Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

2017 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Fantasy Preview

The West Coast Swing takes us back to California for this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach National, and we head there on a high after our top-tier pick, Hideki Matsuyama, triumphed in a dramatic playoff over Webb Simpson at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.  Many doubted our Matsuyama top pick last week over Spieth and the trending Justin Thomas, but we proved once again that our formula works.

The Japanese ace had led for much of the week until he was brilliantly usurped by Byeong-Hun An on Saturday.  However, the young Korean could not get the job done on Sunday as he and fellow 54-hole leader Martin Laird suffered the finish line jitters; both carding 73 to end their hopes of victory.

So that left Sunday’s chargers, Matsuyama and Simpson, to duke it out in extra time, which witnessed four extra holes – and a couple of golden chances spurned by Simpson, before Matsuyama got over the line with a clutch putt from around 10ft.  It is his fourth win worldwide this season.

We’re heading to the iconic Pebble Beach this week, the host course alongside Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula’s Shore course, for a pro-am event that was won in spectacular fashion by Vaughn Taylor, who just pipped Phil Mickelson to the post.  He didn’t even secure entry into the tournament until Monday’s qualifying, before ending a trophy drought dating back more than a decade in victory.  That meant that Lefty remains stuck on four Pebble Beach wins – one shy of Mark O’Meara’s record.  Can he get the job done this week?

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

We caught a bit of criticism in early-week emails from our Premium Members asking we were betting the ranch on Hideki Matsuyama over Justin Thomas—a guy who already won back-to-back on TOUR this season.  Despite Matsuyama’s $200 DraftKings salary premium over Justin Thomas, he was still the absolute must have pick of the week; and our Premium Members who heeded that advice saw a nice payday last Sunday.  Those who caught the action already know that Matsuyama came out on top in his title defense while Justin Thomas didn’t even survive the cut.

 

Here’s what we said about Matsuyama last week in case you missed it:

“How could we overlook the Asian sensation this week?  A course formline of 1-2-4, for a player who has snapped up three titles worldwide in the past couple of months alone, means that Matsuyama is unmissable this week.

Okay, so a return of T33 from the Farmers last time out is less than eye-catching, but his return of 71-70-71-72 is hardly a disaster in such conditions.  Lest we forget he missed the cut at last year’s Torrey Pines jaunt prior to lifting this trophy a week later, so we don’t have to be fearful.  Plus, two of the other finest players on the planet, Dustin Johnson and Jason Day, missed out on the weekend, so there’s no shame at all in Matsuyama’s finish.

It’s no wonder the 24-year-old has flourished at TPC Scottsdale; his game is tailor-made for this stretch.  He gains so many shots from tee to green with his excellent approach play, and the efficiency of his short game marks him out as something of a short course master; he ranks fifth on tour for Par 4 Scoring.

In such salubrious company, we’re looking to get one of the elite on board at what could be a tough test.  Matsuyama fits the bill.”

Despite a mid-round injury withdrawal from Pat Perez, the remaining six players in our main picks segment all made the cut with Matsuyama winning (122 Fantasy Points), Mickelson creeping up the leaderboard all week (87 Fantasy Points), and Brendan Steele, who eventually cooled off late Sunday to finish T16 (89.5 Fantasy Points).

If anyone was brave (read: smart) enough to take our super sleeper pick on our Tuesday Sleeper Report at 250/1 Vegas Odds, then J.J. Spaun ($7,000) would have given your team a T4 and a ton of low-priced fantasy points to boot.

The 2017 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Field

Mickelson’s quest for redemption will be hampered by what is a pretty strong field for a pro-am event.  Jason Day and Dustin Johnson will be looking to bounce back from missed weekends at Torrey Pines in their last starts two weeks ago, and they will be joined by former Pebble Beach champions in Taylor, Brandt Snedeker and Jimmy Walker.

Jordan Spieth and Daniel Berger, fresh from top-10s at TPC Scottsdale, will tee off alongside an outstanding cast which also features Jon Rahm, Patrick Reed, Justin Rose, and Tony Finau, while course horses JB Holmes and Jim Furyk will also be expected to go well once again.

This Week’s Course Preview

We’ve have three stunning tracks to enjoy this week, with all three on rotation from Thursday-Saturday before Pebble Beach rightly takes the honors on Sunday.

The host course is one of the most famous in world golf, with its spectacular ocean vistas belying what is a pretty tough test of skill.  A short track at just 6,828 yards for its Par 72, the complexity comes in finding its tiny greens; among the smallest on the PGA TOUR.  The host of five majors in the past, there is plenty of room off the tee at Pebble Green but finding those greens – especially in typically Californian conditions – can be a testing assignment.

Next up is Spyglass Hill which is short by modern standards at 6,960 yards and a course that plays slightly easier than Pebble Beach.  Once again landing areas are smaller than average, but the tree-lined fairways at least offer some shelter from those West Coast winds.

And then we have Monterey Peninsula, which is the easiest track of the three to score on.  Another sub-7000 yard test at 6,873, this stretch is where the players will look to cash in and post a decent total.

All of the above tracks feature Poa Annua greens, which were in place at Torrey Pines two weeks ago for another Californian test, the Farmers Insurance Open.

Weather Forecast for Monterey, CA

It’s not good news really: rain has been forecast quite readily for Thursday and Friday, with the heaviest downpours expected on Thursday afternoon.  Temperatures are cool and winds are expected to touch 15 mph.

But then things are expected to improve in time for the weekend, according to the early forecasts.  Saturday will be sunny and less gusty, with Sunday following a similar pattern.

As such, a draw advantage could exist for those playing Monterey early on Thursday morning and then Pebble Beach on the more settled Saturday; keep an eye out for that.

Last Year’s Results from the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

The likes of Chez Reavie (-9), Bronson Burgoon (-8), and Cameron Smith (-8) all took advantage of a Thursday Monterey draw by demolishing the course and flying into an early lead.  Each would go on to finish inside the top-30….

If ever the wisdom of patience was evidenced in multi-course golf then it was here, with Vaughn Taylor some seven shots adrift of the leaders after the first round.  His own moment would come on Saturday at Monterey when his 67 got him back into contention, but it was his outstanding 65 at Pebble Beach on Sunday that enabled him to catch the likes of Mickelson, Hiroshi Iwata, and Roberto Castro, who all posted rounds in the 70s.

The likes of Patrick Reed and Lucas Glover flew up the leaderboard on Sunday with scores of 65 and 67 respectively, and the key take-home point was that playing Pebble Beach well is the shortcut to success in this event.  A brilliant 66 from Mickelson had gotten him into contention in the third round, so we’re happy to suggest that playing Pebble Beach well is a huge advantage to those finishing in decent positions.

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This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday-Friday, 3-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel).
  • Saturday, 1-2:30 p.m. (GC), 3-6 p.m. (CBS).
  • Sunday, 1-2:30 p.m. (GC), 3-6:30 p.m. (CBS).
• Mobile Broadcasts (PGA TOUR LIVE):
  • Thursday-Friday, 11 a.m.-3 p.m. ET (featured groups), 3-6 p.m. (featured holes).
  • Saturday, 11 a.m.-6 p.m. (featured groups). Sunday, 11 a.m.-6:30 p.m. (featured groups).
• RADIO: (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com)
  • Thursday-Saturday, noon-6 p.m. ET.
  • Sunday, 1-7 p.m.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am this Week

Three-course rotational tournaments offer savvy DFS gamers a genuine advantage over the casual player, and so DraftKings’ weekly slate can be attacked with gusto.

• PGA $500K Dogleg: It’s the big dog of the DFS week, and this Pebble Beach event feels like an excellent fit for pushing the boat out.  A $33 buy-in offers the chance to win a top prize of $50,000!

• PGA $60k Eagle: If you’re looking to build your bankroll then this three-team multi-entry contest is for you.  A $5 entry will be doubled in prize money at least for finishing inside the top 20%, with a top prize of $3,000 up for grabs.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 

This really is a strange and challenging tournament to predict.  Prior to 2016, the previous champions had been Mickelson, Snedeker, and Walker, so we might assume that the ‘cream rises to the top’ at Pebble Beach.

But then 12 months ago Taylor ended a ten-year wait for a trophy, Lefty threw away a commanding lead, and Hiroshi Iwata, second heading into Sunday before finishing T4, was a 1000/1 bet in Vegas.  Sometimes with wind-affected golf, it is simply better to expect the unexpected.

Taylor’s template for victory was as expected.  Remember, these three tracks are all similar in nature: comfortable off the tee with plenty of room, but tiny of green – making GIR, Proximity and all those other stats so important.  Taylor hit 75% of greens and gained +5.05 and +4.67 strokes on the field from Tee-to-Green and on the approach, and he was even afforded the luxury of putting like a drain (-0.45 SGP).  His Off-the-Tee numbers of +0.07 confirm that strong work off the peg is almost inconsequential.

Only three non-US players have won this event since it began way back in 1937.  The last was Vijay Singh more than a decade ago, so perhaps drafting an all-American roster is smart this week.  Another unexpected and possibly inconsequential correlation is between Singh, a Fijian, and Snedeker, both a champion of Pebble Beach and the Fiji International tournament.  On weeks as tough as this to make accurate predictions, we’ll take any help we can get.

You would think there is a correlation between the Farmers Insurance Open and this event, given that both are held at a similar time of year in California on rotational, Poa Annua courses.  There is a link there certainly, with both Freddie Jacobsen and Jonas Blixt recording top-10s in both in 2016 and other signs from Kevin Streelman (T4 at Farmers, T17 at Pebble Beach), Jimmy Walker (T4 to T11) and JB Holmes (T6 and T11) to suggest our instincts are correct.  So form at Torrey Pines is of key concern to us too.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Please Note: Due to the limited events played in 2017, some players have not yet accrued enough stats to qualify for an accurate GPFP.

Top Tier Pick : 

Jordan Spieth (Odds: 9/1, FPPG: 108.9, GPFP: 123.03 Salary: $12,000)

When he burst onto the scene as golf’s latest phenom, Jordan Spieth was known for his unparalleled putting capabilities; regardless of what he did from tee-to-green, it was as if his putter had a magical ability to get him out of trouble and convert scores.

This season, something slightly different is afoot.  Spieth is pinging greens and not putting at his best, but we expect that theme to be turned around when he returns to his favorite Poa Annua surface this week.

The 23-year-old bagged a sneaky top-10 at the Phoenix Open last week without threatening, but the signs were exciting: he gained an impressive +1.932 strokes on the field from tee-to-green and +1.791 on approach.  You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to see that on a trio of courses where driving doesn’t matter so much, if Spieth is hitting greens AND putting well then he is going to go mighty close to the trophy.

The eight-time PGA TOUR winner has played in this event four times with a string reading 22-4-7-21.

Key Stats:

• GIR Percentage – 1st
• Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green – 4th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 10th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Justin Rose (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 73.3, GPFP: 80.58 Salary: $9,200)

Prior to Taylor, the three previous winners of this event were Snedeker, Mickelson and Walker, and so the assumption we’re deriving is that the cream very often rises to the top at Pebble Beach (apologies, Vaughn!).

And so we’re willing to chance a large percentage of our salary cap on not one but two elite picks this week; the second of whom is Justin Rose, who was excellent in finishing T4 at the Farmers a fortnight ago.

The Englishman finished T6 in this event 12 months ago, so there’s some nice correlations taking place here, and he does look ready to challenge the elite again.  In three starts this season, he withdrew from the Hero World Challenge but has subsequently finished T2 (the Sony Open) and T4 at Torrey Pines.  The signs are very good indeed for JRose.

Key Stats (2016):

• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 5th
• Strokes Gained: Total – 11th
• Scoring Average – 16th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

J.B Holmes (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 84.3, GPFP: 109.63 Salary: $8,400)

The Ryder Cup man has gone 11-10 in his last two starts in this event, and he is playing some excellent golf of late.

Four top-40 returns this season are just the oversight of what is a good run of form for the Kentuckian, with 33-24 at the Farmers and then Phoenix Open a handy point of reference into an event he clearly loves.

He handled Pebble Beach particularly superbly last year in a combined -4 across his two rounds, and so with his shooting boots on at Monterey and Spyglass he could rack up a formidable total.

Key Stats (2016):

• Birdie Average – 8th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 38th
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green – 38th

Low-Tier Pick #1:

JJ Spaun (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 74.1, GPFP: 59.30  Salary: $7,900)

JJ is a Web.com Tour graduate and he has now graduated from a sleeper to a main roster pick for us too.

We marked your card last week in our Tuesday Sleeper Report for the Phoenix Open about the 26-year-old, and boy did he deliver: a T4 finish agonizingly short of a huge 250/1 payout for Vegas punters.

That came hot on the heels of a T9 at the Farmers, and perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised: Spaun was born in Los Angeles and schooled in San Diego, so clearly the apple hasn’t fallen far from the tree.  Let’s hope he provides another strong showing on Californian soil here.

Key Stats:

• Par 3 Birdie or Better Leaders – 37th
• Total Birdies – 43rd
• Approaches from 100-125 Yards – 48th

Low-Tier Pick #2:

Henrik Norlander (Odds: 250/1, FPPG: 63.7, GPFP: 50.93 Salary: $6,500)

This Swede is one of those excellent point accumulators who tend to exceed their lowly salary.

You may recall him participating in that epic play-off at the RSM Classic, and his appearance at such a heady stage of the tournament was due to his exceptional green-hitting ability.  He followed that up with T20 at the Sony Open, and while he missed the cut at Farmers his scores of 73-72 are hardly the end of the world.

The Pro-Am format suits guys like laidback Norlander, and look at his stats below to confirm that he is an underpriced gem here.

Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green – 9th
• Strokes Gained: Total – 13th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 24th

Sleeper Pick for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Jonas Blixt (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 58.9, GPFP: 61.82 Salary: $7,800)

Another West Coast specialist is Jonas Blixt, who connected top-10s finishes at the Farmers and Pebble Beach last year, and he might well achieve something similar given that he was T20 at Torrey Pines just last month.

The Swedish star showed nicely at the Phoenix Open in patches, with that second round of -7 showcasing his excellent scoring power when in the mood.  We expect him to go well around Monterey in particular.

His stats might be awful, but don’t be fooled: Blixt can go top-20 as a bare minimum here.

Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green – 40th
• Birdie Average – 81st
• Birdie or Better Percentage – 83rd

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Shane Lowry (Odds: 45/1, FPPG: 77.5, GPFP: 62.00 Salary: $7,000)

He’s not someone we like to overly commit to, but with converging trends of form and course history maybe this is time to dust off the genial Irishman.

Lowry gained a whopping +2.646 strokes on the field from tee to green at the Phoenix, where he finished T16, and he nabbed a T21 finish at Pebble Beach back in 2015.

Anyone who follows the game will know that there’s nothing fancy about the Irishman’s game, but nothing outstanding is needed here: just sensible course management and a handy short game.  Lowry possesses both in abundance.

Key Stats (2016):

• Strokes Gained: Total – 47th
• Scoring Average – 51st
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green – 59th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineups

Sample Lineup #1

Sample Lineup #2

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2016-2017)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”6.49%” bar_text=”5 out of 77 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”22.08%” bar_text=”17 out of 77 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”38.96%” bar_text=”30 out of 77 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”9.10%” bar_text=”1 out of 11 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”9.10%” bar_text=”1 out of 11 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”70.13″ bar_text=”54 out of 77 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2017 Pebble Beach Pro-Am with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram