Fantasy Golf Odds, Picks & Predictions – The Barclays 2016

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for The Barclays 2016

The Barclays 2016 Fantasy Preview

It’s playoff time, and most year-long fantasy seasons are coming to an end.  However, for daily fantasy sports (DFS) players, it’s a new week, and loads of high-stakes games are available for a chance to win big towards the very end.

Although FedExCup points don’t mean anything to DFS players, this week’s headliners are two guys that are separated by only 34 points.  Jason Day and Dustin Johnson are the two top dogs heading into the playoffs, but don’t forget the other 40-50 guys behind them; if you keep them in mind, you have every bit of chance to score big at Bethpage Black this week.  Included in that elite group you have Adam Scott, recent winner Russell Knox, and last year’s champ, Jordan Spieth.

Day, DJ, McIlroy, and Spieth are all within the Top 5 in salaries on DraftKings this week.  Strategy-wise we’re treating each event over the next four weeks as a major, being that all of the best are compiled into one field.  Yes, the field gets smaller as the weeks go on, so this week will be your toughest challenge.  The strategy this week is to run with one Horse Pick (the must-have player), a top quality mid-tier pick, and three lower-tier picks before selecting our two sleepers.  A DraftKings lineup consists of only six players (while we offer seven), so feel free to mix and match our picks and intertwine some of our Tuesday Sleeper Report picks, who are players going off at more than 50/1 odds.  This report comes out Tuesday, and is automatically emailed to all of our Premium Members.

For those members who are new to our service, don’t forget to utilize both our GPFP (Golficity Projected Fantasy Points) Indicators and our “Sort/Rank in Field” Key Stats like GIR, Scrambling, Distance, and Accuracy when building your fantasy rosters this week.

The GPFP

Here’s an example from last week’s Wyndham with course horse and hometown hero Webb Simpson being compared to the winner, Si Woo Kim.  A big premium was put on Simpson’s price tag, but take a hard look at the stats.  Kim is matched up equally in Putting, and he beats Simpson in Short Game and Power.  Kim’s price per fantasy point (PPFP) was extremely low, which represented a good buy and easy choice over the more heavily- favored Simpson.  Obviously it also helps that he was on the block for 33.33% less than the cost as well.

Key Stats

Key stats allow you to do what most major websites don’t do: rank a player within the current week’s field.  Most sites offer you the player’s rank the PGA TOUR, but in fantasy golf, that stat isn’t always that helpful.  Take a look at this example from last week.  Our indicators signaled strong scrambling as a part of the recipe for success at Sedgefield CC, and as we sorted a solid sleeper pick between $6,500 and $6,800, we ended up running with Cejka, who withdrew from the event at the very last minute.

 

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Although we didn’t pick Kim last week, our best finisher was still our Horse Pick, Jim Furyk.  Jim finished T10 and put up 103.5 fantasy points, which marks his second consecutive week of over 100 FPPG.  Despite the missed cuts, four of our five Tuesday Sleeper Report picks made it to the weekend, and two of them (Kisner and Cauley) banked Top 10’s.  Not to mention, both guys managed to put up over 90 fantasy points, a solid showing against such low salaries.

The Barclays 2016 Field

The field this week is as robust as it’s going to get.  The top dog in points coming into Round 1 is Jason Day, a solid pick potentially in DFS this week, but he’s still neck-and-neck with Dustin Johnson.  There is something about Bethpage Black that separates the men from the boys, and we have to dig deep to pick between the two of those guys.

Only 122 players are in the lineup this week, as some top names are laying low and not competing (Garcia, Lowry, and Willett).  Young guns like Emiliano Grillo and Smylie Kaufman will get their first dose of the PGA TOUR playoffs, while buddies and now Playoff veterans Fowler, Thomas, and Spieth are all in the hunt for some early points.  To navigate this field, you need to figure out the course and how it’s played in years past.  Once we get that formula nailed down, we’ll go ahead and make our picks.

This Week’s Course Preview

Welcome to New York, the media capital of the world.  The infamous Bethpage State Park (Black Course), is deemed to be one of the toughest tests in golf and will measure in at a long 7,468 yards while playing as a Par 71.  Here’s what we know about this track: it’s long, it’s filled with bunkers, and if you miss the fairway, you’re pretty much screwed.

The Black course will require accuracy, consistency, and one heck of a short game.  Getting off the tee and landing safely in these fairways is key to the success of every golfer in the field.  Total Driving is a stat we’re focusing in on this week, and of course, Scrambling.

There are a trio of long par 5’s, and five of the par 4’s will measure in at longer than 475 yards.  Black doesn’t have the largest putting surfaces, so tighter ‘approach-to-green’  games work better here.

Past winners here include Tiger Woods in 2002 (US Open), and seven years later, Lucas Glover won it.  The Black course eventually joined the Tri-State rotation for The Barclays in 2012.

Weather Forecast for Farmingdale, NY

Finally, a week with ZERO chance of rain and no threats of a prolonged tournament!  The good news is that greens and fairways will be dry and fast, but that’s not always the best thing for certain players.  This dry weather forecast will force us to put more concentration on approach and short game stats.

