Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – The U.S. Open

2018 U.S. Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

After a tantalizing build-up these past few weeks, the US Open is finally almost upon us.

Without wanting to go over-the-top with hyperbole – this is an event that promotes itself, the 2018 edition of the toughest tournament in golf really could be one to savor.

Many of the best players in the world are bang in form, and a visit to a typically unused venue (Shinnecock Hills hasn’t been on rotation since the 2004 US Open) always brings with it challenges and surprises. Tiger, Phil, the Justins, Dustin, Rickie, Bubba, Phil, Jordan….you know that some if not all the major suspects will be in the frame come Sunday.

Dustin Johnson fist bumps fans along the ninth hole during the final…

Dustin Johnson fist bumps fans along the ninth hole during the final round of the FedEx St. Jude Classic at TPC Southwind on June 10, 2018 in Memphis, Tennessee. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

First, they will need to tame a Shinnecock layout that, on paper at least, doesn’t look too tricky despite prior US Opens held here being a real grind. The fairways are wide – 41 yards in some places, according to reports – and that gives everyone a chance of keeping their ball in the short stuff.

Indeed, we expect the bombers to flourish on Long Island. This is a long old Par 70 layout at 7,445 yards, and with just two par 5s to play with it’s clear that there are some rather meaty par 4s to tame. The fact that most in the field will be able to free their arms with driver in hand gives them a chance of playing into these small, fast Poa Annua greens with wedge or short iron in hand; a tangible advantage over those attacking from a lower trajectory.

Another factor is wind….lots of it. Shinnecock Hills has a real Linksy feel to it, and that vibe is punctuated further by the fact that there are few if any trees on this layout. As we know, no trees means plenty of exposure to the wind, and the early forecast suggests there will be some pretty testing gusts in force on Thursday and Friday in particular.

And, lest we forget, the pressures of winning a major can reduce a grown man to rubble. Holding your nerve is as important as holding the club correctly this week.

Recent history suggests that finding a ‘sleeper’ winner is going to be difficult: in the past six years, only one champion – Webb Simpson in 2012 – was priced at 50/1 or higher. But there have been other examples, such as Lucas Glover in 2009 and Michael Campbell in 2005, of shock winners, so let’s not give up the ghost just yet.

On that note, here are our sleeper plays for the 2018 US Open:

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The U.S. Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The U.S. Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

Paul Casey – Vegas Odds 50/1 – It’s very rare that you can back a player as classy as Paul Casey at sportsbook odds of 50/1, so let’s take the opportunity.

With 18 professional wins, the most recent coming in March, and nine major top-10 finishes, Casey has all the credentials to finally get over the line in a big event.

Looking at his career resumé you might assume that The Masters is his best chance of winning a major, but there are top-10s to his name in the British Open and that Links effect could be very handy this week.

Casey has won in Texas, Abu Dhabi and Ireland, so the wind won’t present any problems, and his excellent ball striking off the tee – he ranks 14th for Total Driving – should keep him in play and with some more agreeable approaches to make than many in the field.

A decent grinder as proven by his rank of 25th for Bogey Avoidance, Casey has won and bagged two other top-10s this term at scores of -10 or lower, and that confirms he is willing to bide his time until the birdie opportunities come along – could that be crucial this week?

Bubba Watson – Vegas Odds 55/1 – When Shinnecock Hills last hosted the US Open in 2014, there were three left-handers inside the top-10; a remarkable stat when you think about the tiny ratio of lefties on the Tour.

Was that merely coincidence? Possibly, but you also have to consider that the left-to-right dogleg of a number of this layout’s holes do lend themselves to the left hander’s draw.

Bubba is as good a shot shaper as anyone on the planet – proven by his win at Riviera earlier this season, and while his US Open record is fairly poor we cannot discount a player with two major titles to his name who has won twice and has two other top-10s to his name in the past four months.

Francesco Molinari – Vegas Odds 66/1 – Long, straight hitting is the modus operandi on Long Island this week, and there are few better exponents of that in world golf than Francesco Molinari.

If he was slightly better with the flat stick the Italian would undoubtedly have more than seven professional titles to his name, and that lack of feel with the putter will ultimately prove to be Molinari’s downfall on many more occasions to come.

But what a ball striker he is….and what good form he is in too. He won the European Tour’s BMW PGA Championship just a couple of weeks ago, and then finished second in his home Italian Open a week later despite playing comfortably well enough to win- that’s how good Thorbjorn Olesen was.

We talk about ‘bottle,’ character or whatever you want to call it, and while Molinari has never shown his best on American soil he has shown the poise to win in front of his adoring home fans. That will stand him in good stead if he gets into the mix at Shinnecock Hills.

Jimmy Walker – Vegas Odds 100/1 – With his battle with Lyme disease seemingly won, Jimmy Walker is back playing the kind of golf that has won him a major in the past.

An uptrend in form started at Pebble Beach – happily one of our potential correlating courses with Shinnecock, and continued through The Masters (T20), the Texas Open (solo fourth), THE PLAYERS Championship (T2) and Byron Nelson (T6).

He’s a six-time PGA TOUR winner, with triumphs at venues we might consider to have similarities with Shinnecock Hills at Pebble Beach and Waialae. He has major pedigree too, having won the 2016 PGA Championship and recorded other top-10s, and that, coupled with improved health and form, makes Walker a live contender this week.

Emiliano Grillo – Vegas Odds 125/1 – It would be a huge surprise if Emiliano Grillo’s long wait for a trophy ended at the US Open, but stranger things have happened and the Argentine is certainly in the kind of form to make it a reality.

He’s only missed one cut this season and has five top-10s to his name; two of which have come in his last four starts. Grillo’s form is travelling across state borders and course types, and yet it’s at tests like Shinnecock Hills where he should really come into his own.

Accurate off the tee, Grillo finds plenty of greens as a result, and if he could just harness a strong putting performance for four good rounds he would surely end a title drought that dates back to 2016.

Whether it happens on Long Island is anybody’s guess, but at a three-figure price punters are getting a young star in the making in a rich vein of form.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for U.S. Open here.

Sleeper Report Predictions This Season (2017-2018)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”2.06%” bar_text=”3 out of 145 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”8.96%” bar_text=”13 out of 145 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”25.51%” bar_text=”37 out of 145 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”3.44%” bar_text=”1 out of 29 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”3.44%” bar_text=”1 out of 29 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”61.37″ bar_text=”89 out of 145 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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