Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – The PGA Championship
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the PGA Championship
2018 PGA Championship Fantasy Preview
One week ahead of the fourth and final major of the year, you suspect that the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational is an event that giveth with one hand and taketh with the other.
Imagine being Rory McIlroy and Ian Poulter this week: they were the pair chasing Justin Thomas hard heading into the final 18 holes, and both capitulated. McIlroy hit just 21% of fairways and 39% of greens in his final round, and he will now have plenty of work to do on the range to find his game before the PGA Championship kicks off on Thursday.
As for Poulter, his previously red-hot putter went ice-cold, losing more than a stroke to the field on Sunday. Poults’ confidence won’t be shot – that’s simply not his personality type – but he has gone from serious contender to long-shot fancy in the space of 24 hours.
Dustin Johnson waves his ball to acknowledge fans after making a…
Dustin Johnson waves his ball to acknowledge fans after making a birdie putt on the eighth hole green during the final round of the World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Contrast that to the good vibes cursing through Justin Thomas today, who reminded the golf world to not forget about him. It was a good week for him – and punters – this week, with the savvy recognizing that 30/1 about a player who had won six times since the start of 2017 was just madness.
In little over 18 months, JT has now bagged a major, a WGC title and a FedExCup trophy, leaving most of his contemporaries trailing in his wake.
The 25-year-old will now look to defend his PGA Championship crown at Bellerive CC in St Louis, Missouri this week. It’s a manic final session on the PGA TOUR, with a major, the FedExCup finals and the Ryder Cup just around the corner, and you sense that only the strong will survive such a punishing schedule.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
We can’t brag about a perfect 7 for 7 week because well, it was a non-cut event. However, we went heavy on Kyle Stanley who came in priced low and offered up 99 fantasy points with his solo 2nd finish.
Along with Stanley, our 1-2 punch of Rory and Day looked quite strong heading into Sunday but their aforementioned final round struggles lead to finishes of T-6 and T-10 respectively.
With that in mind, we congratulate JT on a strong WGC performance and look ahead to this week’s final Major of the season.
Justin Thomas poses with the Gary Player Cup after winning the World…
Justin Thomas poses with the Gary Player Cup after winning the World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone Country Club South Course on August 5, 2018 in Akron, Ohio. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
The 2018 PGA Championship Field
It’s the last chance to grab some major silverware in 2018, so it’s little surprise that some 110 of the world’s top 112 players will tee up at Bellerive – Europeans Joost Luiten and Bernd Wiesberger the only absentees with respective wrist injuries.
There are concerns about the back spasms which kept Justin Rose out of the WGC-Bridgestone, but he is expected to take his place in the field on Thursday.
Tiger Woods walks across the 18th hole during the World Golf…
Tiger Woods walks across the 18th hole during the World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational – Final Round at Firestone Country Club South Course on August 5, 2018 in Akron, Ohio. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Andrew Putnam has earned his place in the field following his efforts in last week’s alternate event, the Barracuda Championship. He finished on +47 – a good score in the stableford format! – to clinch the last place in the PGA.
Joaquin Niemann has been given a special invitation to compete following his stellar season; this will be the 19-year-old’s debut in a major.
This Week’s Course Preview
If you think you’ve heard the name ‘Bellerive Country Club’ before then maybe you have: it has hosted prior editions of the standard and senior US Open and PGA Championship before, as well as the BMW Championship in 2008.
Based in a suburb of St Louis, Missouri, Bellerive was first designed by Robert Trent-Jones in 1960, with a large overhaul coming in 2006 from his son, Rees Jones, an architect known as the ‘Open doctor’ for his work on Winged Foot and Torrey Pines.
Built around a creek which creates a hazard on nine holes, Bellerive will play as a Par 70 this week with just two Par 5s and at a lengthy yardage of roughly 7,300 yards, depending on tee placement.
The Wanamaker Trophy at Bellerive Country Club, home of the 2018 PGA…
The Wanamaker Trophy at Bellerive Country Club, home of the 2018 PGA Championship on May 15, 2017 in St. Louis, Missouri. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
The Bentgrass greens are large, as per Trent-Jones’ original design, but have been complicated since with the introduction of ‘greens within a green’: layers and ‘transitions’ with the green complexes themselves. You can expect little tiers and shelves to complicate matters, and place an emphasis on accurate approach.
The fairways are Zoysia, the strain of grass typically native to parts of Africa. Both Gary Player and Nick Price have won here, so perhaps that is an angle that the South African players will enjoy this week.
Those who have walked the course have commented on the back nine in particular, which appears to feature some outstanding holes. The eleventh will be a driveable Par 4, a move which was dictated when a pot bunker was removed by Rees Jones, although the players are well served to watch out for the pond that protects the right-hand side of the green.
Holes 13-16 are on the ridgeline, which means some dramatic elevation changes and elegant visuals for players off the tee.
And the 17th is a 597-yard behemoth of a Par 5, which is lined by the creek down the right-hand side. Will the field lay-up or attack the green?
There is a fantastic interview with Rees Jones on the American Society of Golf Course Architects website, that goes into great detail about Bellerive, but suffice to say the players can expect a challenging test this week.
The key is the length: six of the Par 4s will weigh in at over 450 yards two at 500+, the Par 5s will be topside of 600 yards (or near as damn it), and the 16th is a 220-yard Par 3. Oh, and the rough is said to be up.
Bellerive will provide an excellent test of all-round credentials this week.
Weather Forecast for St. Louis, MO
The forecast is nice and settled this week, with only some light thunderstorms on Tuesday scuppering matters.
Otherwise, we’re set for a sunny, dry and largely wind-free week in St Louis.
It really is a case of déjà vu across all four days: the sun will be out, the wind will increase through the day but be fairly negligible at all times, ad it’s unlikely that the atmospheric conditions will have any bearing on the outcome of the 2018 PGA Championship.
Last Year’s Results from The PGA Championship
After opening with a round of 73, it’s unlikely that Justin Thomas would have expected to triumph in last year’s edition of the PGA Championship.
But he fired straight back with a fantastic 66 to reinvigorate his tournament; albeit he was five strokes back from the runaway halfway leaders Kevin Kisner an Hideki Matsuyama.
A 69 intensified the pressure on the leaders – Kisner held top spot on -7 heading into the final round, with Matsuyama and Chris Stroud on -6 and Thomas and Louis Oosthuizen on -5.
Justin Thomas | Best Shots from His Final Round at the 2018 PGA Championship
Take a look at PGA Champion Justin Thomas’ Fourth and final Round at the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow. Thomas came into the round trailing but had an impressive final day to win the PGA Championship, his first major championship.
A chaotic final round saw five players tied for the lead heading into the back nine, before Matsuyama – one of the bunch – forged ahead. However, the Japanese ace bogeyed five of his remaining holes to fall out of contention.
Patrick Reed made three straight birdies heading towards the clubhouse, but he too made a bogey on the 18th to fall out of the mix.
Which left Thomas, playing smart, conservative golf, to hold his nerve and claim the first major of his career. How many more will follow is anybody’s guess.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for The PGA Championship this Week
It’s a major, and as expected the daily fantasy sites have raised their game accordingly!
There’s the chance to become a millionaire, and plenty of other opportunities to cash big in, possibly, the last huge slate of the year. Let’s take advantage…
- PGA $2.5m Fantasy Golf Millionaire: For just $20 entry, you could become a millionaire come Sunday evening. There’s 161k other players to contend with, but with the top 20% all banking profit there’s plenty of reasons to get involved.
- PGA $600k Fore: If you’re on a tighter budget then this contest offers maximum gain for minimal outlay. There’s a sweet $100k to the winner, and for just $4 entry the top 400 players trouser a handy $50.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for The PGA Championship
In the interview with Rees Jones that we linked to earlier in this preview, the famed architect tells us that “Bellerive requires shot makers,” i.e. that quality approach play will seize the day.
It’s hard to disagree with the man – he knows his own course, after all – and approaching these ‘greens within a green’ will require pinpoint placement, especially as the run-off areas will gobble up any errant iron play and lead to some tricky up-and-downs.
But we can’t ignore the fact that long, straight driving will surely be the key to success at Bellerive. Think about it: the longer you get down these lengthy fairways, the shorter the club in hand; ideal for holding these complex greens.
There’s an advantage to playing from the fairway, of course, but that is negated if you’ve got a two or three-iron in hand and a perilous approach to navigate.
So those ‘total drivers’ could well be the ones to follow in this week.
As ever at a Par 70 layout, the emphasis is on Par 4 Scoring; both from the perspective of making birdies and avoiding a booger. The Par 5s are three-shot holes for the shorter hitters – again, we’re leaning towards the considered bomber types – and will offer only very occasional looks at eagle.
Of all the majors, the PGA Championship is one where shock winners are more likely to be coronated. Without the complexity of Augusta or the US Open, or the unique skillset required to prosper on the Links in the UK, this is perhaps the fairest and easiest test of the bunch.
Keegan Bradley and Y.E. Yang can be categorized under surprise champion in the past decade alone, and guys like Jimmy Walker and Jason Dufner aren’t necessarily what we could consider obvious major contenders.
The unheralded Englishman, David Lynn, was second in 2012, so perhaps we can widen our net somewhat in our hunt for a champion.
As for correlating courses, anywhere that long, straight hitters thrive will be of use, and actually we can draw comparison to Firestone last week, which was more forgiving but again benefited those who could send their ball a long way down the fairway.
There are no unique weather conditions to consider here, so there’s no favoring wind players or the like.
Hit it long and straight, approach from a great height to hold the green, putt like a major winner. What could be simpler!
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The PGA Championship
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The PGA Championship
Top Tier Pick #1:
Dustin Johnson (Odds: 9/1, FPPG: 95.9, GPFP: 122.76 Salary: $11,400)
When we were making our shortlist for PGA Championship draft late last week, Dustin Johnson wasn’t on it.
He was struggling, to some extent, to get his game going at the WGC-Bridgestone – not all that surprising given that he had won the Canadian Open a week prior.
But after shaking off that winner’s hangover, DJ played the weekend in -10; nobody in the field went lower. Indeed, the crux of that was his re-found glory with the driver, with DJ crushing his average drive a ridiculous 347 yards on Sunday and still finding 64% of fairways.
More alarmingly, he gained more than two strokes on the field with putter in hand; a remarkable effort, and one which sends him to St. Louis in high spirits.
DJ has won on Zoysia before at the St Jude Classic, and his record in majors – 50% of his last ten outings have yielded top-10 finishes – is unrivaled.
It just feels like one of those weeks where drafting the best player in the world will yield dividends.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 1st
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 1st
- SG: Approach – 8th
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Brooks Koepka (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 77.8, GPFP: 97.24 Salary: $9,600)
A two-time US Open champion deserves maximum respect.
But more than that, look at his record in majors since the PGA Championship in 2016, where he finished T4. He’s twice taken the spoils in the US Open, finished T6 at the British Open and recorded T11 and T16 finishes in The Masters and PGA Championships of 2017.
So the pedigree is there, and you sense that Brooks’ mind and game sharpens on the biggest stage.
The key to Koepka’s game is his prodigious length off the tee, and it’s a formula that has seen him finish first and second in Par 70 events this term where there is the opportunity to club down. He will take an iron off some of the tees this week to ensure he finds the short grass, without losing too much length.
His love of the US Open is interesting, because Rees Jones is renowned for putting together courses of Open-esque complexity. It will be interesting to see how Koepka takes to the layout.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 14th
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 17th
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 18th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Paul Casey (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 75.6, GPFP: 86.93 Salary: $8,000)
It didn’t quite work out for Paul Casey at the British Open, but he never fired a round worse than 73 and his form either side of the Carnoustie trip has been sound.
His win at the Valspar Championship was followed by T15 at The Masters, T5 at the Wells Fargo and T2 at the Travelers Championship, and last time out he contended at the European Open over in Germany.
So all is good in the Casey camp, and as one of the best ball-strikers around he should enjoy this Bellerive challenge.
The Englishman has won all around the world but never picked up a major, despite nine top-10 finishes in the big ones. Perhaps that elusive victory could reveal itself this week.
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 5th
- SG: Approach – 6th
- Ball Striking – 25th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Kyle Stanley (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 62.3, GPFP: 49.86 Salary: $7,100)
Stanley was excellent in the WGC-Bridgestone, opening with an outstanding 63 and consolidating from there for a share of solo second.
He once again showcased his ball-striking, ranking third for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and it is that precision play that should ultimately see him contend in high profile events more often.
The 30-year-old has never really shone in majors, but his increasing comfortability in WGC events suggests he should have no problems in translating his form onto the big stage.
Key Stats:
- Ball Striking – 2nd
- Greens in Regulation – 5th
- Total Driving – 6th
Low-Tier Pick:
Billy Horschel (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 55.5, GPFP: 59.96 Salary: $6,900)
Bizarrely, it’s never quite happened for Billy Horschel in majors, which is a surprise given that he is a former FedExCup champion.
It’s a record he will be desperate to overturn, and at a layout that will reward his long, straight hitting B-Ho looks fair game at a sub $7,000 price.
His form has been good: a round of 75 at the Quicken Loans National ultimately preventing his T17 finish from becoming something rather more special, promptly followed by T2 at the Barbasol Championship.
He even missed the cut last time out at the Canadian Open but walked away with credit at -2, so as bargain basement picks go the Floridan is a classy option.
Key Stats:
- Ball Striking – 19th
- Total Driving – 20th
- SG: Putting – 26th
Sleeper Pick for The PGA Championship
Keegan Bradley (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 66.2, GPFP: 81.43 Salary: $7,500)
He’s not a player you would be putting your last dime on to win a major, that’s for sure, and yet oddly Keegan Bradley is a dual major and WGC winner.
All in all, he has five WGC top-10s and three major top-10s to his name, and while they did come a few years ago perhaps Bradley can sneak into the frame this week if his big stage game is anything to go by.
The form is strong enough, anyway. He carded rounds of 63 and 64 at the Canadian Open, and that came a matter of weeks after a T13 in the Greenbrier Classic.
One of the best drivers on the planet, can Bradley deliver another major masterclass this week?
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 1st
- SG: Approach – 2nd
- Ball Striking – 6th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for The PGA Championship
Aaron Wise (Odds: 175/1, FPPG: 56.6, GPFP: 45.25 Salary: $6,800)
There was a welcome return to form for Aaron Wise in the WGC-Bridgestone; a phenomenal driver and putter on his day.
After a run of six missed cuts, a T6 finish at Firestone was welcome, and while it is baby steps from Wise the improvement is eye-catching ahead of a trip to a layout that should suit his long, straight driving.
A winner on Zoysia this term at the Byron Nelson, the 22-year-old has bags of potential which could be realized on the major stage. Could he strike early in his career this week?
Key Stats:
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 7th
- Total Driving – 12th
- SG: Putting – 45th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2017-2018)
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