Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2016 Wyndham Championship

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for the 2016 Wyndham Championship

The 2016 Wyndham Championship Fantasy Sleeper Preview

What a week it has been!  Justin Rose collected golf’s first-ever Olympic gold medal for Team Great Britain in Rio, while Ryan Moore produced a blistering performance to claim the John Deere Classic in Illinois.

With his win, Moore confirmed what we already knew about him: that he’s the perfect horses-for-courses pick.  He had picked up four consecutive Top-25 finishes in the JDC, including a pair of Top 10’s, prior to his win, and that will interest punters and DFS managers ahead of this week’s Wyndham Championship, which Moore won in 2009 and where he finished tenth in 2015.

But we’re naturally digging a bit deeper into the field for our Sleeper Report, and we have managed to find some good value in a collection of players that has a kind of lacklustre post-Rio, pre-FedExCup feel about it.  And that could be a pertinent point when examining the field; who has FedExCup points to defend – and points to gain – ahead of the first event of the seasonal wrap-up next week will matter a lot to how this coming weekend plays out.

The Wyndham Championship was first contested way back in 1938, when the legendary Sam Snead slayed the field to take the honours.  It has moved here, there and everywhere since before settling upon its Sedgefield Country Club home in Greensboro, North Carolina in 2008.  This Par 70, 7,127-yard stretch has produced some fine golf over the years, some low-scoring masterclasses, and some surprise winners to boot.  After Webb Simpson, Patrick Reed, and Sergio Garcia took the honours from 2012 to 2014, the two subsequent champions have been Camilo Villegas and Davis Love III, and both with a score of -17 to boot.  That is a great insight into the kind of free-scoring barnburner to expect this week.

So what can the players expect this week?  A long test, but one which is not exactly penal in its layout.  Yes, extra bunkers have been added, and the Bentgrass greens changed to Bermuda, but low scoring has remained a constant in deciding the outcome of the trophy here.  The greens are smaller than average but run at a reasonable pace (around 12 on the stimp) and are reliably undulating.  The trend is for strong putters who are accurate off the tee and who can avoid falling into the few traps that are present.  In truth, getting the ball onto the dancefloor and putting your boots off is the smart play this weekend.  Also, with a 60% chance of rain on Thursday and Friday, a good tee time will of course help.

To really add some color to those claims, let’s examine the performances of the past five champions.  Only one of them has ranked outside the Top 15 for Driving Accuracy in the last five years, with Davis Love III, the 2015 champ, just sneaking into the upper echelons in tenth.  Three have gone Top 20 for Greens in Regulation (Reed, Villegas and Love III) while the last seven winners – yes, seven – have ranked inside the Top 25 for Putting Average.

Love III’s final round of 64 ultimately won the day last year, and featured two eagles (both on Par 5s), four birdies, ten pars and two bogeys.  So clearly, scoring opportunities on the par 5’s prevail – he played them in -8 across the four days – which helps to assuage some of the damage caused by the trickier par 4’s.  That said, the front nine’s par 4’s in particular appear to be surmountable, so going low here will naturally be an advantage.

A mixed field will feature players who turned out in Illinois last week and those risking all kinds of jetlag and illness, having returned from Rio de Janeiro just 72 hours ahead of the first tee.  Will fatigue be a factor?  You would have to assume so, and as such it is likely to be wise to swerve any Olympians in Greensboro this week.

Here are five sleepers to have on board at the Wyndham Championship:

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The 2016 Wyndham Championship Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The Wyndham Championship Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

Kevin Kisner – Vegas Odds: 50/1 –  The South Carolina native started the 2016 season like a house on fire, but after a barren spring/early summer, it is no surprise to see his betting odds tumble to the mark they are this week.

But the signs suggest that Kisner is returning to somewhere near his best.  A T10 at the Dean & Deluca in May preceded three cuts made at the majors, including a T18 at the PGA Championship last time out in July.  T16 at the WGC Bridgestone and T26 at the Canadian Open confirm our suspicions that Kisner’s swing has returned.

He is three-for-three at Sedgefield Country Club, including a best of T8 in 2014, so we have no qualms about his suitability for the test in hand.  Indeed, his numbers suggest he is tailor-made for this stretch: he ranks seventh on the PGA Tour for Putting Average, 12th for Strokes Gained: Putting, 40th for Total Driving, and 32nd for Par 4 Scoring Average.  Kisner has the game to attack the par 5’s while keeping his nose clean on the par 4’s; very handy here.

Kisner’s best trio of performances came back in January, when he carded -18, -22 and -16 in the HSBC Champions, the RSM Classic and the Sony Open.  If he can recapture that form, and it looks positive on that front, then a birdie shootout will clearly not faze him.

Ben Martin – Vegas Odds 60/1 –  When shortlisting candidates for the Sleeper Report, we look at a few key areas: course history, current form, statistical make up, and suitability for the track.  Ben Martin ticks all of these boxes with relish. Barring a missed cut back in 2010, his only trip to Sedgefield yielded a T10 finish, while in his last outing he was just two shots shy of Ryan Moore at the John Deere Classic to finish second.

Another South Carolina native, Martin has returned six Top 25’s this season, and made the cut in 18 out of 24 events entered, so this young man is clearly heading in the right direction.  He is carving out a reputation as something of a Bermudagrass specialist too, and his performances on this surface tend to outdo those on Bentgrass, etc.

Martin is a free-scoring cyborg, ranking in the Top 40 on tour for both Par 4 Scoring Average (32nd) and Par 5 Birdies or Better Leaders (30th), who is arrow straight off the tee (23rd for Driving Accuracy) and decent with the flatstick (42nd for Strokes Gained: Putting). Coming in off the back of his JDC exploits, expect Martin to go well again here.

Jason Dufner – Vegas Odds 66/1 –  It is sad to see the Duf Man’s career come to this: a place in midfield in a lineup lacking in star quality.  But that is representative of his own fall from grace.  But like Kisner, there is evidence to suggest he is finding his feet once again.

Ten straight cuts made is a nice place to start – a run headlined by Top 10 returns in the US Open and Dean & Deluca, plus a T22 in the Open Championship.  His PGA Championship campaign was a disappointment, but he did play the par 5’s in -3, so let’s hope he can take advantage again on the longer stretches this week.

His previous best here was seventh back in 2012, and, interestingly, he won the 2013 PGA Championship at the Donald Ross-designed Oak Hill Country Club – he is also responsible for Sedgefield too, which gives us a handy insight into Dufner’s suitability for the setup.

Not many in the world are better at converting on the par 5’s (he ranks 30th for Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders) nor consolidating on par 4’s (32nd for Par 4 Scoring Average), and with an ability to deliver the ball to the green in a timely manner (30th for Total Driving and 12th for GIR), Dufner is a player to get onside this week.

Adam Hadwin – Vegas Odds 70/1 –  This has been something of a breakthrough season for the Canadian, and with a FedExCup place secured, he can now relax and enjoy a final tune-up ahead of the PGA Tour curtain call.

A T8 at the John Deere Classic was pleasing for his supporters, and a 25% success rate in making the Top 25 of tournaments entered suggests he is a man worth having on your side for events like this that appear to suit him.

His only appearance at Sedgefield saw him finish T51, but his game has improved this year, and he is performing astonishingly well on the green, ranking fifth for Putting Average and 14th for Stroked Gained: Putting, as well as Top 50 verdicts for Total Driving (46th) and Par 4 Scoring Average (49th).

It’s handy having young players that are upwardly mobile on board at this time of the season, and Hadwin’s brilliance with the flatstick could get him into contention this week.

Bud Cauley – Vegas Odds 80/1 –  Plenty went in big on young Bud at the John Deere Classic, and they were very nearly rewarded as the youngster enjoyed a fine four days to finish T8.  Despite his fledgling years, Cauley already has two missed cuts to his name at Sedgefield, but a T3 in 2012 highlights his suitability and so do his stats, ranking second for Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders, 14th for Total Driving, and 20th for Par 4 Scoring Average.  That’s a very nice make up for this particular test.

Also handy is that a place in the FedExCup is at hand, and at this point in the season, when burnout can be a factor, having a player onside who is motivated to go well always helps.

The Daytona Beach export has made four cuts on the spin, and his GIR and Driving Accuracy performance of 79% and 81% respectively at the John Deere is indicative of how well he is stroking the ball right now.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the 2016 Wyndham Championship here.

Cover photo via Instagram