European Tour Fantasy Golf Predictions – BMW International Open

2018 BMW International Open Preview

After a tumultuous week at the US Open, the European Tour returns to its mainland grind with the BMW International Open at the Gut Larchenhof course in Pulheim, Germany.

Following this event, the Tour dives into three consecutive weeks of Rolex Series action for the Opens of France, Ireland and Scotland, and so this is the last ‘easy’ week to pick up points and prize money for quite some time.

A decent field has assembled in Germany with the obvious standout being Tommy Fleetwood on the back of his US Open heroics. The Englishman fired a final round of 63 – only the sixth player in history to do so in that event – to give himself a genuine chance of lifting a first major title. As it was, Brooks Koepka held firm to deny him the opportunity.

Tommy Fleetwood of England waves from on the 18th green during the…

Tommy Fleetwood of England waves from on the 18th green during the final round of the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club on June 17, 2018 in Southampton, New York. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

How will Fleetwood’s mental approach be at the BMW International Open? He seems to be a laidback character with a sensible head on his shoulders, so we wouldn’t necessarily expect a drop-off in performance levels. However, regular caddie Ian Finnis is taking the week off, and in comes Fleetwood’s dad as bag man. Maybe that is enough just to give him the swerve, although who would be surprised if he can get the job done this week?

There’s also the small matter of Sergio Garcia, too. After a stellar 2017 both personally and professionally, the past couple of months have been a real struggle for the Spaniard out on the course, and he will be desperate to find some form ahead of the business end of the campaign.

For any players in the field who endured the misery of Shinnecock Hills last week, the good news is that Gut Larchenhof is about as far away from that difficulty level as is possible. Henrik Stenson won here at -17 back in 2016 (Gut Larchenhof hosts this event in even-numbered years) and Fabrizio Zanotti at -19 two years prior to that, so we can expect something of a birdie fest this week.

This is a Par 72 layout measuring around 7,230 yards with four Par 5s, including two which are reachable in two for the vast majority of the field. Designed by Jack Nicklaus, this layout lacks his usual difficulty quota and instead is an out-and-out scoring free-for-all. There is some water in play and the wind could be a factor on Thursday and Friday, but really this is a track that could be gobbled up by the players.

It is a less-than-driver course, too, as Stenson showed in 2016. He ranked eighth for Driving Distance at a lower-than-usual distance of 289 yards, but ranked first for Driving Accuracy by crushing a remarkable 83% of fairways. This course was simply built for the Swede.

He isn’t here this week, however, but here are six players who make our draft:

[membership level=”0″]

This Week’s BMW International Open Fantasy Picks & Predictions

You must be a Premium Member to view our exclusive fantasy golf picks.

Already a member?  Sign in Here.

[/membership]

[membership level=”1,2,3″]

This Week’s BMW International Open Fantasy Picks

Andy Sullivan – $10,900 – Nobody makes more birdies on the European Tour than Andy Sullivan; that’s fact, as his haul of 205 this term sees him rank first for Total Birdies and sixth for Birdie Average.

So a shootout is no concern for him, and this is a guy who has recorded a trio of top-10 finishes in his last four starts.

It almost feels as though he is ‘due’ a win: a second round of 72 at the Rocco Forte Open surely cost him the title (he went 67-65-65 otherwise), and at the BMW Italian Open two weeks later he fired 67-68-65-67 to finish T5.

Improving form at Gut Larchenhof (21-33-MC) is another positive sign, and if we assume that Fleetwood is a touch drained after last week’s exploits and Garcia’s best game won’t return in the blink of an eye, then Sullivan is best placed to lift the trophy this week.

Alexander Bjork – $9,200 – The joys of winning his first European Tour title in China have been followed by a couple of so-so performances, but after two weeks off we expect Alexander Bjork to come back strong at a venue that should suit.

The wide fairways will please the Swede, who isn’t the straightest off the tee, but one area where his game really does excel is in the ‘second half of holes’: a brilliant scrambler, Bjork also ranks third on Tour for Strokes Gained: Approach.

Scandinavian players tend to go well at Gut Larchenhof, too. Stenson and Robert Karlsson have won here, while the likes of Thorbjorn Olesen, Peter Hanson, Anders Hansen, Soren Kjeldsen and Thomas Bjorn have all banked top-10s in the past few trips.

Whether coincidental or not, it offers plenty of food for thought for Bjork this week.

Seungsu Han – $7,800 – The American has really impressed on his first full ‘proper’ season as a European Tour player.

He’s baked four top-25 finishes in his last five starts, including T4 at the Oman Open and T9 at Trophee Hassan II, and has followed up with some more decent showings on the Japan Golf Tour in the past few weeks.

Han is something of a birdie-fest fan given that he ranks 35th for Birdie Average, and much of his good work, pleasingly, comes on approach; a category in which he also ranks 35th.

Andrea Pavan – $7,600 – At a venue where comprehensive insight is scarce given its ‘year on, year off’ status, we would like to think the Total Birdies-SG: Approach pairing could yield dividends this week.

Consequently, Andrea Pavan is a must pick as he sits second in the rankings for the first metric and sixth for the latter.

The consistent Italian banked six top-20 finishes between February and May, and after a short period of malaise was back in the mix at the Shot Clock Masters, where he finished T23 and ranked third for GIR.

Lee Slattery – $7,200 – Given his undoubted talent, it remains something of a surprise that Lee Slattery doesn’t have more than two European Tour titles to his name.

That is probably down to the fact that tends to be horribly inconsistent, but one thing that is for sure is that when he’s hot, Slattery is capable of taking courses apart.

In the autumn last year he went on that wild run of three top-10 finishes in four starts, and perhaps he is on the cusp of something similar right now. The Englishman finished third at the Italian Open – an effort which included a round of 63, while a 66 at the Shot Clock Masters helped him to T19.

Slattery finished T13 on his last visit to Gut Larchenhof.

Jeff Winther – $7,000 – Another who should enjoy the relaxed climes of Gut Larchenhof is Jeff Winther, who will find less trouble to get into off the tee than normal.

That’s handy, because the Dane is actually very good with iron in hand – he ranks 48th for SG: Approach, and a natural consequence of that is that he makes plenty of red numbers too (25th for Birdie Average).

Winther showcased the best of his game by closing out the Rocco Forte Open with 65-66 a month ago; his seventh top-30 finish in twelve starts.

[/membership]

Cover photo via Instagram