Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2021 Farmers Insurance Open
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2021 Farmers Insurance Open
The 2021 Farmers Insurance Open Fantasy Preview
And it was always so.
Just a week after picking him in our sleeper shortlist for the Sony Open, Si-Woo Kim showed how foolhardy it is to jettison an in-form player when he swept to victory in the American Express on Sunday.
Maybe we should have known better – the Korean’s most famous moment in golf came when he won THE PLAYERS Championship on the Pete Dye designed TPC Sawgrass, and it was Dye who oversaw the Stadium Course in La Quinta where Kim claimed his third PGA TOUR title.
He showed plenty of class down the closing straight, birdieing two of his last three holes to clinch the win ahead of the fast-finishing Patrick Cantlay, whose final round of 61 brought to mind the fable of the Hare and the Tortoise….in more ways than one.
Onwards we go, and while the PGA TOUR stays in California for another week there’s a different feel and a clear step up in grade with the Farmers Insurance Open.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Last week was a little bit of a disappointment for our top dog Scottie Scheffler, who ended up missing the cut, and as mentioned earlier, we were just one week late on our Si-Woo Kim selection. But that’s how the fantasy golf cookie crumbles sometimes.
A few highlights from last week include our pick Abe Ancer finished T5, and our super-sleeper selection, Michael Thompson, who also ended up T5 on the week.
The 2021 Farmers Insurance Open Field
After a brief foray at the European Tour’s Abu Dhabi Championship, Rory McIlroy will be looking to build on a positive showing in the Middle East as he makes his first start on U.S. soil in 2021.
Jon Rahm, a late withdrawal from the American Express, has apparently recovered from a muscle injury in time to take to the tee here, while the likes of Xander Schauffele, Brooks Koepka and Patrick Reed add a touch of class to proceedings.
Harris English and Viktor Hovland, already winners this term, will be looking to double-up while those knocking on the door – the likes of Tony Finau, Sungjae Im and Ryan Palmer have top-fives in recent times – will be looking to break through.
Marc Leishman, who has just started to find a little form, will defend his title this week alongside a host of former Farmers champions, including Jason Day, Bubba Watson and Brandt Snedeker.
This Week’s Course Preview
Like the American Express, there will be two golf courses used this week in La Jolla, however these are a touch more testing than the easy-going fare served up in Cali last time out.
Torrey Pines has two courses, South and North, and while both are in operation this week it’s the former that really takes the headlines.
A former host of the U.S. Open, Torrey Pines South is relentlessly long at 7,698 yards for its Par 72, and it kind of goes without saying that length off the tee is a considerable advantage.
But there’s plenty more to the track than bomb-and-gouge, because with long rough lining the Kikuyu fairways there is plenty of danger lurking. The Poa Annua greens – which run at a slick 13 or so on the stimpmeter – are smaller than the PGA TOUR average, and so there could be plenty of scrambling and chipping required if the wind gets up (spoiler alert: it might just do that).
The South course plays host to three of the four rounds played, with the other taking place on the more amenable North layout.
Originally designed by William F. Bell and given an overhaul by Tom Weiskopf, this layout features larger Bentgrass greens and fewer hazards both off the tee and protecting the putting surfaces, so perhaps it’s no surprise that the scoring average is as much as two strokes lower here.
Weather Forecast for San Diego, CA
Unusually for the West Coast, conditions are not exactly ideal for stellar golf this week.
As of today, a high wind weather warning has been put in place in San Diego, and even come Thursday the gusts could still be reaching 15 mph.
Breezy on Friday too, matters should improve somewhat by the weekend according to the early forecast, although look at how cool it’s going to be throughout the 72 holes – a top temperature of just 60˚F is anticipated.
There’s more, too. Rain, to some degree, has been predicted for Thursday and Friday, so it will be interesting to see if that slows this quick course down – keep your eyes peeled to the latest forecast before completing your draft.
Last Year’s Results for the 2020 Farmers Insurance Open
A super Sunday 65 from Marc Leishman guided him to a one-shot victory over Jon Rahm here 12 months ago – but the big Aussie did not make it easy for himself.
