to the year and looked destined to overtake Scottie Scheffler as World #1. However, Scheffler has truly established order and responded with wins at the CJ Cup, The PGA Championship, and the Memorial.

McIlroy’s ability to hit fairways is what could put him in contention, and his distance alone should give him a sizeable advantage over the field. However, I’m not convinced his short game is where it needs to be right now to be considered an overwhelming favorite. 

With that being said, the pressure of winning his first Major in ten years is gone. He can play flow-state golf and if he can manage to bring his best game, he could be right there right at the end.

4. Collin Morikawa

Collin Morikawa has the lowest rough tendency on TOUR with just 16.77 percent, over four points better than second-place Aaron Rai.

Staying out of the rough at Oakmont is going to be imperative, and Morikawa has gotten that down. He’s also one of the best from the fairway: he ranks sixth in SG: Approach.

However, he’s had a really tough time finishing tournaments this year, which is why I’m more prone to put him at the four spot. He has not won in 19 months; he has not won a Major in four years. He’s got to be ready to end both of those. Despite a bit of a slump over his last five starts, I think he’ll be in the conversation.

3. Justin Thomas

Justin Thomas is:

• 9th in Scoring Average – 70.253
• 2nd in Birdie Average – 4.70
• 4th in SG: Total – 1.448
• 1st in Putting Average – 1.658

Not to mention, he has truly turned his game around and has become a threat week in and week out.

JT had a few rough years; there is no denying that. However, he’s put together some very good performances this year, including six Top 10s in just 13 events, a win, and he’s only missed one cut.

2. Bryson DeChambeau

The reigning U.S. Open Champion is easily among the favorites heading into this year’s tournament at Oakmont. DeChambeau has been in contention at five of the last six Majors. He’s won one, finished 2nd twice, and finished no lower than sixth in tournaments where he’s made the cut.

This is no surprise. DeChambeau’s game has truly flourished in recent years, as his distance off the tee has been consistent but his accuracy has improved. He is a better putter than ever before, and he did not shy away from the tough test that was Pinehurst No.2 last year.

The one thing that does concern me is that his distance control at The Masters was off, and it cost him a shot at the Green Jacket. At the PGA Championship, he played better and finished T2.

1. Scottie Scheffler

The best player in the world is the favorite. Why?

• He has three wins in his last four starts.
• His worst finish this year was a T25 in February at the WM Phoenix Open
• His worst finish in his last seven starts is a T8 at the RBC Heritage
• He’s finished fourth or better in both Majors this year
• He’s, without a doubt, head and shoulders above everyone else on the planet at golf

The only thing that will hold Scottie back is the driver, which betrayed him on Sunday at Quail Hollow and still was not enough to derail him from taking home the Wannamaker Trophy.