Last Year’s Results from The Barclays

At the 2015 Barclays Jason Day won his third event in a five-week span on TOUR, and jumped out on Days 1 and 2 with a 63 and a 62.  There was no doubt that his golf game was near-perfect at the time; but the question remains: is Jason he the man this week?

In 2015 Day buried three long-distance birdies on the back nine, nailed the coffin shut, and ended up matching the tournament scoring record.  Henrik Stenson was also in the mix, and he kept up with Day most of Round 4, but couldn’t match all of Jason’s birdies.

[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v35Jrn2FT8Y[/embedyt]

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday-Friday, 2-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel).
  • Saturday, 1-2:30 p.m. (GC), 3-6 p.m. (CBS).
  • Sunday, noon-1:30 p.m. (GC), 2-6 p.m. (CBS).
• Mobile Broadcasts 
  • Thursday-Friday, 7:30 a.m.-3 p.m. (featured groups), 3-6 p.m. (featured holes). Saturday, 8:10 a.m.-6 p.m. (featured groups). Sunday, 8:20 a.m.-6 p.m. (featured groups).
• RADIO:
  • Thursday-Friday, noon-6 p.m.
  • Saturday-Sunday, 1-6 p.m. (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com).

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for The Barclays this Week

DraftKings has been promoting their $500K Fantasy Golf Main Event, which pays $100,000 to first place.  Although this event doesn’t kick off until September 2nd, you can win your way into this $1,500 dollar entry game that will only have 370 players.

• LAST SHOT: PGA $500K Championship SuperSAT (8x): For a $27 dollar entry, a max of 513 players will compete for one of eight entry tickets being given for the big event.
• PGA $300K Birdie ($300,000 Guaranteed): This event will consist of roughly 117,000 players all spending $3 bucks for crack at the first prize of $15,000.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for The Barclays

As we mentioned in our course preview, this track is a beast, and the players who conquer it are the ones who can score around the green.  Long ball hitters will fare well here, but we want power hitters that can keep the ball in play and show an ability to handle these fast greens.  As always our game plan this week is to pick the best of the best within their respective salary tier.

We’re building our lineups this week with a horse pick, two mid-tier picks, two low-tier picks, and two sleepers.  So let’s dive right into the picks!

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The Barclays

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The Barclays

Horse Pick: ($12,400 – $11,000)

Henrik Stenson (Golficity Odds 10/1 FPPG: 83.53 GPFP: 66.82 Salary: $11,700): Stenson is not the top dog in our GPFP category, but he ranks second in the field in FPPG and 3rd in Accuracy.  He’s having a ridiculous summer, with two wins and a silver medal and over the last five events, averaging (get this) 107 fantasy points per game!  He hasn’t logged enough rounds on TOUR to hold certain stats, but according to our Key Stats, he leads the field this week in GIR and sits at sixth in the field in Scoring Average.  Although he doesn’t possess the power that Day and DJ have, he’s still long enough to handle Bethpage and he can control the heck out of his drives and is deadly with his 3 wood.

Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season

• Scrambling: NA
• Driving Accuracy: NA
• Strokes Gained: Approach – the – Green: NA
• Strokes Gained: Putting: NA
• Strokes Gained: Tee – to – Green: NA

* Most Notable Stat:  NA

Mid-Tier Pick ($8,000-$9,900)

Hideki Matsuyama (Golficity Odds 23/1 FPPG: 65.92 GPFP: 76.46 Salary: $9,900): Unless you have four stellar sleepers all sub-$7,000, it may be tricky to fit Matsuyama and Stenson on your lineup together; but we’re going to try and make it work.  In the position of High Mid-Tier, we wrestled between Hideki and Adam Scott.  According to our stats, Scott is a longer hitter, but Matsuyama is better with his putter.  He comes in after backing up his T4 at Baltusrol with a T3 at Sedgefield, where he banked 107.7 fantasy points (92.5 the week before).  The Playoff atmosphere suits him, and this is a course uniquely suited for him.  Matsuyama is priced high, but worth every penny this week.  His stats on TOUR are amazing at this point in the season, and he comes in as one of the favorites to win the FedExCup.

Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season

• Scrambling: 87th
• Driving Accuracy: 75th
• Strokes Gained: Approach – the – Green: 2nd
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 142nd
• Strokes Gained: Tee – to – Green: 4th

* Most Notable Stat:  SG: Approach – the – Green: 2nd

Mid-Tier Pick ($8,000-$9,900)

Jim Furyk (Golficity Odds 30/1 FPPG: 55.77 GPFP: 44.62 Salary: $8,600): Furyk doesn’t possess power off the tee at all, but that doesn’t stop him from banking hundreds of fantasy points per game.  That’s right, Furyk is on fire.  And over the last two weeks, he’s averaged 104.5 FPPG and fired five sub-70 rounds (one 58), finishing the week in 5th and 10th, respectively.  We’re worried his lack of distance could hold him back, but his all-around game is something we can bank on.  He’s a fantastic scrambler, but his 2016 stats don’t do him any justice, being that he came back from an injury just three months ago.  Since being back, he’s managed to jump to 16th in Adjusted Scoring, 20th in Accuracy, and T6 in Proximity.

Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season

• Scrambling: 148th
• Driving Accuracy: 20th
• Strokes Gained: Approach – the – Green: 35th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 62nd
• Strokes Gained: Tee – to – Green: 65th

* Most Notable Stat:  Driving Accuracy: 20th

Low-Tier Picks ($7,000 – $7,900)

Ryan Moore (Golficity Odds 50/1 FPPG: 66.32 GPFP: 77.59 Salary: $7,700): It was a quiet year before the noise escalated over the last three weeks for Ryan Moore.  With an average of 97 FPPG over the last three weeks (which includes a win at the John Deere), Moore’s game looks to be in perfect tune for this week’s playoff opener.  He’s currently on an eight-round consecutive sub-70 streak, and this is all due to his brilliance around the greens.  He ranks 39th in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and 14th on TOUR in Driving Accuracy (11th in the field).

Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season

• Scrambling: 92nd
• Driving Accuracy: 14th
• Strokes Gained: Approach – the – Green: 48th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 31st
• Strokes Gained: Tee – to – Green: 55th

* Most Notable Stat:  Driving Accuracy: 14th

Russell Knox (Golficity Odds 50/1 FPPG: 68.06 GPFP: 54.45 Salary: $7,300): Knox sat out the Wyndham last week after he triumphed to victory at the Travelers the week before.  This guy is super accurate off the tee (11th in Driving Accuracy on TOUR, 8th in the field).  He also sits pretty at 2nd in GIR and T13 in proximity.  It looks as if his game is locked in right now, and he strolls into Bethpage with four consecutive Top 30 finishes, including two Top 10’s and an average of 85 FPPG in that span.  Knox has a legitimate chance of winning the FedExCup trophy coming in as the 4th in points.  A price tag like this on a player like Knox is a no-brainer.

Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season

• Scrambling: 35th
• Driving Accuracy: 11th
• Strokes Gained: Approach – the – Green: 51st
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 123rd
• Strokes Gained: Tee – to – Green: 46th

* Most Notable Stat:  Greens in Regulation: 2nd

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win The Barclays

Kevin Kisner (Golficity Odds 80/1 FPPG: 62.52 GPFP: 52.20  Salary: $6,600): Kisner comes into NY quietly in 11th place on the FedExCup leaderboard with a pretty solid record over the last few weeks.  In his last five starts, Kisner notched four Top 26 finishes, including three in the Top 18.  In that span, he’s managed to average 65 FPPG and has made 17 cuts in 22 events total on the season.  He ranks 9th on TOUR (7th in field) in Strokes Gained: Putting and 23rd in Birdie Average.  A low-priced long-ball hitter with very nice accuracy is what you get when you draft Kisner this week, and we love his price tag.

Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season

• Scrambling: 132nd
• Driving Accuracy: 36th
• Strokes Gained: Approach – the – Green: 120th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 9th
• Strokes Gained: Tee – to – Green: 92nd

* Most Notable Stat:  Strokes Gained: Putting: 9th

Salary Cap League Super Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win The Barclays

William McGirt (Golficity Odds 100/1 FPPG: 62.63 GPFP: 50.10 Salary: $6,100): The big man comes into Round 1 of the playoffs at a very attractive price tag.  He ranks very closely with Kirk and Danny Lee in this spot, but the stats are pointing at McGirt.  With seven Top 10 finishes and over 62 FPPG, this inexpensive sleeper is exactly what you need to fit Stenson, Matsuyama, and Furyk on your roster this week.  He’s on a mission coming into Round 1 of the playoffs, sitting in 14th place in the FedExCup standings.  Keep in mind that he ranks 15th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, 22nd in Strokes Gained: Putting, and 24th in Scrambling.

Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season

• Scrambling: 22nd
• Driving Accuracy: 29th
• Strokes Gained: Approach – the – Green: 65th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 22nd
• Strokes Gained: Tee – to – Green: 15th

* Most Notable Stat:  Strokes Gained: Tee – to – Green: 15th

Sample DraftKings Lineup With Stenson

Sample DraftKings Lineup Without Stenson

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Last Week’s Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Wyndham Championship

• Jim Furyk (Golficity Odds 20/1): T10 ($134,400)
• Jon Rahm (Golficity Odds 22/1): MC
• Justin Thomas (Golficity Odds 38/1): MC
• Jason Dufner (Golficity Odds 65/1): T22 ($45,665)
• Robert Garrigus (Golficity Odds 68/1): T22 ($45,665)

Last Week’s Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Wyndham Championship

• Alex Cejka (Golficity Odds 100/1): WD

Last Week’s Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Wyndham Championship

• Chez Reavie (Golficity Odds 110/1): MC

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD (2015-2016)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”9.267%” bar_text=”24 out of 259 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”20.46%” bar_text=”53 out of 259 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”24.32%” bar_text=”9 out of 37 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”21.62%” bar_text=”8 out of 37 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”74,52″ bar_text=”193 out of 259 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for The Barclays with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram.