BETS: Matchups, Faders, Straight Up Winners, & More // PGA Championship

After essentially a full year with no major championship golf, we have arrived at PGA Championship week. There’s a ton of star power in the FULL 165 man field. At first glance, you see Justin Thomas (+900) and Brooks Koepka (+1100) as the betting favorites this week out at TPC Harding Park in San Francisco, and for good reason.

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JT is fresh off of a win this week in Memphis and Brooks Koepka was right behind him. If not for a wayward tee shot into the water, Brooks could have sent it to a playoff. Let’s hop into the picks for this week.

To Win the PGA Championship: Brooks Koepka (+1100)

I like Brooksy to take the 3 peat coming off a fantastic week. He ranked 20th in the field in ball striking and hit over 76% of greens. Surprisingly, he lost strokes putting this week, so if he can find the putter just a bit more, there’s no reason he doesn’t take the PGA Championship for the 3rd year in a row.

Longshot to Win The PGA Championship: Billy Horschel (+6600)

Horschel is one of those guys like Jimmy Walker who seems like they could sneaky win a major if they put the right cards together. Billy ranks 56th in Tee To Green, which is a stat to pay attention to this week. He posted a T13 at The Memorial, which was playing like a major championship course and he ranked 16th in ball striking there which is big considering his SG: Approach isn’t one of his big strengths.

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To Finish Top 10: Webb Simpson (+300)

There are a ton of Par 4’s that exceed 450 yards this week, and Webb Simpson ranks NUMBER ONE in Par efficiency 450-500 yards. He’s been so solid since the return of the tour and this provides you a little bit of value.

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Tournament Matchups

Brooks Koepka (+125) over Rory McIlroy

This matchup befuddled me when I saw Rory at -155. It’s major championship golf, so you never know, but this value is too good to pass up on Brooks.

Tom Lewis (-110) over Matt Wallace

Tom Lewis had a 14 under weekend after his course record 61 on Saturday at the WGC this weekend. I love Tom Lewis and I’m playing him in my DFS lineup at 7100 salary. Look for him to beat Wallace this week, who struggles tee to green. 

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Christiaan Bezuidenhout (-130) over Cameron Champ

We’ll call him Bez for character count purposes. He’s been playing fantastic recently, and even though Cameron Champ is great off the tee, I don’t think he’s the type of big bomber that flourishes in a major championship layout.

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Bernd Weisberger (-130) over Martin Kaymer

I’m not a huge fan of Kaymer and I love the way Weisberger has been playing. The lock of the weeks are 3-1, so let’s keep it going for a major championship. Good luck ladies and gentlemen.

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