Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 3M Open
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 3M Open
3M Open Fantasy Preview
Even with the pressures of a howling wind, glass-like greens and the opportunity to become the number one ranked player in world golf, Jon Rahm displayed almost a Zen sense of calm as he closed out the win at the Memorial Tournament.
That goes against the grain of a man renowned for his Mediterranean passion and tempestuousness, but Rahm has shown in the past that tough conditions don’t necessarily faze him.
And boy was Muirfield Village tough. This was a major-level test with just nine players finishing under par as conditions – particularly over the weekend – became extraordinarily fast and challenging.
No wonder that Rahm called his Saturday 68 ‘one of the best rounds of my life’ on his way to becoming just the second Spaniard in history to climb to the top of the OWGR.
The forecast has a strong breeze blowing in Blaine, Minnesota this week for the 3M Open, although happily the host course plays a whole bunch easier than Muirfield Village did!
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Last week our guy was Cantlay, who ended up fading down the leaderboard over the weekend with a rough 79 on Sunday.
We had a T13 from Billy Ho and two Top 10s from our Sleeper Report in Reed and Day, but not enough to give us the big windfall of cash.
2020 3M Open Field
After the fantastic field that gathered for the second consecutive jaunt at Muirfield Village, it’s back down to earth with a bit of a bang this time around.
There’s still quality at the head of matters, with Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson and a chief protagonist from last week, Tony Finau, in the mix.
Tommy Fleetwood makes his first start anywhere since the COVID-19 outbreak – he has turned down a chance to play in the British Masters to be here, as have other European Tour regulars such as Erik van Rooyen and Bernd Wiesberger.
The defending champion, Matthew Wolff, will be looking to retain his title, while other notables include Bubba Watson, who seemed to find a bit of form at Muirfield last week, and the impressive Sahith Theegala, one of the finest amateurs on the planet.
This Week’s Course Preview
In previewing the inaugural 3M Open last year, we were drawn to some quotes by the tournament director Hollis Cavner, whose words proved to be rather prophetic.
He spoke of his desire not to be the ‘hardest golf course on the Tour’, and that ‘I think you’ll see 20 under par winning the tournament.’
Well, he wasn’t far away given that Wolff triumphed at -21 a year ago.
Arnold Palmer has a habit of designing ‘easy’ golf courses that can be overpowered, and that is the general vibe with TPC Twin Cities too, where the only real defense comes from the weather.
There are 27 water hazards on the real estate, but these aren’t a major concern for most in the field and indeed it’s the length of the track – 7,431 yards, with three Par 5s touching 600 yards each – that poses the biggest threat.
That said, while the vast majority will be laying up on the Par 5s, there are three drivable Par 4s too, and so clearly length could be a difference-maker this week.
The large Bentgrass greens at TPC Twin Cities will run at around 12 on the stimp, weather permitting, but generally speaking this is a flat, straight parklands course that the best players will absolutely lap up.
Weather Forecast for Blaine, MN
While the players will enjoy mostly sunny conditions in Blaine, the presence of a strong wind looks fairly consistent throughout the week.
Aside from a spot of rain on the Friday, according to the forecast, it will be sunny and cloudy throughout the four days with temperatures ranging from 84°F to 93°F.
But it’s the wind that is the most interesting. That could reach speeds of as much as 20 mph on the Friday according to the early forecast, with a rolling average of around 14 mph throughout the week. That will keep the players honest in an otherwise straightforward set of conditions.
Last Year’s Results for 3M Open
Matthew Wolff created a few unique slices of history in his extraordinary win here 12 months ago.
He became the first player since 2016 to win on a sponsor’s exemption, and he also became just the third man in history to win an NCAA individual championship and a PGA TOUR title in the same year. The other two? Tiger Woods and Ben Crenshaw. Decent company to keep…
It was a tournament powered by the number 62. That was what Scott Piercy fired in the first round to take the early lead, it was what Bryson DeChambeau scored in the second round to fire his way up the leaderboard and it was the number Wolff posted to take control of proceedings on Saturday.
And it was 65 that just about sealed the deal for the youngster on Sunday, with Bryson and Collin Morikawa one shot back in T2 having posted 66 themselves. An eagle on 18 was a sign of a young man with outstanding courage under pressure.
Matthew Wolff’s highlights | Round 4 | 3M Open 2019
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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for 3M Open this Week
These weak field events are beloved by serious, hardcore DFS gamers because it is here where we can leverage our knowledge – we know (we hope!) more about the PGA TOUR’s lesser lights than the casual player, and so we can really make that count here.
- PGA $300k Drive the Green: For $5 entry, you could hoover up a top prize of $50k and win a serious sum for a top-10 finish, all told. Finish in the top 20% or so and you are guaranteed to make a profit.
- PGA $100k Albatross: This is a tough week for the casual game to build a convincing line-up, so golf nuts can take advantage by trying their luck in a single entry contest like this – for $12, you have a chance to win the $10k top prize.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for 3M Open
With thick rough lining the fairways but larger-than-average greens, TPC Twin Cities should be a course where accurate long hitters thrive, rather than out-and-out bomb-and-gouge merchants.
Indeed, the scoreboard here in 2019 suggests as much, with arguably only Wyndham Clark fitting the bill for the latter.
Instead, quality ball-strikers who can send it off the tee were in the ascendancy, and while the wind looks set to be up we don’t expect any great deviation from that theme this week.
As ever, the three Par 5s are the easiest holes at TPC Twin Cities, but all told 13 holes averaged under par a year ago and two drivable Par 4s offered up some easy scoring opportunities too – the 379-yard tenth, for example, saw 134 birdies and 31 bogeys in 2019. Again, to reiterate, ‘straight length’ is crucial this week.
We’ll be looking for streaky putters too, because even though proximity on approach will be so crucial you also have to put your ball in the hole – that’s a given.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win 3M Open
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win 3M Open
Top Tier Pick:
Tony Finau (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 73.6, GPFP: 88.32 Salary: $10,900)
About three-fifths of the way through the Memorial Tournament, the sportsbooks offering ‘in running’ prices made Tony Finau an odds-on favorite to win.
As we know, there are no strokes gained metrics for psychology or course management, and ultimately it was decision-making – as much as stroke-making – that saw Finau collapse quite dramatically from his lofty position on the leaderboard.
We can use the super-tough conditions as mitigation, and relax in the knowledge that TPC Twin Cities won’t serve up anything quite as challenging.
This is a golf course that is perfect for both Finau and Dustin Johnson, but with the latter posting +16 at the wild Muirfield Village – including -3.12 strokes on the greens – he is perhaps worth swerving.
And so attention turns to Finau once again, a player of undoubted ability who WILL win a decent standard of PGA TOUR event soon. This course should suit his ball striking, and he seems to putt better on slicker greens – that goes against the normal grain of weak putter + fast greens = unmitigated disaster.
All things considered, Finau seems more likely than anyone else to win this week, and hence he has to be our top-tier play.
Key Stats:
- Approaches from Inside 100 Yards – 12th
- Birdie Average – 20th
- Driving Distance – 26th
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Erik Van Rooyen (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 58.2, GPFP: 46.57 Salary: $8,800)
The South African came away from Muirfield Village with plenty of credit on Sunday.
A T22 finish in tough conditions was made possible by gaining +2.02 strokes on approach, and given the wind and how fast the greens were running out that is no mean feat.
We expect Van Rooyen to thrive on Bermuda more prominently given his ‘European’ golf schooling, but he wasn’t too bad on the Bentgrass/Poa last week and actually delivered a putting performance that was above his baseline norm.
And the former University of Minnesota student will surely relish being back on ‘home’ soil.
Key Stats:
- Driving Distance – 14th
- SG: Approach – 20th
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 25th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Sepp Straka (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 47.8, GPFP: 38.26 Salary: $7,900)
Strong ball-striking is the name of the game for Sepp Straka, and he does tend to thrive in easier conditions – just take a look at his scores at the Workday Charity Open (69-70-69-70) compared to the Memorial (73-72-79-75) for evidence of that.
The Austrian has the requisite length to thrive at TPC Twin Cities, and he banked a top-10 finish at the recent Rocket Mortgage Classic in conditions not all that dissimilar to those expected this week.
This season alone Straka has three top-10s on the PGA TOUR, and in this weak field he will be looking to another of those to his collection at the very least.
Key Stats:
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 43rd
- SG: Off the Tee – 45th
- Driving Distance – 58th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Talor Gooch (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 62.0, GPFP: 47.07 Salary: $7,600)
After a lengthy absence it’s a return to this column for Charley Hoffman.
He hasn’t looked himself for quite some time, but just lately there have been signs that the four-time PGA TOUR winner is finding a bit of form.
Hoffman finished T41 at the Travelers Championship, but look at his four rounds: 67-67-65-73. You can imagine how that last round affected his final placing.
And then he followed up with a T7 at the Workday Charity Open; if his opening round had been better than 74 there, he would have gone very close.
So all is good in the Hoffman camp, and this quality campaigner looks ready to contend once again.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 20th
- SG: Approach – 66th
- Greens in Regulation – 76th
Low-Tier Pick:
Keith Mitchell (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 50.1, GPFP: 40.05 Salary: $6,900)
It’s been a really mixed bag of a season for Keith Mitchell and especially so since the restart, but he just seemed to find something at the Memorial.
He ranked sixth for GIR in extreme conditions – that’s an excellent sign given the conditions there, and the great news is that the greens are larger-than-normal at TPC Twin Cities, which negates the regularity that Michell will have to unfurl his below-par wedge game.
Comfortably with the length of this layout and happy enough in the breeze, Mitchell could make a mockery of his price this week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 28th
- SG: Putting – 34th
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 80th
Sleeper Pick for 3M Open
Troy Merritt (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 56.5, GPFP: 54.78 Salary: $7,500)
You could argue that the salary-makers have overreacted to Troy Merritt’s missed cut at Muirfield on Friday.
Conditions were far from ideal, and even so Merritt still gained strokes off the tee as the wind blew a gale.
Ranking fifth for SG: Approach at the Workday, and when you factor in his excellent baseline for putting (36th for SG: Putting) you have a sort of Frankenstein’s monster of the perfect profile at TPC Twin Cities.
T7 here last year, Merritt makes plenty of sense this week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 36th
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 48th
- Total Driving – 96th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for 3M Open
Sam Ryder (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 54.0, GPFP: 43.18 Salary: $7,300)
There’s a touch of quality to Sam Ryder’s iron play, and if he can iron together the other elements of his game then he can fly under the radar this week.
He drove the ball tremendously well at the Workday, and his combined ball-striking should leave him in good order on the greens here – necessary, because his putting stroke is not the greatest.
As we saw with Wolff here 12 months ago and the likes of Viktor Hovland at the Puerto Rico Open, these young bucks have a habit of seizing an opportunity when it presents itself, and in a weak field Ryder will be looking to make a name for himself.
Key Stats:
- Scrambling – 51st
- Birdie Average – 52nd
- SG: Approach – 56th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2019-2020)
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