Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – The U.S. Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for The U.S. Open

2018 U.S. Open Fantasy Preview

Here we are, then: the US Open, golf’s second major of the calendar year, and a tournament that has a reputation as being the toughest in golf.

Okay, so Brooks Koepka dismantled Erin Hills 12 months ago to finish at -16 and record the joint-lowest winning score in a US Open renewal, but that was fairly a-typical for this spectacular championship and this year’s host, Shinnecock Hills, looks to have a few tricks up its sleeve to toughen the challenge. More on those later.

This column heads into the tournament in decent form after drafting a second winner in as many weeks, although in truth picking Dustin Johnson doesn’t take a work of genius. The man himself said he just needed his putter to click to get over the line, and after switching back to his favored TaylorMade Spider at TPC Southwind it’s no surprise he demolished the field to record a six-shot win in the FedEx St Jude Classic – which included an incredible hole-out on the eighteenth on Sunday.

The victory propelled DJ back up to number one in the world rankings, but even more importantly than that it must surely have confirmed to the man himself that his game is in the right place to challenge for a major on Long Island this week.

Of course, there are plenty who will feel they are in the same boat, and with 156 of the best and/or most in-form players on the planet teeing it up, we look to be in for a treat at Shinnecock Hills this week.

Justin Thomas of the United States walks with Jordan Spieth of the…

Justin Thomas of the United States walks with Jordan Spieth of the United States on the 18th hole during the first round of THE PLAYERS Championship on the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass on May 10,… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Last Week’s Fantasy Results 

Dustin Johnson’s explosive win sealed the deal on back-to-back winners picked and gives us plenty of momentum and confidence heading into this week’s U.S. Open (we had Bryson DeChambeau as our mid-tier pick for The Memorial Tournament last week).

Dustin Johnson poses with the trophy after the final round of the…

Dustin Johnson poses with the trophy after the final round of the FedEx St. Jude Classic at TPC Southwind on June 10, 2018 in Memphis, Tennessee. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

For those who missed it, here’s what we had to say about the once-again OWGR No.1 Dustin Johnson:

There were plenty of good signs for Dustin Johnson at Muirfield Village last week, where his all-round game was in decent shape.

He finished T8, gained strokes on the field in all departments apart from chipping, and posted a closing round of 67; that will give him confidence ahead of the trip south.

TPC Southwind has been a venue that has typically been kind to him through the years. DJ won here in 2012, finished fifth in 2016 and T10 in 2013, so there are plenty of good memories to call upon.

With these low-tier events we talk about motivation; why is so-and-so in the field this week? For Johnson, the answer is simple: he wants his status as the world’s number one golfer back.

He is working hard on his game and wants to be in a position to attack at the US Open, and while there may be some subtle swing changes to bed in if everything clicks for the 17-time PGA TOUR champion he could run away with this tournament at a course he has won at before.

Having Reavie (T6) and Brian Gay (T12) in our lineup also helped boost things over the weekend which allowed our Premium Members to cash in once again.

Could we have a 3-peat coming our way at Shinnecock this week?

The U.S. Open 2018 Field

With the world’s top 60 players according to the OWGR in town, with no injuries or withdrawals (as yet), this year’s US Open is already shaping up to be a classic.

Johnson, McIlroy, Thomas, Spieth, Rose, Day, Rahm….that sextuplet alone has combined to claim six wins worldwide in the past 20 years, and by the end of their careers you wonder how many majors they will have snaffled between them.

There are so many fascinating storylines this week it is hard to know where to start. Can Phil Mickelson finally complete the career grand slam of majors….and in doing so become the oldest US Open champion of all time?

Can Brooks Koepka become the first man to successfully defend a US Open title since Curtis Strange in 1988-89?

Can Patrick Reed, the perennial ‘sleeper’ in majors, rack up a second big win in a matter of months?

Has Tiger got the game to get his hands on another piece of major silverware?

It really is a fascinating field that will descend upon Long Island, and to write about all those with a genuine shout of winning the 2018 US Open would simply take an eternity!

Tiger Woods of the United States and Phil Mickelson of the United…

Tiger Woods of the United States and Phil Mickelson of the United States stand on the 16th green during the second round of THE PLAYERS Championship on the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass on May 11,… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

This Week’s Course Preview

The beauty of the US Open is that it typically takes us on a tour of some of the finest golf properties that America has to offer – Chambers Bay, stand down, and Shinnecock Hills looks set to add to that fine tradition this week. This is one of the oldest golf courses in the States – built way back in 1892 – and yet it should test the skills and equipment of the modern player more than a century later.

First things first, head over to Google Images and type in Shinnecock Hills….you might be surprised by what you see. The Links feel is obvious, and actually if you didn’t know otherwise you might think that the layout was in the UK such is its classic feel. That is an interesting jump-off point this week.

It’s a pretty long stretch too at 7,445 yards for its Par 70, and as is often the case the United States Golf Association – which oversees the US Open – is likely to try and lengthen these further as their typical first line of defence.

Shinnecock Hills is almost entirely treeless, as is in keeping with the Links vibe, and with the layout being largely flat that means there is very little shelter for the players. Such exposure will lead to the wind, which is almost omnipresent on Long Island, presenting quite the challenge for the field.

There are other defences too, both deliberate and incidental. There are a number of doglegging holes, particularly from left-to-right, and so the right-handers will need to have their fade on point this week. Also, the small and fast Poa Annua greens will require precision approach play, with a tiny landing area with minimal margin for error.

And then there are the incidental conditions: the fairways and greens are typically super-hard. If you can recall what feels like a lifetime ago, back in 2004, when Shinnecock Hills last hosted a US Open you might remember officials watering the greens in-between groups; that’s how firm they were back then. You wouldn’t expect them to make the same mistake again, but be mindful that these greens will be like cement, and that holding long irons will be incredibly difficult.

The other key point to note is the surprising generosity off the tee. Many that have walked the course have paced out the fairways, with a rough guide of 41 yards reported. That is incredibly generous for a US Open stretch, and while the rough and native grasses are likely to be long and extremely penal, it would appear that there is less likelihood of getting into trouble off the tee as we might otherwise expect.

Shinnecock Hills doesn’t have cutesy names for its holes nor any distinguishable features, but here’s one thing we do love: the routing. Only two holes – nine and ten – face in the same direction, which means that each time you step up to the tee box you are going to be faced with a new challenge in terms of wind speed and direction. That makes course management and club selection uber important, and with holes ranging from par 3s we would consider to be short to long par 4s, pretty much every club in the bag is going to get a workout this week.

Here’s a quick hole-by-hole playbook:

Hole 1 – Par 4, 399 yards: The first hole of a major and the first risk-and-reward hole! If playing downwind the green can be reached off the tee by the bigger hitters, although thick rough awaits right and left. Otherwise, it’s a rescue club off the tee followed by a wedge in; a real birdie opportunity awaits from a decent strike off the peg.

Hole 2 – Par 3, 252 yards: From the sublime to the ridiculous; trying to hold a small green from a 250-yard approach is almost sadistic, although the silver lining is that there aren’t any hazards to carry and so a decent strike with the longest of irons can bump and roll its way towards the dancefloor.

Hole 3 – Par 4, 500 yards: A long, straight drive is key here: the fairway is expected to be one of the narrowest on the course, and the bombers will have an advantage of a flat lie if they can carry the hill. Those not long enough to climb the slope will be left with the ball above their feet on approach.

Hole 4 – Par 4, 475 yards: A new tee-box has added 40 yards since 2004, and with this hole playing mostly into the wind it is set to be a stern test in 2018. Gently doglegging to the right, bunkers protect the right-hand side of the fairway to prevent the corner being cut too much.

Hole 5 – Par 5, 589 yards: Historically, Shinnecock’s first par 5 has largely played downwind, and so the longer hitters should be able to reach the green in two. Run off areas will gobble up any errant approaches and kick them down into the collection area, which presents a tough up-and-down.

Hole 6 – Par 4, 491 yards: Head left off the tee and you should have an easier approach in; go too far right and your ball will disappear into seriously deep fescue grass. That’s the risky play here in one of the few blind tee shots on the course.

Hole 7 – Par 3, 189 yards: Those who have played ‘Shinny’ have said that a high, soft approach into seven is key – playing a 7-iron in is much more preferable to four or five, and so once more the longer hitters should have an advantage. Otherwise, the undulating green could yield a few three-putts.

Hole 8 – Par 4, 439 yards: This is one of the course’s few run-of-the-mill holes, and with a wide fairway offering plenty of options you would expect the best in the world to create a birdie chance here.

Hole 9 – Par 4, 485 yards: With the clubhouse in the background and a blind tee shot to negotiate, most players will use a sightline of a window or feature of the clubhouse to ensure their tee shot goes where they want it to! The fairway meanders right to left and back again, and a back right pin position could be devilish to find.

Hole 10 – Par 4, 415 yards: The back nine commences with another risk-and-reward stretch: drive to the bottom of the hill along a narrow chute of short grass, 350+ yards, to leave a wedge in, or lay up to leave a 150-yard approach into a green below your feet?

Hole 11 – Par 3, 159 yards: This hole, which is largely untouched from the original designs, is similar to 12 at Augusta: find the middle of the green, otherwise will race away down the close-mowed run-off areas.

Hole 12 – Par 4, 469 yards: Here’s a chance to make birdie – one of the few obvious scoring holes on the course. The tee shot is fairly straightforward and leaves an 8 or 9-iron into a flat green; most will be disappointed to not make a red number here.

Hole 13 – Par 4, 374 yards: Again, this is a driveable par 4 but there are bunkers short left and right….and you really don’t want to overshoot the runway here either.

Hole 14 – Par 4, 519 yards: Pound for pound the longest hole on the course, and one of the narrowest fairways to find too. Anything sliced right here will require a lay-up, and at that point par becomes a struggle.

Hole 15 – Par 4, 409 yards: With the green being so well protected by bunkers, it is essential to find the fairway off the tee, so expect most to club down here especially from what is an elevated tee.

Hole 16 – Par 5, 616 yards: The USGA are famous for using length as their key defence, and here they have added some 75 yards courtesy of a new tee box. The bombers should be able to clear the bunkers to the left off the fairway, which opens up better angles into the green, but shorter hitters will struggle to get there in two from a safer position on the right.

Hole 17 – Par 3, 180 yards: Here’s an interesting hole where the players really struggle to get an accurate read on the wind; hence Mickelson’s double-bogey here in 2004. It’s a fairly straightforward shot in if you can judge the breeze correctly.

Hole 18 – Par 4, 485 yards: Dreams will be shattered and hopes fulfilled at the last, and it’s a hole that could provide plenty of drama come Sunday. An approach of roughly 200 yards into a sloping green will test the nerve of any potential US Open champion, and a green with subtle breaks and turns could deliver an awesome finish in front of a packed grandstand.

In short, Shinnecock Hills presents a thorough examination of a player’s all-round game, and as such is the perfect host for the US Open.

Polarising filter used on the camera in this image; The 616 yards par…

Polarising filter used on the camera in this image; The 616 yards par 5, 16th hole “Shinnecock” at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club the host venue for the 2018 US Open Championship on October 4, 2017 in… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Weather Forecast for Southhampton, NY

There has been a few thundery downpours predicted in the lead-up to Thursday’s first tee, but those don’t appear to be heavy enough to alter what will be a hard and fast course.

Otherwise, the forecast at this early stage is the same across all four days: plenty of sunshine when the clouds break, with temperatures at roughly 27°C.

The key point to note here is the wind gusts: Thursday and Friday in particular could have some teeth.

But the weekend is set fair according to the long-range forecast, and we might just see some low scores come in which could really shake up the leaderboard heading into the business end of the tournament.

Last Year’s Results from The U.S. Open

Last year’s US Open was one which the record books will strike through as something of an anomaly given how ‘easy’ conditions were….not that Brooks Koepka could give a rat’s ass.

He claimed the first major title of his career simply by playing excellent golf; never lower than T4 after an opening round of 67, Koepka followed up with 70 on a tougher Friday and 68 on Saturday to see him enter the final round one shot behind 54-hole leader Brian Harman, with messrs Thomas, Fowler and Fleetwood also in contention.

He closed with a sublime 67, which included three straight birdies from 14-16, to win by four from Harman and Hideki Matsuyama, with Tommy Fleetwood in solo fourth and Bill Haas, Xander Schauffele and Rickie Fowler all tied up in fifth.

Brooks Koepka win the 2017 U.S. Open: Final Round Highlights

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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for The U.S. Open this Week

The majors are naturally a great time to get stuck into some first-class DFS action, and with chances to win a million big ones – as well as a number of other big prizes – the US Open slate of contests is shaping up to be a cracker.

Here’s two examples to get you started:

• PGA $3.5M Fantasy Golf Millionaire: We wait all season for rare opportunities like this, so take your $20 and see if you can beat the 205k strong field to be able to call yourself a millionaire. Finish inside the top 1000 and you will trouser a still handsome $120 at the very least.
• PGA $100k Birdie: If you are working in slightly financial constraints then there is still plenty of cash to be made this week, and this $100k Birdie contest offers a top prize of $10k in a field of 40k players. Finish inside the top 25% to turn a profit.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for The U.S. Open

‘Today was my first walk ever around Shinnecock Hills. I will say this with confidence. Long hitters will have the advantage and one of em will hoist the trophy.’

That was a tweet put out by Ted Scott, Bubba Watson’s caddie and a man who has been on the bag for some hugely impressive victories. Basically, he knows what he’s talking about.

Our course run-through confirmed the point too, and so really we are looking at the longer hitters to enjoy an edge this week.

But this is a US Open, and nobody is going to get a free pass no matter how far they can hit that tiny white ball. Keeping it in play is essential as there is some pretty nasty-looking fescue and native grass mounds out there, so Total Driving and Strokes Gained: Off the Tee statistics – principally from events that were driver heavy – are key building blocks.

Hit lots of greens or scramble like a demon; that goes without saying. But again, length off the tee will lead to shorter approaches, and with such fast Poa Annua greens to work with utilizing spin from wedges should prove to be essential in avoiding bogeys and fashioning the occasional birdie look.

Don’t discount that Links, erm, link either. Corey Pavin and Retief Goosen have both won at Shinnecock, and they have a rich history in the British Open, while the runners up to those guys were Greg Norman and Phil Mickelson; a duo with three major titles between them on the British Links. The likes of Tom Lehmann, Nick Price, Vijay Singh, Ernie Els and Chris DiMarco, who have all won or finished second in the British Open, have also all appeared prominently on leaderboards at Shinnecock Hills.

Also, don’t forget to utilize our fantasy tools such as our GPFP and Key Stats Indicator to round out your rosters this week.  Key Stats allows you to sort and rank players in the current event’s field.  This example shows a search in the field for players who average 300 yards per drive, have above 63% in scrambling percentage, and 67% in GIR.

Our GPFP matrix will help you break it down even further. In this example, we looked for excellent short game players in the $7600 – $8200 range.

There is an obvious West Coast link here too, with Pavin winning and Mickelson finishing second. Playing in the wind, and comfort on Poa Annua, are two worthy strings to the bow, and we’re happy enough to suggest that will be a bonus this week – form at Pebble Beach, a former US Open host, may also be worth a second look.

Don’t worry about backing a few maidens, though: 10 of the last 13 US Open champions were picking up their first major trophy!

Lastly, here’s another fun fact: three of the top-ten at the 2004 US Open were left-handers: Mickelson, Mike Weir and Steve Flesch. That can’t be mere coincidence, and time and time again we see lefties do well at tracks with left-to-right doglegs: Bubba’s win at Riviera and Ted Potter’s triumph at Pebble Beach this season are testament to that. Perhaps there is more to that than meets the eye….

Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The U.S. Open

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2017-2018)

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