Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – The Travelers Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for The Travelers Championship

2018 Travelers Championship Fantasy Preview

Carnage. That’s the best way to describe last week’s US Open at Shinnecock Hills.

Brooks Koepka successfully defended the title he won at Erin Hills 12 months ago, and to give an indication as to how different the two events were the 28-year-old won with a score some 15 shots worse than his winning tally a year ago.

All power to Koepka though, who had hinted that he had lost his love for the game prior to a three-month injury layoff earlier in the season. Absence makes the heart grow fonder and all that, and he became the first man in three decades to successfully retain the US Open title.

We have hurtled into the second half of 2018, and that means we can start looking towards the last two majors of the year and the thrilling conclusion to the FedExCup race. There’s also the small matter of a Ryder Cup to enjoy.

How do you follow up the second major of the year? It’s a tough ask, but the Travelers Championship will offer a decent attempt. Played the picturesque TPC River Highlands, which is rather more birdie-friendly than Shinnecock Hills, those in the field who teed up on Long Island last week will have a shot at instant redemption.

And a major-standard field will assemble in Connecticut too, which hints at a thoroughly enjoyable way to usher in the second half of the season.

Jordan Spieth of the United States celebrates with caddie Michael…

Jordan Spieth of the United States celebrates with caddie Michael Greller after chipping in for birdie from a bunker on the 18th green to win the Travelers Championship in a playoff against Daniel… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Last Week’s Fantasy Results 

The best players in the world struggled on a tough golf course, but in the end the Koepka/Fleetwood/Johnson combo was the three-horse finish we needed; with a little Patrick Reed sprinkled in.

Our top picks last week included Dustin Johnson, who looked to have the tournament in his back pocket going into the weekend, and our top sleeper pick Patrick Reed who made a dramatic charge up the leaderboard on Sunday.  But ultimately none could keep pace with the reigning U.S. Open Champ, Brooks Koepka.

Brooks Koepka of the United States celebrates with the U.S. Open…

Brooks Koepka of the United States celebrates with the U.S. Open Championship trophy after winning the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club on June 17, 2018 in Southampton, New York. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

In last week’s segment we highlighted Ted Scott’s comment heading into Shinnecock Hills where he said, “today was my first walk ever around Shinnecock Hills. I will say this with confidence. Long hitters will have the advantage and one of em will hoist the trophy.”

That prediction proved to be eerily accurate, as the always-long Koepka finished second in driving distance, behind Ryan Fox (318.8, T41) on the tourney.

The Travelers Championship 2018 Field

A week after a major, it is unusual to see such a high-profile field emerge.

But Brooks Koepka will get straight back at it this following his celebrations, where he will be joined by one of the men who challenged him hardest on Sunday, Patrick Reed.

A trio who missed the cut at Shinnecock Hills – this week’s defending champion Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy and Jason Day – should at least have some gas in the tank after taking the weekend off, while Justin Thomas will be looking to rebound after a below-par T25 by his own expectations.

Bubba Watson, a two-time Travelers champion, will be joined by fellow former winners in Marc Leishman, Russell Knox and Kevin Streelman, while Daniel Berger will be looking to one better after losing out to Spieth in a playoff 12 months ago.

Jonas Blixt, of Sweden, on 16 during the final round of the Travelers…

Jonas Blixt, of Sweden, on 16 during the final round of the Travelers Championship on June 25 at TPC River Highlands in Cromwell, Connecticut. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

This Week’s Course Preview

From the ridiculous to the sublime, as the saying doesn’t go. Shinnecock Hills barely budged an inch in terms of complexity across the four rounds, so the players can breathe a sigh of relief that TPC River Highlands is rather more forgiving.

This is one of the shortest courses on the PGA TOUR: a relatively minuscule 6,840 yards for its Par 70, and this original Robert Ross design was given the Pete Dye treatment in a full overhaul back in 1982.

The greens are Bentgrass and on the small side, and that is the course’s chief defense really with the trees that line the fairways largely managing to keep the winds at bay.

There is a slightly tougher trio of holes known as the ‘Golden Triangle’ from 15-17, and these wind around a giant lake that of course tests the ball striking of any potential winner come Sunday afternoon. Sixteen and seventeen require approaches to be hit over the lake, so nerves of steel are required.

There are only two Par 5s at River Highlands, but to be honest that doesn’t seem to affect the scoring. Most of the recent winners have reached mid-teens under par, while Jim Furyk famously carded a round of 58 here back in 2016. With countless other rounds of 60/61, it is fair to say that this is a second-shot course that is wholly beatable.

Weather Forecast for Cromwell, CT

As further relief for those still shaking with fear from the winds that battered Shinnecock Hills, the weather conditions are set rather more fair in Cromwell this week.

It will be mostly sunny, with an early forecast of a few spots of rain on Sunday. Temperatures will hover around the 80 degree mark.

There will be winds around but only at the 8-10 mph mark, and with more trees at River Highlands than Shinnecock there will be some shelter.

Last Year’s Results from The Travelers Championship

Jordan Spieth won wire-to-wire last year after an opening round of 63 propelled him to the top of the leaderboard. He did, however, need a playoff to overcome the challenge of Daniel Berger.

He led all the way and held a one-shot lead over 300/1 hopeful Boo Weekley heading into the final round. But a final effort of 70 wasn’t quite enough to get the job done, as Berger made three birdies in his last six holes to force extra time.

You may just recall what happened on the first playoff hole when Spieth chipped in out of the bunker – followed by that famous ‘chest bump’ celebration with caddie Michael Greller. Berger almost made a clutch 50-foot putt to stay in the contest, but in the end Spieth’s name was on the trophy; his tenth PGA TOUR win prior to turning 24 – an accolade he shares with Tiger Woods.

Charley Hoffman and Danny Lee were locked at T3, with Weekley, Patrick Reed and Paul Casey rounding out the top five.

Jordan Spieth’s incredible bunker shot to win Travelers

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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for The Travelers Championship this Week

There is a feeling of the calm after the storm for the DFS sites too, although there is still plenty of prize money on the table this week.

• PGA $500k Drive the Green: There’s a top prize of $100k available to the winner here, and you wonder if this might be a good week for attacking the big cash events. In the words of Donald Rumsfeld, there are plenty of ‘known unknowns’ this week!
• PGA $40k Albatross: This is a single-entry contest with just under 4,000 players, so opportunity knocks. The winner will pocket a cool $4k!

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for The Travelers Championship

The bad news for fans of trends and historical patterns is that there is no single way of achieving success at TPC River Highlands.

Take the last six winners, for example. You’ve got two major champions (Spieth, Bubba), one nearly major champion (Marc Leishman), a noted wind player (Russell Knox) and two short and straight ball-strikers (Kevin Streelman, Ken Duke). Some of those guys are accurate off the tee, others slightly more wild and carefree.

So there is no template off the peg for success here, and so we can surmise that this is very much a second shot, GIR-centric layout.

With the ease of the course, this is to all intents and purposes a putting contest; aided and abetted by getting your ball as close to the hole as possible on approach. Statistically speaking, Par 4 Scoring is the obvious foundation this week given that conditions are easy and there are only two Par 5s to work with.

How does the US Open affect our thinking? Last year’s correlation was something of an anomaly given how easy the major played at Erin Hills, but you do wonder if the war of attrition at Shinnecock Hills – and the subsequent 125-mile trip – will be a factor this week. Perhaps backing those who didn’t feature on Long Island, or at least had an early finish, might be wise.

We’re always happy to look to Pete Dye links across his courses, too. Spieth had previously come second at Whistling Straits in the 2015 PGA Championship, while Weekley is a two-time champion at one of Dye’s most famed designs, Harbour Town Links, which hosts the RBC Heritage.

Dig through the history books and you’ll find plenty of River Highland-Harbour Town correlations, and even TPC Sawgrass offers some insight: Sergio Garcia, KJ Choi, Davis Love III, Scott Verplank, David Toms and Streelman have all won or finished second at both venues since the year 2000.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The Travelers Championship

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The Travelers Championship

Top Tier Pick #1: 

Justin Thomas (Odds: 12/1, FPPG: 89.6, GPFP: 116.44 Salary: $11,500)

It was a strange week at the US Open for Justin Thomas, who flew almost completely under the radar to a T25 finish.

That’s not exactly what he would have been hoping for from his tilt at the major, but then he didn’t do any harm to his game – psychological, or the physical ills of a golf swing completely falling apart – and that has to be taken as a positive.

Thomas actually gained +1.13 strokes on the field from tee-to-green, which confirms he took to the Shinnecock challenge better than most, and so heading to rather easier climes we can at least rely upon the fact that the former world number one is still in decent order.

We recognize River Highlands as a second shot course, and this is an area where JT really thrives. The improvement in his iron play in the past year or so has been remarkable, and he genuinely is one of the best approach play merchants on the planet these days.

There should be no US Open hangover for a player who had an okay-ish week, and as somebody who has won more titles than anyone else in elite golf in the past 12 months it always pays to have him on-side in a contest that appears fairly open.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 2nd
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 5th
• SG: Approach – 8th

Top-Tier Pick #2:

Webb Simpson (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 70.2, GPFP: 81.47 Salary: $9,100)

There was an almost immediate return to form for Webb Simpson last week.

After missing the cut at the Fort Worth Invitational, THE PLAYERS Championship winner was somewhere near his best in banking a top-ten in the US Open on the back of an excellent rough/fairway-green display.

It’s always telling when a player saves their best round for last – as Simpson did at Shinnecock Hills – and he can head north with confidence this week.

With top-fives in his last pair of Pete Dye appearances – a winner at Sawgrass, T5 at Harbour Town, and the indication that he is back to somewhere near their best, Simpson is expected to go well this week.

Key Stats:

• Par 4 Scoring Average – 11th
• SG: Approach – 29th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 33rd

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Russell Knox (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 60.4, GPFP: 76.10 Salary: $8,00)

Knox is on record as saying that a cold flat stick was all that stood between him and further glory on the PGA TOUR, and that makes his staggering improvement on the greens at Shinnecock Hills all the more impressive.

Typically, the Scot throws strokes await with putter in hand, but t the US Open he gained a hugely impressive +1.87 on the greens; ranking fifth among all players who made the cut.

Given that Pete Dye courses tend to suit his eye, there is plenty of excitement in the Scotsman’s camp this week. A former winner here in 2016, Knox routinely plays well at short courses with Dye’s fingerprints all over them.

Key Stats:

• Par 4 Scoring Average – 27th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 45th
• SG: Approach – 58th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Chesson Hadley (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 71.7, GPFP: 57.36 Salary: $7,300)

This River Highlands layout looks to be set up perfectly for Chesson Hadley, and for that reason we are happy enough to ignore a couple of previous missed cuts here.

Excellent from tee to green and decent with the putter, Hadley is at his best at courses where finding greens is easy, because his chipping game leaves a little to be desired.

With T7 and T11 finishes in the RBC Heritage and PLAYERS Championship this term, Hadley is a fine exponent of Pete Dye golf, and having had the weekend off at the US Open he should be refreshed to challenge in Connecticut.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 5th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 8th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 29th

Low-Tier Pick:

Wesley Bryan (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 50.5, GPFP: 40.38 Salary: $7,000)

One of the players who will have benefited most from not playing in the US Open is Wesley Bryan, who found a bit of form last time out and would have been happy not to have his confidence sapped at Shinnecock Hills.

Bryan’s T12 in the St Jude Classic was a season’s best, and featured two rounds of 66 into the bargain.

He is what we might call a ‘second half golfer’. Pretty ropey off the tee, Bryan is excellent with iron, wedge and putter in hand, and around River Highlands that has proven to be a recipe for success through the years.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 28th
• SG: Putting – 29th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 39th

Sleeper Pick for The Travelers Championship

Russell Henley (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 58.6, GPFP: 54.40 Salary: $7,600)

The early going at Shinnecock Hills was dominated by Dustin Johnson, but Russell Henley deserves praise for his efforts in the early stages of the US Open.

He opened with a round of 69 to enjoy a share of the first-round lead, and it was only a Saturday 77 that prevented Henley from racking up a second major top-20 of the season.

The 31-year-old appeared to find something in his game over the weekend of the Memorial Tournament, where a pair of 68s saw him slide quietly up the leaderboard.

Excellent from tee to green last week, Henley is trending in the right direction.

Key Stats:

• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 28th
• SG: Approach-the-Green – 42nd
• Greens in Regulation – 45th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for The Travelers Championship

Anirban Lahiri (Odds: 175/1, FPPG: 56.0, GPFP: 44.78 Salary: $7,300)

Lahiri has been playing some decent stuff lately, with eight of his last twelve rounds being 69 or better.

That hasn’t yielded any particularly high finishes because he continues to throw in one bad round per event, but if he can iron that out then he can certainly better last season’s effort of T17 here, where he had a 63 on the card.

Lahiri delivered three top-10s last season, so he is certainly capable of getting into the mix.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 100-125 yards – 20th
• Total Birdies – 75th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 91st

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2017-2018)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”7.62%” bar_text=”16 out of 210 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”18.57%” bar_text=”39 out of 210 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”37.14%” bar_text=”78 out of 210 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”10.00%” bar_text=”3 out of 30 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”23.33%” bar_text=”7 out of 30 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”75.23%” bar_text=”158 out of 210 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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Cover Photo via Instagram