European Tour Fantasy Golf Predictions – 2018 Omega Dubai Desert Classic

2018 Omega Dubai Desert Classic Fantasy Preview

The European Tour’s Desert Swing got off to a fantastic start at last week’s Abu Dhabi Championship, and in among the big names who made their way to the Middle East it was a rather more low-key player who got his hands on the trophy.

Despite 2017 being the best year of his life both out on the course and in his personal life, there is still an unabashed modesty and almost shyness about Tommy Fleetwood. But put a golf club in his hand and the Englishman comes alive.

After claiming the Race to Dubai title last year, Fleetwood continued where he left off by lifting the Abu Dhabi Championship trophy following a thrilling climax.

At the 54-hole mark he was in contention alongside the likes of Rory McIlroy – it was so good to see him somewhere near his best – as well as Dustin Johnson and Paul Casey; not bad company to be in.

Henrik Stenson of Sweden plays a shot on the tenth hole during round…

Henrik Stenson of Sweden plays a shot on the tenth hole during round one of the Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship at Abu Dhabi Golf Club on January 18, 2018 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

And it was Fleetwood who confirmed his ability to sit comfortably with the game’s elite to card a final round of 65 to take the title by two shots from Ross Fisher.

It was a great way to start the Desert Swing, and there should be no let-up this week either at the Dubai Desert Classic: with Fleetwood, McIlroy, Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Branden Grace….what’s not to like?!

The action will unfold on the Majlis course at the Emirates Golf Club, a flat and exposed layout that could well be pummeled by the stiff winds that sometimes arise in this part of the world. Correlations with Links golf are not that hard to find.

This Par 72 layout measures 7,328 yards and features Bermuda greens and a smattering of water hazards, although by and large tee shots go unpunished by the forgivingly short rough. Three of the four Par 5s are on the back nine, so we can expect a grandstand finish to proceedings on Sunday.

But who do we expect to be in the mix heading down the back straight? Let’s have a look…

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This Week’s Omega Dubai Desert Classic Fantasy Picks & Predictions

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This Week’s Omega Dubai Desert Classic Fantasy Picks

Henrik Stenson – $10,300 – In a slightly controversial move, we’re going to temporarily eschew the advice given above and instead opt for a player with an aversion to using the big stick off the tee.

But it should be noted that Henrik Stenson is an exception to the rule as he lived in Dubai for a number of years, becoming accustomed to the unique conditions and establishing a fondness for the curvature of this Majlis layout.

The Swede has not missed a trip here in 12 years, even playing when injured in 2016, and that is an identifier of his love for the course and the people here. Those dozen visits have yielded just a single missed cut and a win in 2007, with six other top-10 finishes including 2-6 in the past two years.

Not everyone is in the ‘course form’ camp as far as drafting their rosters is concerned, but Stenson’s current form is good enough to travel. Just two players played a round of 65 on Sunday in Abu Dhabi: the champion and Stenson himself. Afterwards he was effusive about how well he had played, and that confidence – ahead of a trip to a course he loves – is course for excitement.

Tyrrell Hatton – $9,600 – Hatton opened his Desert Swing account with a T15 finish in Abu Dhabi, where he played solidly all week before finishing on a high with a round of 68.

The Englishman’s stats were solid across the board, finding plenty of fairways and greens in regulation, and if he can make a few more putts this week then another week of success in Dubai beckons.

Hatton has finished in the top-10 in each of his last two visits to Majlis (T3 last year, T8 twelve months pitot to that), and he will be looking to get his hands on some early season silverware this week.

You suspect that the Ryder Cup narrative will become quite tiresome given that we are still what feels like an eternity away from the extravaganza, but clever players know they need to bank as many actual Race to Dubai points – and ‘merit points’ in the eyes of Thomas Bjorn – at courses they know and love.

Ryan Fox – $7,800 – Bombs away! Ryan Fox is one of the longest drivers on the European Tour, and he should enjoy playing a stretch where any errant tee shots aren’t too severely punished by the rough.

He found fewer than 50% of fairways in Abu Dhabi, but his brilliant putting stroke (he ranked fourth for Putts Per Round) is hugely significant seeing as though he hardly gave himself the best chance of breaking par from tee to green.

So, by the powers of deduction, if the Kiwi doesn’t need to worry about sticky rough in Dubai, and is putting well, then the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle fit neatly into place.

Indeed, his T4 return at the BMW SA Open in his penultimate start is an indicator of what Fox can do when the layout suits.

Scott Hend – $7,500 – The Aussie returned to a semblance of form in Abu Dhabi, ranking fourth for GIR (an excellent 81%) despite finding just 37.5% of fairways. The takeaway point? Hend’s irons are dialed in whether he’s playing from the fairway, the rough, the bushes or the trees!

As mentioned, the rough stuff is less penal at Majlis, and so we don’t have to worry about his errant bombs causing too much damage.

Hend’s course form is something of a mixed bag, but we do have T8 and T14 in amongst it all, and if he plays as well as he did from rough-to-green (an idea for a new statistical metric!) then he can replicate that kind of finish.

Nicolas Colsaerts – $7,300 – Another whose mid-ranking finish (T32) in Abu Dhabi doesn’t tell the whole story is Nicolas Colsaerts, who was outstanding from tee-to-green but who simply could not make a putt.

So by that token there is an element of the risk and reward about drafting the Belgian here: if he improves on the greens then he has an excellent chance of shooting some low numbers at a track that should suit his power game.

A T9 finish here back in 2012 is indicative of what Colsaerts could achieve around this stretch, and you don’t have to go quite so far back as that to see flashes of excellent recent form (T2 at the Turkish Airlines Open in November).

Andrew Johnston – $6,900 – Andrew ‘Beef’ Johnston has spoken of late of a lack of focus in 2017; the natural consequence of becoming something of a cult favorite on both sides of the pond.

The smile and the big personality should not overshadow a guy who is a fine golfer by anybody’s measure: you don’t win at Valderrama, as Johnston did in 2016, if you can’t play the game.

So the new year has brought with it a determination on Beef’s part to right the wrongs of last season, and he has set about making amends in fine fashion: finishing T9 at the Abu Dhabi Championship and ranking fourth for GIR.

Long enough off the tee to hang with the big boys, it is only going to take a small improvement on the greens for Johnston to record another top-10 finish.

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