Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2016 Arnold Palmer Invitational

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for the 2016 Arnold Palmer Invitational

The Arnold Palmer Invitational Fantasy Sleeper Preview

Another week gone by on the PGA TOUR and another top star is seeing his name etched on the trophy.  With Charl Schwartzel’s victory at the Valspar Championship last week, the victor on TOUR has been ranked in the top-35 in six of the past seven outings with each of them but Schwartzel and Vaughn Taylor now residing among the top-17 of the Official World Golf Rankings.  It will be interesting to see if that trend continues this week in the next stop of the “Florida Swing” as the players set their sights on Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.  This annual event has been a staple on the PGA TOUR since 1966 and the famous Bay Hill Club and Lodge features 7,381 yards of par-72 golf which has led to some close finishes in recent seasons.

Dating back to 2005, no winner has won by more than two strokes other than Tiger Woods in 2012 when he defeated runner-up Graeme McDowell by five shots and followed that up with his eighth victory at this course in 2013 over Justin Rose.  Besides Woods, no other golfer has been able to tame this course with a win more than twice, but the same unlikely man has been able to do so in each of the past two tourneys here.

Matt Every is currently ranked 163rd in the OWGR and 149th in the FedExCup standings.  He has made the cut just once in his last nine major attempts and is a mere 4-for-7 in cuts made this year with two other tournaments ending in a withdrawal.  Still, this man has been able to win two PGA TOUR events, and they were both here at Bay Hill over each of the past two years.

Every won each of the last two events by a single stroke and in come-from-behind fashion over some huge names.  First, in 2014, he was able to catch up with the pack despite a four-shot Sunday deficit while outlasting runner-up Keegan Bradley and then took advantage of both Adam Scott and Henrik Stenson faltering with a tournament clinching 18-foot birdie to win it all.  It is no surprise to once again see him among the entrants this week along with a healthy host of big name players.  Leading that pack will be world No. 2 golfer Rory McIlroy as he is joined by four others from the top-10 of the OWGR; No. 3 Jason Day, No. 6 Adam Scott, No. 7 Henrik Stenson, and No. 8 Justin Rose.  Scott is the current FedExCup leader and will be looking for his third win in as many starts.  Besides that, the strong field will feature another eight players from within the top-30.

The recent stretch of strong performances by the game’s top players has kept any sleepers from making much noise, but there are always some with less than stellar odds making a run at the top prize and that was evidenced once again last week as names like Lee McCoy, Graham DeLaet, and Scott Brown all finished in the top-10.  That said, below are a few players who could pull off this feat come Sunday and possibly even follow in Every’s footsteps with a huge underdog victory.

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The 2016 Arnold Palmer Invitational Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The Arnold Palmer Invitational Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

Charles Howell III – Vegas Odds 66/1: Howell III has remained a consistent golfer over the past few years, making it to the weekend in 66-of-84 (79%) events from 2013-2015, but has lacked firepower and has not earned a victory since getting his second during the 2007 campaign.  He looks poised to once again contend for that top spot, going a tremendous 11-for-12 in cuts made so far this season and getting into the top-25 in nine of those eleven attempts.  Three have resulted in top-10 finishes with his best placing to date coming at the Copperhead Course last week as he posted a score of three-under and ended his weekend in a tie for fifth.  Howell III has not necessarily been elite in any one area of his game, but he does rank in the top-55 on TOUR in driving distance (302.8 yards per, 25th on TOUR), GIR (69.20%, 53rd on TOUR) and strokes gained putting (0.375, 49rh on TOUR).  He’s played all four rounds of this event in each of the last six visits with three top-25s and should be able to put up another solid effort at Bay Hill this week.

Gary Woodland – Vegas Odds 75/1: This has certainly not been Woodland’s best year in terms of production as he is currently 72nd in the FedExCup standings after finishing within the top-45 just four times over the past five years (he did manage to crack the top-25 on three occasions during that stretch).  Despite not having any huge weeks, Gary is a perfect 8-for-8 in cuts made and has made it into the top-25 three times already this year.  This week, he’ll look to have a coming out party at a course where he has an average finish of 23rd over the past three seasons.  In order to accomplish this, the two-time PGA TOUR winner will need to continue to mash the ball—which he has done better than nearly anyone else ranking second on TOUR with an average drive of 314.8 yards off the tee.  On top of that, he will need to put together a much improved week of putting which will be much tougher as he currently ranks 138th with -0.138 strokes gained putting.  If he can find his flat iron stroke, Woodland could be a serious contender and leave some big names in his dust come Sunday.

Ryan Palmer – Vegas Odds 80/1: This course has certainly not been Palmer’s favorite in the past as the soon-to-be 40-year-old is 0-for-3 in making it past Friday here at Bay Hill.  But, he’s coming back to tame the beast that has frustrated him so many times before and should have the game to accomplish just that.  Despite being older than many of the other players, Palmer still has the fifth longest average drive on TOUR (310.3 yards per) and is hitting greens in regulation at a 70% clip (35th on TOUR).  These factors should keep him in contention with the younger, top echelon names that are out there, and if nothing else he should see Sunday for the first time at Bay Hill this year.  Of his eight tournaments played this season, seven have resulted in a paycheck and four have ended in a top-25 finish.  Palmer has the length to put up some low scores this weekend and should be a good bet to outperform his 80/1 odds.

Scott Brown – Vegas Odds 110/1: Brown has been quietly having a breakout year and has already tallied three top-10s in his first twelve events after having the same amount last year over the entirety of the season (30 events).  His ranking of 44th in the FedExCup standings is 41 spots better than he has been able to finish in the past and he has successfully improved his standing in each of the past three tourneys played.  Brown has the hot hand right now as evidenced by a tie for 10th at the Honda Classic followed by a nice two-under, tie for seventh last week at the Valspar Championship.  The big difference-maker so far this year has been his ability to conquer the slow greens as he gained 1.624 strokes putting on the field at the Copperhead Course.  Look for Brown to take his overall solid game to Bay Hill this week and continue his great stretch.

Retief Goosen – Vegas Odds 125/1: Goosen does not attend too many PGA TOUR events these days, and after playing in 51 events over the past two seasons, he has been part of a mere five tournaments thus far during 2016.  However, in those few appearances he has actually done quite well, and after missing the cut in his opening outing at the Farmers Insurance Open, he has gone 4-for-4 in cuts made with his best finish coming last week as he tied for 11th behind 62.50% GIR and 0.841 strokes gained putting at the Valspar Championship.  Goosen is a long time veteran of the game who has seven career PGA TOUR wins to his name and plenty of experience at Bay Hill where he has made the cut in four out of five attempts since 2009 with his best showing coming in 2010 when he placed in a respectable fourth.  Goosen should be feeling good after last week and will be excited to prove he can still compete with the best at Palmer’s course.

Need a few more options to fill up your roster?  Remember to check out our new fantasy predictions stats page for Golficity Predicted Fantasy Points, Price Per Fantasy Point, and more info on every player in this week’s field!

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions?  Check out our full fantasy preview for the 2016 Arnold Palmer Invitational here.

Cover photo via Flickr