Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – Arnold Palmer Invitational

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

The 2017 Arnold Palmer Invitational Sleeper Preview

After what feels like a lifetime of multiple champions dominating the PGA TOUR, how refreshing was it to see two talented young stars in the making battling it out for their maiden title on Sunday?

In the end, it was our very own “sleeper” selection Adam Hadwin – the outstanding Canadian who took to the front early on Saturday and never looked back – who picked up his first piece of silverware at the Valspar Championship ahead of another young player, Patrick Cantlay.

Hadwin has his name engraved on the trophy, but in some respects the real winner at Copperhead was Cantlay, a former world number one amateur who recorded the lowest PGA TOUR round in history by a player from outside the paid ranks by firing a 60 at the Travelers’ Championship in 2011.

But years of back injuries and personal tragedy – including witnessing the death of his caddie Chris Roth in a road traffic accident – derailed his comeback until he resurfaced at the AT&T Pebble Beach earlier in the year.  And the rest, as they say, is history.  Like with another fine player who has battled back from the brink, Nick Watney, it will be interesting to see how far Cantlay can go in 2017.

There were few other storylines of note from the Valspar; a tournament that passed by with little interest.  The two Vegas favorites, Justin Thomas and Henrik Stenson, failed to shine – Thomas struggling with a stomach bug picked up in Mexico, Stenson playing his final 54 holes at -1 after opening with a round of 64.  The Swede will have to improve this week at Bay Hill if he wants to hang with such illustrious company in the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

This will be the first staging of the event since the passing of the man himself, and there has been uproar regarding the lack of OWGR top 50 players in the field.  Many consider it to be a soiling of AP’s great legacy that so few could be bothered to make the trip, and you’d have a hard time disagreeing with that ideology.

But those in the field will pay their respects to the great man and get to enjoy the stunning Bay Hill Club too.  Measuring 7,419 yards for its Par 72, Bay Hill has become synonymous with traditional Floridian golf; those without a strong tee-to-green game need not apply.

It was usually a tough old test with its small landing zones and tricky-to-read TifEagle Bermuda Grass greens, but new course superintendent Chris Flynn oversaw an overhaul in 2014 that delivered wider fairways and fewer trees.  The result is that winning scores have improved from an average of -13 in the early 2000s to -19 and -17 in the last two editions.

So there’s lots for this field to look forward to this week, and what a field it is.  Deciding who has the upper hand out of Rory McIlroy, Stenson, and Hideki Matsuyama is a tough task, and then when we add in the returning – and defending champion – Jason Day, recent Honda Classic winner Rickie Fowler and a stack of talented Europeans in Justin Rose, Tyrrell Hatton, Thomas Pieters, and Matt Fitzpatrick; this is going to be an outstanding week of golf, and a fitting tribute to Arnold Palmer’s legacy; no matter about who isn’t here.

So who are this week’s best longshot picks?  Let’s take a look…

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The Arnold Palmer Invitational Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The Arnold Palmer Invitational Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

Martin Kaymer – Vegas Odds 50/1 – In last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational players from the European Tour outweighed their PGA TOUR counterparts 7-4 in the first eleven players home, and so like the WGC Mexico event we can hand them some kind of advantage.

Seemingly well placed to take advantage is Martin Kaymer, although caution is advised given that this will be the German’s first trip to Bay Hill since 2008, when he missed the cut.  But his excellent tee-to-green game should be well suited to this track, and with some handy form under his belt there is no reason why he can’t go well.

In his penultimate start he finished T4 at the Honda Classic, and we expect that Florida Swing form will be crucial this week, where he gained +1.63 strokes on the field from tee-to-green and +0.94 with the short stick.  Kaymer followed that with T23 at WGC Mexico; not bad given that was his first sighting of the track, and but for a third round of 75 he might just have snuck into the top 15 or higher.

Tony Finau – Vegas Odds 50/1 – Finau led the field at Copperhead in strokes gained: tee to green (+3.398), and that was just one of the factors behind his final round of 64; comfortably the best of the day and which catapulted him into fourth spot.

That was his third top-10 finish in seven starts, and we can’t be the only ones thinking that a second PGA TOUR title isn’t far away.

He can be something of an all-or-nothing merchant – among his good form has been two missed cuts at Riviera and Scottsdale, but of late he has generally given sports bettors a good run for their money.

Tommy Fleetwood – Vegas Odds 66/1 – Another leap of faith given that Fleetwood’s Stateside experience is minimal, but nobody on the European Tour has been better from tee to green than the Englishman in the past six months or so, and so this Bay Hill test should suit him down to the ground.

His most recent outing was his most noteworthy to date: second at the WGC Mexico event and just one shot behind the eventual champion Dustin Johnson.

For those unfamiliar with his work that was no fluke – he won the prestigious HSBC Championship in Abu Dhabi in January – so confidence is at an all-time high.  That should propel him to another strong showing here.

Jason Kokrak – Vegas Odds 90/1 – You wonder if watching fellow Canadian Adam Hadwin collect his maiden PGA TOUR title will have had some kind of effect on Kokrak?  Maybe not, but there will be plenty that tell you this big guy is long overdue some silverware.

Maybe Bay Hill will be the scene; he loves playing here anyway, as course form of 20-6-4 attests.  That will probably lead to high ownership among your fellow gamers but hey, this is the name of the game.

Some decent enough recent form at Riviera and Pebble Beach (where he opened with 77 before finishing T23) means Kokrak can’t slide under the radar this week, but that’s fine: he gained +1.459 strokes on the field on the approach last week, and so that all-important short game appears to be in good shape.

Billy Horschel – Vegas Odds 100/1 – Of all the critics of those who have chosen not to attend this week, Billy Ho has been one of the most vocal, and as such will have extra motivation to put in a big showing this week.

It’s been a fairly lean time for Horschel since he won the FedExCup in 2015, but a playoff loss at the RSM Classic at the tailend of last year, plus a T4 at the Honda Classic a couple of weeks ago, suggests that there is underlying form there.

His short game was outstanding at PGA National, so this week might be the time that Horschel cashes some of the checks that his outspoken opinions write.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the 2017 Arnold Palmer Invitational here.

Cover photo via Instagram