Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds & Predictions – Deutsche Bank Championship
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Deutsche Bank Championship
The Deutsche Bank Championship 2016 Fantasy Preview
What a wild week for our fantasy golf picks! First, our Top Dog, Stenson, withdraws mid-event with an injury while our Sleeper Pick, Emiliano Grillo, finishes T2 at Bethpage Black. On the European Tour, our top pick, Thomas Pieters, won the event, and our next pick was David Lipsky, who finished 3rd. We’ll highlight all of last week’s action, but first, let’s shift gears to round two of the Playoffs and see who the best picks are heading into Boston this week.
Don’t forget, this week’s event is Friday to Monday!
Of all the horses out there, Day looked the best last week (out of Spieth, McIlroy, and DJ), and looks like he is regaining some of that dominance he had at the beginning of the season. Not only was he runner-up at the PGA Championship (title defense), he also finished T4 last week at Bethpage Black.
As of writing this we’re still unsure if Henrik Stenson will tee it up in Boston this week after withdrawing after the first round of the Barclays due to injury.
Rickie Fowler had an impressive showing in NY last week, and returns to the site of his playoff victory last year to not only defend his title, but to try and stay hot and make a move into the Top 10 in FedExCup points. Rickie tore up Bethpage Black in Rounds 1,2, and 3 in sub-70 fashion before blowing up on Day 4 to finish T7.
While Spieth played well (T5), Rory McIlroy did not, and as a result he has moved down the Playoff leaderboard and the OWGR. Rory hasn’t cracked a Top 10 since May, and last week he only had one round under par. His three bogeys and one double bogey on Sunday left a lot of fantasy players scratching their heads, wondering if he’d be worth a pick at all over the next few weeks.
With what we are seeing out there and what we know about TPC Boston, we’ll be shaking things up in our fantasy rosters a little bit his week – that’s for sure.
You can’t kick yourself if you didn’t pick Reed at Bethpage. His play in Rio was so-so, and he followed it up at the Wyndham with a T22, so his golf game had looked anything but dominant heading into last week’s event.
The fact is that Bethpage Black can bring out the worst (and best) of all players, so let’s recap last week…
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
First let’s recap our main picks before touching on the Sleeper Report and European Picks.
The Stenson withdrawal was injury-based and simply out of everyone’s control. Despite his 74 (+3) in Round 1, we were not ruling out Henrik. Jason Kokrak posted a 74 on day 1, and finished T7 with a ton of fantasy points; it’s just unpredictable when an injury forces a withdrawal. On the lighter side of things, Moore played well and added 77.5 fantasy points with his T7 finish, and overall, only one player out of our seven missed the cut.
Our Tuesday Sleeper Report listed Emiliano Grillo as a dominant player that should have been considered last week, and he proved to be just that. Grillo finished T2 and banked a whopping 96 fantasy points coming in at 80/1 odds and a price tag of just $8,300.
Our European Tour picks for the Made In Denmark were stellar last week, with our must-have pick, Thomas Pieters, winning the event overseas. Not only did we pick the winner, but our next choice, David Lipsky ($8,600), finished T3 with a total of 102 fantasy points. If you had both on your roster as we had suggested you’re most likely sitting on a fatter wallet this morning.
The Deutsche Bank Championship Field
This week features another stacked lineup of most of the same faces, as the bottom twenty or so fell off on Sunday. Without Willett in the lineup this week, you can expect a field size of 99 players.
Once again, the stories read the same as they read coming into Bethpage, although a few players have reemerged. World No. 1 Jason Day and No. 2 Dustin Johnson will be back at it for another chance to pad their playoff leads, while last year’s DB champ Rickie Fowler strolls in after an impressive outing at Bethpage.
You can probably expect Stenson to sit this week, and even if the MRI clears him of serious injury, we’re not taking a chance on him.
Patrick Reed is also back at it after a remarkable win last week, but can he continue it on a completely different style of golf course?
For more here’s the full field of 99 this week from the PGA TOUR.
This Week’s Course Preview
TPC Boston measures in at 7,297 yards, and will play as a par 71 this week. This track is home to pristine fairways and greens along with chocolate drop mounds and some deep East Coast rough. It will play a lot different than Bethpage Black, and scoring should be a little better this week.
So here’s what we know about TPC Boston and how it played last year: Fowler dominated the course and finished in the Top 6 in rankings for Scrambling (1st), Strokes Gained: Putting (2nd), Greens in Regulation (6th), and Proximity to the Hole (4th). Distance helps, but is not a necessity here; remember Bubba Watson came in ranked 1st in Distance last summer, but finished T29. Fowler finished T30 in Stance, and even finished T29th in Accuracy. We’ll be putting a heavy emphasis on the first four stats this week, and will tie in Proximity to the Hole and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in our fantasy predictions this week.
Weather Forecast for Norton, MA
Expect another East Coast gem this week, with very light chances of rain and lots of sunshine in the forecast.
Last Year’s Results from the Duetsche Bank Championship
Rickie Fowler exploded in Boston last year, taking down Henrik Stenson in what seemed like a dog fight over the final nine holes.
Rickie trailed by three shots, but he managed to come from behind and win with a closing 3-under 68. He knocked in some crucial birdies on the back nine and stayed consistent until the end. After Stenson found the water on 16, his double bogey was all that Rickie needed to jump ahead and stay there. 2015 turned out to be a terrific year for Rickie as he had won THE PLAYERS just five months prior to his Playoff victory.
[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjBmQHDfesY[/embedyt]
This Week’s Broadcast Schedule
- Television Broadcasts
- Friday-Saturday, 2:30-6:30 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
- Sunday, 1-3 p.m. (GC), 3-6 p.m. (NBC)
- Monday, 11:30 a.m.-1:30 p.m. (GC), 1:30-6 p.m. (NBC).
- Mobile Broadcasts
- Friday-Saturday, 8:30 a.m.-3 p.m. (featured groups), 3-6:30 p.m. (featured holes).
- Sunday-Monday, 8:30 a.m.-6:30 p.m. (featured holes).
- RADIO:
- Friday-Saturday, noon-7 p.m.
- Sunday-Monday, 1-6 p.m. (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com).
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Deutsche Bank Championship this Week
The golf season isn’t over yet and DFS is really heating up as we move into the second round of the 2016 Playoffs. Here are a few of our favorite contests this week:
- $400K PGA Drive the Green: Only $3 dollars to join this event. This might be a cheap ticket if you’re looking to play light this week, or perhaps take on 10 rosters. One out of 156,800 is some tough odds, but let us tell you – one solid lineup is all you need.
- $500K Fantasy Golf Main Event on DraftKings: It comes with a hefty entry fee, but for those of you who can hack it, your odds of winning $100,000 go from 1 out of 156,800 to 1 out of 370. The winner here takes home $100,000 dollars just in time for the beginning of NFL on DraftKings too!
- No Halftime: This player vs. player format allows you to pick one golfer in one round to outperform another golfer in a another round; it’s that easy. Set the stakes at $5 bucks or $100 bucks, the choice is yours. You can create a challenge or join an already existing challenge. Visit them here for a chance to try something new.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Deutsche Bank Championship
We talked a little about course stats in our preview above. Although flashy, distance and accuracy are not the standout statistics here at TPC Boston. In 2014, Chris Kirk ranked 28th in the field in Driving Distance, while Bubba ranked 1st both in 2014 and 2015, and finished T29 each time. So what does this mean? It means that guys who only max out at 280-290 have done and will do fine on this course if they can scramble and make putts. Kirk ranked within the Top 4 in Scrambling, Strokes Gained: Putting, and Proximity to the Hole.
Even Henrik Stenson in 2013 went on to win with barely any distance off of the tee, but with exceptional scrambling and putting. Guys like Day, Rory, and DJ excite fantasy players because they can all hit the ball 400 yards off of the tee if they want to, but this week we’re focusing in on the stats that have been proven to win at TPC Boston.
Here’s a sneak peak at our Top 3 players in Golficity Projected Fantasy Points this week. Use this to your advantage this week, especially when you’re looking for high quality sleepers:
Once again, remember that this is a Friday through Monday event so you have an extra day to make your picks.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Deutsche Bank Championship
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Deutsche Bank Championship
Horse Pick: ($11,000 – $12,500)
Jason Day (Golficity Odds 6/1 FPPG: 83.91 GPFP: 107.40 Salary: $12,500): We’re picking the top dollar boy this week, and it’s for a good reason. You have to pick Day, DJ, or Spieth this week…that much is a must. The question is who do you run with? In this case, we have enough solid sleepers at very low prices, so we can afford to pick the No. 1 Player in the World. He sizzled at Bethpage with a hot putter en route to a T4 finish, and he was the only player in the field to go under par every round. His stats will blow you away if you read them all so we’ll hit the highlights below. Keep in mind that Day has six Top 20’s here, including three Top 10’s.
Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season
- Scrambling: 27th
- Greens in Regulation: 61st
- Proximity to the Hole: 178th
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 1st
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 11th
* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained: Total: 1st
Top-Tier Pick ($9,500-$10,999)
Patrick Reed (Golficity Odds 20/1 FPPG: 72.89 GPFP: 91.84 Salary: $10,200): Reed is white hot after last week’s victory and beaming with confidence. He’s been close often over the last few months, and finally he got it done after a disappointing MC at his title defense at the Wyndham. With the win, Reed has two 2nd place finishes and an additional seven other Top 10’s on the season. The boy can scramble (5th in field) and has been hot around the greens (6th in SG: Around-the-Green). To boot, he has seven straight weeks with over 70 fantasy points per game.
Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season
- Scrambling: 5th
- Greens in Regulation: 108th
- Proximity to the Hole: 94th
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 58th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 22nd
* Most Notable Stat: Scrambling: 5th
Mid-Tier Pick ($8,000-$9,499)
Phil Mickelson (Golficity Odds 32/1 FPPG: 70.95 GPFP: 72.37 Salary: $9,300): Wow – was this tier tough to pick! Emiliano Grillo has been one of the hottest fantasy players over the last few weeks, and he comes in cheaper than Phil by $300 bucks. But we love Phil’s ability to scramble over Grillo’s, as the lefty comes in ranked 4th on TOUR in the stat, while Grillo sits way down at 159th. Without mentioning how consistent he is here, Phil is 9-for-9 in cuts made at TPC Boston, and he owns two Top 10’s on this track. He ranks 2nd on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Putting, right behind our horse pick Jason Day. He’s due for a win; it’s simply been too long, and we’ve all seen how well he’s played this year. If you need to shave salary, run with Grillo, but if you can fit him, make him your first choice.
Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season
- Scrambling: 4th
- Greens in Regulation: 69th
- Proximity to the Hole: 130th
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 2nd
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 16th
* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained: Putting: 2nd
Low-Tier Picks ($7,000 – $7,999)
Ryan Moore (Golficity Odds 50/1 FPPG: 66.32 GPFP: 77.59 Salary: $7,900): Moore is arguably the hottest player on TOUR in his respective tier. Once August hit, Moore flipped the switch and started putting up serious fantasy points. Over the last four weeks, Moore has averaged over 80 FPPG, which includes his 140-fantasy-point victory a few weeks back. He’s accurate off the tee but again, we’re not overly concerned with that stat this week. More importantly, he sticks pins with a very well-rounded approach game, and despite his T53 finish two weeks ago, he banked a ton of fantasy points with excellent-scoring plays (1 Eagle, 16 Birdies, 44 Pars). He backed it up with a T7 at Bethpage last week.
Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season
- Scrambling: 75th
- Greens in Regulation: 80th
- Proximity to the Hole: 20th
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 34th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 49th
* Most Notable Stat: Driving Accuracy: 12th
Charlie Hoffman (Golficity Odds 75/1 FPPG: 68.06 GPFP: 54.45 Salary: $7,000): Hoffman looks to have turned a corner over the last two weeks after a disappointing summer. Over his last two starts, Charlie has posted a T25-T13 finish and put up 77 fantasy points. The 2010 DB champ usually dials it up around this time of the year, and we love his game at TPC Boston. As far as key stats go, Hoffman ranks 13th on TOUR in Scrambling and 26th in Strokes Gained: Total.
Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season
- Scrambling: 13th
- Greens in Regulation: 125th
- Proximity to the Hole: 46th
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 95th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 28th
* Most Notable Stat: Scrambling: 13th
Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Deutsche Bank Championship
Bill Haas (Golficity Odds 80/1 FPPG: 62.52 GPFP: 52.20 Salary: $6,600): Bill Haas at a $6,600 dollar price tag? He looked pretty disappointing last week at Bethpage, but this past FedExCup Champion could capture some lighting in a bottle for you this week. Here’s the scoop on Billy: around the green, he’s deadly (10th in SG: Around-the-Green), and even approaching the green, his game is pretty top notch. Although his putting is his worst enemy right now, his scrambling can make up for it. Haas ranks 12th on TOUR in Scrambling, and that’s what leads to his scoring around the green. For $6,600, he may be a solid choice as a sleeper this week.
Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season
- Scrambling: 12th
- Greens in Regulation: 48th
- Proximity to the Hole: 121st
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 157th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 20th
* Most Notable Stat: Scrambling: 12th
Salary Cap League Super Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Deutsche Bank Championship
Adam Hadwin (Golficity Odds 100/1 FPPG: 62.63 GPFP: 50.10 Salary: $5,500): If you’re going to get Day and Reed on your roster, you’re going to need to explore the $5,000 tier. Hadwin has had his share of Top 10’s this season, and in fact, over the last 10 weeks, he’s managed to bank over 70 FPPG five times. And Hadwin has something that no other $5K priced player has – a ridiculously hot putter. Coming in ranked 15th on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Putting, Hadwin has proven to be a force on TOUR, but he has a daunting task ahead of him. At 91st on the FedExCup leaderboard, he needs to crank up the dial if he wants to make it the next round. We love this firepower (and motivation to play well) as a $5,500 dollar sleeper pick.
Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season
- Scrambling: 105th
- Greens in Regulation: 86th
- Proximity to the Hole: 114th
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 15th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 115th
* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained: Putting
Sample DraftKings Lineup With Day
Sample DraftKings Lineup Without Day
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Last Week’s Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The Barclays
- Henrik Stenson (Golficity Odds 10/1): WD due to injury mid-event
- Hideki Matsuyama (Golficity Odds 23/1): MC
- Jim Furyk (Golficity Odds 30/1): T41 ($29,750)
- Ryan Moore (Golficity Odds 50/1): T7 ($264,916)
- Russell Knox (Golficity Odds 50/1) T460 ($18,445)
Last Week’s Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win The Barclays
- Kevin Kisner (Golficity Odds 80/1): T48 ($21,624)
Last Week’s Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win The Barclays
- William McGirt (Golficity Odds 100/1): T41 ($29,750)
Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD (2015-2016)
Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the Deutsche Bank Championship with other Premium Members.
Cover Photo via Instagram
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