A peerless -7 through his opening 13 holes on the Sunday, an understandable regression followed as the winning line came into view, and he played his next four holes in +1 to leave his hopes teetering.
Rahm’s back nine featured four birdies and an eagle after his front nine contained two bogeys and a double, and those early jitters ultimately opened the door for Leishman, who steadied himself and fired a wedge to just six feet on his way to birdieing the 72nd hole and clinching the title.
McIlroy and Torrey Pines specialist Brandt Snedeker shared T3, while Tom Hoge rounded out the top-five.
Marc Leishman shoots 7-under 65 | Round 4 | Farmers 2020
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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the 2021 Farmers Insurance Open this Week
It’s a classy event this week, and that calls for a top-notch slate of contests for gamers to sink their teeth into. Happily, the leading DFS sites have obliged!
- PGA $1M Pitch and Putt: There’s little doubt about what is required to succeed at Torrey Pines, and so we can draft with confidence – this top ranking contest on DK has a $1 million pool with the winner trousering $250k from their $20 investment.
- PGA $75k Dogleg: With so many options as far as the player pool is concerned, single entry events are a risky play but we really like to get involved in them when there is a clear path to glory. This $33 contest boasts a top prize of $7,500.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2021 Farmers Insurance Open
There’s no doubt about it – only the classiest of operators need apply for victory at Torrey Pines.
Leishman, Day, Rose, Rahm, Snedeker….all of the most recent champions here are either major winners or those who are/were pretty prolific at hoovering up titles on the PGA TOUR.
The reason for that is no coincidence – Torrey Pines South is a layout that rewards premium ball-striking and quality in all departments of the game, which explains the stellar honors board in the clubhouse.
You’ll want to be drafting players who are long off the tee but also, more often than not, keep their ball in play, who can hit approaches into fast greens – in the wind – with confidence, and those whose short game won’t let them down when the pressure is on.
Simple, really!
You’ll want your picks to do low on the North course, that is pretty much a pre-requisite actually, so making hay on the Par 5s in particular will be key there.
California, West Coast, wind, Poa Annua….you kinda know the drill by now, but as mentioned keep an eye on the weather forecast – significant rainfall will shift the focus towards iron play wizards who can approach receptive greens in good order.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2021 Farmers Insurance Open
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The 2021 Farmers Insurance Open
Top Tier Pick #1:
Jon Rahm (Odds: 7/1, FPPG: 92.1, GPFP: 73.68 Salary: $11,300)
When we drafted Jon Rahm for this event 12 months ago, he was considered a 14/1 shot by the sportsbooks.
Fast forward a year in which he has won both the BMW Championship and Memorial Tournament, and the Spaniard finds himself as the favorite to win the event – and we’re absolutely fine with that.
Normally an easy case could be made for Rory McIlroy at a layout where quality drivers tend to thrive, but an 8,000 or so mile trip to be in California is enough to give him the swerve.
There’s black marks against the likes of Schauffele (poor record at Torrey Pines, Reed (missed cut last week), Koepka (missed cut last week), Wolff (no form to speak of), Finau (is he a closer?) and so on, which enhances Rahm’s claims.
With a formline of 2-5-29-1 at Torrey Pines, we don’t need to wax lyrical about Rahm’s suitability for this test, and we’re even confident despite his withdrawal from the American Express – he did not want to scupper his chances at one of his favorite courses in golf this week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 6th
- Scoring Average – 17th
- Greens in Regulation – 38th
Top Tier Pick #2:
Cameron Smith (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 89.9, GPFP: 78.20 Salary: $8,500)
Maybe you think we’re overdoing the whole Australia angle, but dating back to 2006 we have seen Leishman and Day win this tournament and such luminaries as Nathan Green, Michael Sim and Adam Scott have all finished in the runners-up spot.
Why? Conditions in Californian are typically fast and wind swept, which reward those comfortable playing in a breeze and with a solid short game on and around quick greens – the caricature of an Australian golfer.
Whether we’ll proven to be correct in the long run remains to be seen, but Cameron Smith is another man from Down Under who – with a top-10 and top-20 in his last three trips to Torrey Pines – seems to enjoy it here.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 34th
- Scrambling – 35th
- SG: Putting – 42nd
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Adam Scott (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 79.3, GPFP: 67.36 Salary: $8,300)
A pretty poor time with the putter has skewed Adam Scott’s recent formline, with the Aussie himself declaring that he’s striking the ball as well as ever right now.
So T21 at the Tournament of Champions, T34 at The Masters and T41 last time out at the Sony Open don’t read that well, but rounds of 64 and 66 at the latter suggest that a thawing with the flat stick is imminent – and with the added confidence of knowing he’s hitting the ball well from tee-to-green, Scott could be a fearsome contender this week.
Australians seem to love it at Torrey Pines, and the fast, windy conditions will suit them – and Scott, pertinently for us, down to the ground.
Key Stats:
- Driving Distance – 14th
- SG: Average – 57th
- Scoring Average – 57th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Sam Burns (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 71.3, GPFP: 57.06 Salary: $7,700)
Can you name the player who missed the cut at the American Express despite gaining strokes on the field in every department, including +2.73 on approach, in the round he played at the Stadium Course?
That statistical anomaly is Sam Burns, who must be scratching his head at quite how he has managed to miss the weekend up the road at La Quinta.
Never mind, he may just go under the radar as a result, but this is a guy who is far more than a sleeper pick. Burns’ ball-striking is fast approaching outstanding levels, and remember this is a guy who can putt too.
Whatever work he’s been doing on the range is working, and while he will be looking to improve on a season’s formline of MC-7-34-MC-28-7 we can still draft Burns with some confidence.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 3rd
- SG: Approach – 29th
- Scoring Average – 37th
Low-Tier Pick:
Byeong Hun An (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 48.0, GPFP: 38.40 Salary: $7,500)
There was a welcome return to form for Byeong Hun An at the American Express, with his top-10 punctuated by gaining strokes on the field in all departments….yes, that even includes on the greens!
The Korean’s ball-striking is not in question, and statistically he has been one of the best chippers around for a couple of years now – that’s why he’s of interest when a wind and small green sizes combine to make missed approaches almost inevitable.
Can he putt? No, but there are those who believe that faster greens actually help weaker putters, because they act as something of a leveler and take some of the guesswork out of the flat stick business.
Only time will tell on that, but if An takes his normal ball striking and his slightly improved putting to Torrey Pines then why can’t he thrive?
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 25th
- SG: Approach – 27th
- Scrambling – 57th
Sleeper Pick for The 2021 Farmers Insurance Open
Matt Jones (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 70.3, GPFP: 90.66 Salary: $7,000)
Another pick, another Australian.
While something of a bomb-and-gouge merchant even as he turns 40, Matt Jones has a bit more nuance to his game than maybe many give credit for – as successes at the tight Waialae (T11) and the Stadium Course at PGA West (T21) in his last two outings attests.
With a T4 at the Bermuda Championship also in the ledger, it’s clear that Jones enjoys a short, squally coastal test, but what about Torrey Pines? Well, he’s made five cuts from seven here, with a best of T13, and that’s not bad at all from a sleeper play.
Will he add to the proud Aussie roll of honor at Torrey Pines?
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 20th
- SG: Putting – 29th
- Driving Distance – 42nd
Alternative Sleeper Pick for The 2021 Farmers Insurance Open
Scott Stallings (Odds: 250/1, FPPG: 47.5, GPFP: 42.28 Salary: $6,600)
Something of a curveball picks is Scott Stallings, whose recent efforts have been disappointing to say the least.
But dig a bit deeper. He missed the cut on the number at the American Express despite gaining a huge +3.13 strokes on approach (albeit from one round). What does that mean? Not a lot when taken in isolation, but the point is that this is not a guy whose game has completely deserted him.
Intriguing is that he won this event in 2014, and while we wouldn’t suggest a repeat is on the cards here, but Stallings was T2 the year after and so there’s no doubting that Torrey Pines suits him down to a tee.
Key Stats:
- Scrambling – 3rd
- SG: Approach – 36th
- Scoring Average – 96th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2020-2021)
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