Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds & Predictions – Genesis Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Genesis Open

2017 Genesis Open Fantasy Preview

Needless to say, we’re on quite the winning streak!  Our Premium Members are carrying around fatter wallets today given that our top fantasy picks Matsuyama and Spieth each took home trophies in the last two events.

Our second consecutive fantasy win saw Jordan Spieth lead basically from wire-to-wire to remind everybody just how good a player he is, while other favorites Jason Day and Dustin Johnson failed to get better than within 5 strokes of the title.

With the victory Spieth becomes the youngest ever player to win three times on the PGA TOUR by three or more shots, and the second youngest of the modern era (behind Tiger) to win nine times on Tour.  His stats so far this season, particularly in his approach play, have been outstanding, and we were very confident he would re-enter the winner’s circle sooner rather than later.  Happily for us it was last week!

 

So now the 23-year-old will attempt to emulate Justin Thomas in going back-to-back at the Riviera Country Club in the Pacific Palisades, the host for this week’s renamed Genesis Open (you may remember it as the Northern Trust Open).  A strong field will once again do battle in California with three players coming in on the back of wins (Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, and Sergio Garcia) locking horns with the likes of Dustin Johnson and Jason Day.  Needless to say, it should be another fine week of golf on the West Coast.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

In case you’re new to our Premium Service, we offer a tool with our predictive algorithm known as the GPFP (Golficity Projected Fantasy Points).  Just to give you an example of how effective this tool is, here are the Top 3 in GPFP that our members saw last week prior to the event kicking off:

This tool has proven to be highly effective this season as evidenced by last week’s performance as we now all know Spieth won and finished with 122.50 Fantasy Points—not a bad forecast at 123.03!  As for the other two guys on the list, Rahm finished T5 while Kisner finished T10.

We had all of the reasons to bet the ranch on Spieth last week and boy are we glad that we did.  His twenty-three birdie week (with only four bogeys) and 1st place finish were enough to help DFS fantasy owners bank some cash as others bet heavy on Day and Johnson.  Here’s a quick recap of what we said about Spieth going into last week:

When he burst onto the scene as golf’s latest phenom, Jordan Spieth was known for his unparalleled putting capabilities; regardless of what he did from tee-to-green, it was as if his putter had a magical ability to get him out of trouble and convert scores.

This season, something slightly different is afoot.  Spieth is pinging greens and not putting at his best, but we expect that theme to be turned around when he returns to his favorite Poa Annua surface this week.

The 23-year-old bagged a sneaky top-10 at the Phoenix Open last week without threatening, but the signs were exciting: he gained an impressive +1.932 strokes on the field from tee-to-green and +1.791 on approach.  You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to see that on a trio of courses where driving doesn’t matter so much, if Spieth is hitting greens AND putting well then he is going to go mighty close to the trophy.

The eight-time PGA TOUR winner has played in this event four times with a string reading 22-4-7-21.

We’ll be doing everything in our power this week to make it three weeks in a row heading into the Genesis Open!

The 2017 Genesis Open Field

As mentioned earlier, we have three players in red-hot form coming into this one.  Spieth, for obvious reasons, Matsuyama after his WM Phoenix Open triumph two weeks ago, and Sergio Garcia, who took down the European Tour’s Dubai Desert Classic.  Add into the mix DJ and Day, who both found varying degrees of form at Pebble Beach last time out, and we could have a real barnburner on our hands.

There’s plenty more to savor too.  We have Bubba Watson, winner at Riviera in 2016 and 2014, looking to remind the world of what he is capable of, Justin’s Rose and Thomas, Brandt Snedeker on the back of two top-10s, another two-time Riviera champ in Phil Mickelson, Patrick Reed, Brooks Koepka, JB Holmes, Branden Grace….the list goes on in this deep field.

This Genesis Open is shaping up to be something extra special.

This Week’s Course Preview

After a couple of rotational-course jaunts on the West Coast, it’s kind of nice to be back to the one course format at the stunning Riviera Country Club.

Riviera is a bit of beast of a track for its Par 71 mark at 7,322 yards, and is home to some outstanding features in golf course construction: who doesn’t love the bunker that resides in the middle of the sixth’s green!  The driveable Par 4 tenth offers up eagle opportunities galore too.

The make-up of the course is unusual too, with Poa Annua greens once again the focus alongside the Kikuyu surfaces of fairway and rough.  These are commonly found in South Africa, and can prove a particularly menacing threat when wet.

Like Pebble Beach, the greens are small at Riviera and thus hard to hit, and with some fairly daunting run-offs and gradients putting the ball near the flag is going to be as difficult as ever.  So finding the right lines off the tee – plus accurate iron play – is essential.  It should be a fantastic test of this excellent field’s abilities.

Weather Forecast for Pacific Palisades, CA

Grabbing a Thursday morning tee time could be the key to a strong start here.  First up we have almost perfect scoring conditions: sunshine, no rain, no wind to speak of and a bit of humidity just to help ball flight.  Throughout the afternoon the wind is forecast to escalate to around 10 mph so the first groups out have a clear weather advantage if the forecast is correct.

Then on Friday….the rain comes.  We have a 95% chance of rain forecast first thing Friday morning with 10 mph winds, and this theme continues throughout the day.  The breeze will get stronger (up to 20 mph) and the precipitation is not expected to relent.

The forecast for the weekend is mixed too, with bouts of rain and strong gusts in the mix.  It could get rather interesting once again, as it did in Pebble Beach last week.

Last Year’s Results from the Genesis Open (prev. Northern Trust Open)

Last year, the eventual champion, Bubba Watson, put himself in the hot seat pretty much from the get-go with his opening salvo of 66, and that was only bettered by a sizzling -8 from Camilo Villegas, who incredibly led by three shots heading into Friday.  The Colombian could not quite hold it together for the weekend.

The left-hander continued his march to a second Riviera title by posting four scores in the 60s, and while he had illustrious company at the top of the leaderboard – Adam Scott and Dustin Johnson joined Jason Kokrak in contention – Bubba ended on a hot streak by birdieing two of his last three holes, with Scott and Kokrak both faltering down the home straight.

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This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday-Friday, 2-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel).
  • Saturday, 1-2:30 p.m. (GC), 3-6 p.m. (CBS).
  • Sunday, 1-2:30 p.m. (GC), 3-6:30 p.m. (CBS).
• Mobile Broadcasts (PGA TOUR LIVE):
  • Thursday-Friday, 9:30 a.m.-3 p.m. ET (featured groups), 3-6 p.m. (featured holes).
  • Saturday, 11 a.m.-6 p.m. (featured groups).
  • Sunday, 11 a.m.-6:30 p.m. (featured holes).
• RADIO: (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com)
  • Thursday-Friday, noon-6 p.m. ET.
  • Saturday, 1-6 p.m.
  • Sunday, 1-7 p.m. (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com).

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Genesis Open this Week

With such a wide open and varied field this week, player ownership is likely to be reduced.  This is your chance to go in DraftKings hard!

• PGA $350K Birdie: A sweet $25k is up for grabs for the winner of this $3 contest, and if you finish inside the 38,000 places then you’ll win a prize of some description.  You can do that, right?

• PGA $40k Albatross: Enhance your chances of victory in this single-entry contest.  $12 gets you in to battle for the $4k top prize, with the top 15% of finishers doubling their money.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Genesis Open

This really is a tough event to fathom out, as the range of winners (Bubba last year to Steve Stricker and Aaron Baddeley in ’11 and ’10) doesn’t really offer anything consistent.  In the last five renewals the winning scores have ranged from -16 (Bubba last year) to -6 (James Hahn in 2015) so perhaps the extremity of the weather will dictate the lowest total once again.

So what did Watson do so well?  He was excellent from tee-to-green as you might expect on a test like this, gaining 2.411 strokes from T2G, and his approach play was very strong too (+1.694).  His putting was also effective, but then when your short game was as hot as Bubba’s was 12 months ago then the short stick is less relevant; indeed, the likes of Matsuyama, Marc Leishman ,and JB Holmes all bagged top-10s a year ago despite being ice cold on the dancefloor.

This could be a test where a score of around -10 could get the job done if the weather forecast is to be believed, so going low on the Par 5s and avoiding mishaps on the Par 4s will be key.  Bubba played the longer holes in -9 and the regulation in -2, and with six of the Par 4s weighing in at over 450 yards and being wind affected, we are going to look to the ‘accurate bombers’ off the tee, if such a thing exists.

Bubba hit 70% of greens but only 50% of fairways, so Scrambling becomes an important stat this week too.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Genesis Open

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Genesis Open

Please Note: Due to the limited events played in 2017, some players have not yet accrued enough stats to qualify for an accurate GPFP.

Top Tier Pick : 

Dustin Johnson (Odds: 10/1, FPPG: 90.8, GPFP: 103.51 Salary: $11,400)

We’ll be honest: it was a straight-up fight between Johnson and Spieth for top billing this week, and the main reason that DJ won out was because you just never know how a champion is going to react a week later.

But let’s not diminish DJ here: he boasts an outstanding record at Riviera in going 7-for-9 including four top-5 in his last five visits.  There simply isn’t a better horse for the course this week, apart from Bubba arguably.

And then there was his run last week at Pebble Beach, where he appeared to return to somewhere like his best form.  Hitting plenty of greens in tricky conditions, DJ gained +2.96 of his strokes from tee-to-green and +0.94 in his approach work, and his season’s ranking of 17th for Total Driving confirms he is one of the best off the tee in the business.

So everything appears to be coming together for Johnson this week….could he provide us with its third straight winner?  We certainly think so!

Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 2nd
• GIR Percentage – 16th
• Total Driving – 17th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Shane Lowry (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 76.7, GPFP: 61.33 Salary: $7,900)

We’ve been admiring the Irishman’s work from afar of late, and after drafting him onto our sleeper roster at Pebble Beach his finish of T14 more than justifies his elevation to the main team at Riviera.

It’s not a course he has played at before and so there is an element of risk attached here, but Lowry’s game seems purpose-built for the stretch given that his iron work has been exemplary of late.  His gains were huge last time out – +2.46 for SG:T2G and +2.05 for Approach play – and that was in those horrendous conditions particularly across the opening two rounds.  The Irishman’s upbringing in the windy Emerald Isle clearly stands him in good stead for these West Coast jaunts.

The big man is playing with a smile on his face again after a torturous couple of years, and with a formline reading 33-16-14 we wouldn’t be at all surprised if that pattern continued into a top-ten return this week.

Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 9th
• Total Driving – 9th
• Strokes Gained: Approach – 17th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Francesco Molinari (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 82.5,  GPFP: 66.00 Salary: $7,900)

With a rather indecent run of form we’re expecting Francesco Molinari to go under the radar somewhat this week, but try not to miss out if you can.

He’s ranked 29th in the FedExCup standings and 31st in the Official World Rankings, which makes his Vegas odds and salary here rather offensive.

The Italian stallion has gone 6-4-12-14 this season and ranks inside the top-20 on Tour for so many key metrics this week it hurts: including the ones listed below, Molinari also stands 10th for Scrambling and 11th for Par 5 Scoring.

Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Approach – 3rd
• Total Driving – 5th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 10th

Mid-Tier Pick #3:

Keegan Bradley (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 56.4, GPFP: 58.63 Salary: $7,500)

Outstanding off the tee, Bradley has bagged four top-20 returns from his last five visits to Riviera, and a playoff defeat in 2012 will have left with him plenty of good memories of the place – even if that result didn’t go his way.

His form is mixed, with two missed cut in his last four starts, but we like his T4 at the Farmers Insurance Open where he would have gone so close to winning but for a third round of 74.  He missed the cut at the WM Phoenix Open a week later but with a score of Evens; we’re not going to lose any sleep over that.

An excellent driver with a varied short game, Bradley appears tailor-made for Riviera and his past results here prove the theory.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 8th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 25th
• Strokes Gained: Approach – 31st

Low-Tier Pick:

Camilo Villegas (Odds: 300/1, FPPG: 57.3, GPFP: 45.80 Salary: $6,400)

Let’s take the mother of all punts for our low-tier pick on Camilo Villegas, a player with a round of 63 at Riviera under his belt.

Okay, so the rest of his round in 2016 didn’t quite go as well and he ended up in T37, but that backed up a T30 from 12 months prior to that so we’re willing to go on record as saying this is a stretch that suits him.

The Colombian really prospers with his irons, ranking 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 44th for SG: T2G this season, so he could – theoretically at least – improve on his previous Riviera best.

There’s a certain amount of form in place too.  He was embroiled in that lengthy playoff at the RSM Classic earlier in the season you may recall, and has largely carried that form through: with a T24 at the WM Phoenix Open the standout.

What we love about Villegas is that he is a daily fantasy point-scoring machine; he ranks ninth on Tour for Back 9 Scoring Average and 28th for Birdies or Better.  He should accrue plenty more this week.

Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green – 12th
• Par Breakers – 28th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 44th

Sleeper Pick for the Genesis Open

Jim Furyk (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 34.5, GPFP: 27.60 Salary: $6,700)

Originally we had Steve Stricker pegged for this pick but then he decided to withdraw from the tournament, so instead we have replaced him with another “old-timer” with a princely short game in Jim Furyk.

To be honest, they fit the same profile: Furyk has delivered four consecutive top-25 finishes at Riviera (14-23-13-11) and ranks rather nicely in several key metrics this week.

After wrist surgery “Mr. 58” is still finding his way back to top form, but T6 at the RSM Classic earlier in the season suggests he is ready and willing to contend again.

Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Approach – 1st
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 14th
• Greens in Regulation – 19th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Genesis Open

Luke List (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 61.1, GPFP: 76.41 Salary: $6,400)

We were torn between three players for this lower-priced sleeper pick – List, Kelly Kraft, and Anirban Lahiri – and realistically we couldn’t fault you for drafting any of them (or mixing and matching if you’re running multiple rosters this week).

List gets the nod because he is an excellent daily fantasy points scorer; he hits plenty of greens and goes low on Par 5s, so while he may never have played Riviera before we’re banking on his fine form of earlier this season to return.

He’s missed his last two cuts, but in his last competitive round he made 66; it wasn’t enough to see him through to the weekend at the Farmers, but a nice indicator that all is shaping up okay.  Don’t forget he connected six consecutive top-25 finishes not that many moons ago.

Key Stats:

• Par 5 Scoring – 4th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 21^st
• Greens in Regulation – 50th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineups

Sample Lineup #1 (With DJ)

Sample Lineup #2 (Without DJ)

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2016-2017)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”7.14%” bar_text=”6 out of 84 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”21.43%” bar_text=”18 out of 84 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”39.29%” bar_text=”33 out of 84 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”16.67%” bar_text=”2 out of 12 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”8.33%” bar_text=”1 out of 12 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”71.43″ bar_text=”60 out of 84 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2017 Genesis Open with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram